Dortmund vs Leverkusen: Bundesliga Preview, Predictions and Bet Builder Tips

10th April 2026

Borussia Dortmund host Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga top-six clash that means a lot more to the hosts than the visitors. Dortmund sit 4th on 57 points from 34 games and are on a five-game winning run – they are in the form of their season at the right time. Leverkusen are 2nd on 69 points but their recent form reads DWDLD – the defending champions have wobbled.

Form and Lineups

Borussia Dortmund arrive with five consecutive Bundesliga wins and real momentum. Bayer Leverkusen have taken just two points from their last five – a draw, a win, a draw, a loss and a draw. The gap between these two sides in current form is significant.

Lineups are unconfirmed at time of writing – check the Statz lineups tab for the latest predicted XIs before placing.

Statz Projections

The Statz team projections reflect Dortmund’s recent dominance. The hosts are projected to generate more shots and a superior goal expectancy at Signal Iduna Park. Leverkusen still have individual quality but their form data does not support the idea they turn it on here.

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Deniz Aytekin takes charge. Across 10 Bundesliga games this season he has averaged 21.60 fouls per game and 3.80 yellows per game. With two competitive sides going at each other in a high-stakes fixture, Aytekin’s card count could climb.

Bet Builder Tips

All legs from the Statz Bet Builder tool. Combined price: 3.04 with Bet365.

1. Fabio Silva – 1+ Foul (2/9)

Fabio Silva has committed at least one foul in all five of his last five games – 100% hit rate. He averages 1.2 fouls per game and presses high, putting defenders under pressure. Last 5 values: 1, 1, 1, 2, 1.

Last 5: W W W W W

2. Ibrahim Maza – 1+ Foul (1/4)

Ibrahim Maza has also fouled in every one of his last five appearances – 100% hit rate averaging 1.6 fouls per game. At 1/4 he is a short price leg but one of the safest available. Last 5 values: 2, 1, 2, 2, 1.

Last 5: W W W W W

3. Maximilian Beier – 3+ Shots (3/10)

Maximilian Beier has hit 3+ shots in four of his last five games – 80% hit rate. He is averaging 2.8 shots per game with values of 0, 5, 3, 3, 3 in his last five. At 3/10 the 80% rate holds up well against the implied probability.

Last 5: – W W W W

4. Ezequiel Fernandez – 1+ Shot (8/15)

Ezequiel Fernandez has registered at least one shot in four of his last five – 80% hit rate. At 8/15 the value is decent given his shot volume from midfield. Last 5 values: 1, 2, 1, 0, 1.

Last 5: W W W – W

Combined price: 3.04 – Bet at Bet365

The Angle

Dortmund’s form is excellent right now – five wins on the spin – and Leverkusen have been inconsistent in recent weeks. Signal Iduna Park is a difficult place to go even when you are at your best. Dortmund to win looks the standout pick here. The Bet Builder at 3.04 is built around Beier’s shot volume and the fouls inevitability from Silva and Maza. Decent risk-reward for a mid-week Bundesliga play.