Freiburg vs Aston Villa Predictions and Betting Tips – Europa League
19th May 2026
Europa League semi-final second leg. Aston Villa are 2nd in the EL table on 21 points from 8 games, Freiburg 7th on 17. Both sides in reasonable shape – Freiburg W6 D1 L3 in their last 10, Villa W5 D2 L3. Villa edge the projections on every attacking metric and come into this as favourites.
Lineups and Player News
Predicted lineups not yet published by Sportmonks for this fixture. Check the H2H page on Statz closer to kickoff for confirmed lineup data.
Recent Team Performance
Freiburg have been solid at home – W6 in their last 10, just 14 conceded in that run. Villa are the more prolific side though: 23 goals scored in 10, with only 13 conceded. The away side have the stronger attacking numbers heading into this one.
Interesting Player Stats
Ollie Watkins is 5/5 last 5 for both 1+ shots and 1+ fouls – averaging 2.8 shots and 1.0 fouls per game. Morgan Rogers is 5/5 for 1+ shots, averaging 2.0 per game. Referee Francois Letexier averages 4.78 yellows and 24.11 fouls per game – among the busiest in European football.
Betting Angles
Statz projects Villa at 1.63 goals, 4.52 SOT vs Freiburg 1.17 goals, 3.68 SOT. Villa are meaningfully stronger on every attacking projection. Letexier handling this fixture is a significant edge for card markets – over 4 yellows per game combined with physical Bundesliga foul rates. Check Statz Europa League projections for the full breakdown.
Bet Builder – 2.87/1 on Midnite
– Igor Matanovic 2+ Fouls @ 1.73 | 3/5 last 5 | avg 2.6 fouls/game
– Johan Manzambi 2+ Shots @ 1.52 | 4/5 last 5 | avg 2.6 shots/game
– Youri Tielemans 1+ Shot @ 1.40 | 4/5 last 5 | avg 1.6 shots/game
– Ollie Watkins 1+ Foul @ 1.61 | 5/5 last 5 | avg 1.0 fouls/game
Summary and Suggestions
Villa to win is the main market – backed by superior projections across goals, shots and SOT. Watkins anytime scorer is the individual market. The Letexier factor makes cards markets live across the board. Full H2H breakdown and live projections on Statz.