Celtic vs Hearts Predictions, Betting Tips and Scottish Premiership Odds
15th May 2026
A genuinely compelling Scottish Premiership fixture to close out the weekend – and one that matters. Hearts sit top of the table on 70 points (W21 D7 L5), three ahead of Celtic in 3rd on 67 (W21 D4 L8). Kickoff is 12:30 PM on Saturday 16 May at Celtic Park.
Form and Context
Both sides arrive in excellent nick. Celtic have won 8 of their last 10 (W8 D1 L1, 21 scored, 12 conceded). Hearts are even better over the same stretch – W7 D2 L1, 16 scored, just 7 conceded.
Celtic are the dominant attacking side in the Scottish Premiership. They rank 1st for big chances created (3.6/game), 1st for passes (606.6/game), 3rd for goals (1.9/game) and 3rd for shots on target (5.6/game). This is not just a good team – they are the most technically complete side in the division on those metrics.
Hearts have been defensively exceptional. Their 1.8 goals/game (5th in the SPL) is backed by 17.2 tackles/game (5th), and their goals-against record over the last 10 speaks for itself. The Hearts title challenge has been built on solidity and efficiency.
The Statz model has Celtic as home favourites – projected 1.75 goals to Hearts’ 1.08.
Player Stats to Watch
Daizen Maeda is Celtic’s most dangerous outlet. He sits 5th in the Scottish Premiership for shots on target (32 this season) and has averaged 1.0 SOT/game across the last 10 fixtures, leading the Celtic charts. His energy and directness at Celtic Park makes him a constant threat.
Lawrence Shankland is the Hearts striker to watch. He ranks 3rd in the SPL for goals (15 this season) and averaged 1.0 SOT/game in recent form (10 in the last 10). He is the focal point of the Hearts attack and their most reliable finisher.
Arne Engels has been one of Celtic’s key creative forces – 1.2 fouls/game in the last 10 puts him second in the Celtic fouling charts. Cláudio Braga leads the Hearts charts with 1.4/game, contributing both to their defensive work and their aerial presence.
No referee data is available for this fixture on Statz.
Betting Angles
Celtic win is the structural play. Home advantage, superior attacking output across the season, and the model’s projected scoreline all point the same way. Hearts have been excellent but coming to Celtic Park with title pressure still alive is a different proposition.
Daizen Maeda 1+ shots on target is a consistent market given his volume. Averaging 1.0 SOT/game in the last 10, he is the most reliable SOT bet in the Celtic squad at current form.
Over 2.5 goals is live. Celtic score 1.9/game at home, Hearts concede 7 in the last 10. Even with Hearts’ defensive solidity, Celtic’s attacking output in front of their own crowd makes this a watchable total.
Lawrence Shankland anytime scorer is worth considering for each-way purposes. A 15-goal season, Hearts needing something from this fixture – Shankland will be central to everything they try to do.
The Angle
Celtic’s home form and superior big-chance creation make them clear favourites. Hearts have been the best side in Scotland this season by points but Celtic at Celtic Park, in form, is a different challenge to anything they have faced away from home. Celtic win, Maeda to threaten, Shankland to test the keeper.
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