Bundesliga Final Day Betting Tips and Predictions – 16 May 2026

15th May 2026

It’s the last day of the Bundesliga season and all nine games kick off simultaneously at 2:30 PM. Bayern have already wrapped the title (27W 5D 1L, 86 points – the runaway winners of the division), but second through fifth is still live, Dortmund are battling for the Champions League places, and three teams are fighting to avoid the drop. Here is the Statz breakdown of every game.

The Title Party – Bayern vs Koln

Bayern are champions and this is a lap of honour at the Allianz Arena – but they will not be taking the foot off the pedal. They are the most dominant attack in the Bundesliga by some distance: 1st for goals (3.5/game), 1st for shots on target (8.5/game) and 1st for big chances created (4.8/game). Koln sit 14th and have won just once in their last 10.

Harry Kane has 33 Bundesliga goals this season – 1st of 268 players. He is the obvious anytime scorer play at manageable odds. Michael Olise leads the Bayern SOT charts in recent form (1.3/game, 13 in the last 10). Referee Deniz Aytekin averages 3.92 yellows and 0.25 reds per game – one of the most card-happy officials in the division.

*Statz angle:* Bayern over 2.5 goals. The projection model has them at 3.82. Against a Koln side with one win in ten, this is a structural play, not a hope.

View Bayern vs Koln H2H stats | Bayern team profile | Koln team profile

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European Places – Dortmund vs Bremen

Dortmund sit 2nd on 70 points, needing a result to cement their Champions League spot. They project as clear favourites here – 2.1 goals/game this season (3rd in Bundesliga), and the model has them at 1.71 goals against Bremen’s 1.17.

Maximilian Beier leads the Dortmund fouls chart (1.9/game in the last 10, 37th in the Bundesliga overall). Cameron Puertas is the combative force for Bremen (1.7/game). Referee Bastian Dankert is one of the calmer officials – 3.21 yellows per game.

Serhou Guirassy tops the Dortmund projected scorer chart at 0.47. Bremen are 15th in the table with just 32 points – survival is already confirmed but motivation will be low.

*Statz angle:* Dortmund win and Guirassy to score is the cleanest combination from this game.

View Bremen vs Dortmund H2H | Dortmund team profile

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RB Leipzig vs Freiburg – Top-Half Pride

Leipzig sit 3rd with 65 points, Freiburg 7th with 44. Leipzig have been in excellent form – W8 D0 L2 in the last 10 – and rank 2nd in the Bundesliga for big chances created (3.6/game) and 3rd for shots on target (6.0/game).

Christoph Baumgartner is the standout stat from this fixture. He leads the entire Bundesliga for fouls committed (61, 1st of 400 players) – averaging 2.10/game in the last 10. That is a yellow card waiting to happen with referee Sascha Stegemann overseeing proceedings (3.85 yellows, 0.23 reds per game – one of the highest red card rates in the division). Baumgartner also leads Leipzig’s recent SOT charts (1.1/game, 11 in the last 10). He projects as top goalscorer at 0.41.

The model has Leipzig at 1.87 goals to Freiburg’s 1.56. Leipzig are the quality play.

*Statz angle:* Baumgartner to commit 2+ fouls is worth a look given his recent volume. Leipzig to win is the outright angle.

View Freiburg vs RB Leipzig H2H | RB Leipzig team profile

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Frankfurt vs Stuttgart – European Race

Stuttgart are 4th on 61 points and need to hold their Europa League spot. Frankfurt are 8th with 43 points – midtable consolidation. Stuttgart project as slight favourites here (1.93 goals to Frankfurt’s 1.55) and have the better recent form: W5 D3 L2 in the last 10, 25 goals scored.

Deniz Undav is Stuttgart’s projected top scorer (0.55) and has been in fine form. Ermedin Demirovic is Stuttgart’s most combative player – 1.4 fouls/game in the last 10. Referee Tobias Welz is the most yellow-card-happy official on the day (5.08 per game across 13 games this season). Both teams combined average decent foul volumes in this fixture.

*Statz angle:* Over 3.5 yellow cards is a structural angle here – Welz’s average sits above 5/game and this has UEFA place pressure on one side.

View Frankfurt vs Stuttgart H2H | Stuttgart team profile

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Leverkusen vs Hamburg

Leverkusen sit 6th on 58 points – just outside Europe. Hamburg are 11th and mid-table safe. The model has this one fairly one-sided: Leverkusen 2.72, Hamburg 1.06. Patrik Schick is the standout projected scorer at 1.02 – that is an unusually high individual projection.

Referee Tobias Stieler averages 0.29 reds per game – the highest red card rate of any referee on the final day card.

*Statz angle:* Schick anytime scorer is the headline. The model has him well above 1.0 expected goals.

View Leverkusen vs Hamburg H2H | Leverkusen team profile

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Relegation Shootout – Heidenheim vs Mainz and St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg

The most dramatic games of the day. St. Pauli (18th, 26pts) and Heidenheim (17th, 26pts) both need points to survive – they are level on points at the bottom. Wolfsburg (16th, 26pts) are also in the mix – three clubs on 26 points separated only by goal difference.

St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg: Both sides are in dire form (W1 D3 L6 for each in the last 10). The model projects a near draw: St. Pauli 1.31, Wolfsburg 1.34. With survival at stake, expect a tense, physical affair. Referee Daniel Siebert averages 3.53 yellows and 0.13 reds per game.

Heidenheim vs Mainz: Heidenheim sit 17th and need to win. They have a favourable model projection (1.93 to 1.59 for Mainz) and home advantage. Referee Robert Hartmann averages 23.42 fouls per game – highest of the day.

*Statz angle:* Both relegation games are highly unpredictable. The fouls and card markets are the value here given the stakes and referee profiles.

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Full Bundesliga Fixture List – 16 May, All 2:30 PM

Fixture	H2H
St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg	H2H
Freiburg vs RB Leipzig	H2H
Bremen vs Dortmund	H2H
Bayern vs Koln	H2H
Frankfurt vs Stuttgart	H2H
Gladbach vs Hoffenheim	H2H
Leverkusen vs Hamburg	H2H
U Berlin vs Augsburg	H2H
Heidenheim vs Mainz	H2H

Check the Bundesliga competition hub on Statz for live projections and bet builder data across all nine games.