Norway vs Senegal Predictions and Bet Builder Tips | World Cup 2026
21st June 2026
Norway face Senegal in a fascinating World Cup Group C encounter in the early hours of Monday morning, and this is the tightest fixture on the card. Norway are slight favourites at 43.8%, but Senegal at 29.74% means this is far from a foregone conclusion.
Time to break down the head-to-head data and find where the value lies.
Form Check
Norway edge this at 43.8% win probability, with the draw at 26.46% and Senegal at 29.74%. That is about as competitive as World Cup group games get. Neither side can afford to lose on Matchday 2, so expect both teams to go for it.
Statz Projections
- Goals: Norway 1.41 vs Senegal 1.12
- Shots: Norway 12.06 vs Senegal 10.03
- Shots on Target: Norway 4.87 vs Senegal 4.02
- Corners: Norway 4.72 vs Senegal 4.19
- Fouls: Norway 11.12 vs Senegal 12.73
- Yellow Cards: Norway 1.43 vs Senegal 1.67
BTTS at 50.88% is the headline here – essentially a coin flip on whether both sides find the net. Over 2.5 goals sits at 46.36%, suggesting this could be a tight, cagey affair or a proper open contest. The margins are razor thin across every metric.
Wilton Pereira Sampaio is the man in the middle for this one.
Key Players
Erling Haaland is the most dangerous player on the pitch by a country mile. He is projected for 3.33 shots per game, 1.99 SOT per game, and 0.62 goals – his 1+ shots projection sits at 96.42% and 1+ SOT at 86.33%. When the big man is on, Senegal will need bodies behind the ball.
Alexander Sorloth (2.05 shots/g, 0.28 goals projected) provides a secondary threat, while Martin Odegaard (1.66 shots/g) pulls the strings in behind. Antonio Nusa is one to watch too – 91.54% for 1+ fouls drawn and 87.51% for 1+ shots. He will be a nuisance all night.
For Senegal, Sadio Mane (1.56 shots/g, 0.26 goals projected) carries the main goal threat, with Ismaila Sarr (1.34 shots/g) offering pace and directness. In midfield, Idrissa Gueye (90.37% for 1+ tackles) will look to disrupt Norway’s build-up, and Krepin Diatta leads the tackling projections at 92.57% for 1+ tackles.
Bet Builder
Four legs from the Statz Bet Builder:
- Haaland 1+ SOT – 86.33% projection. He averages nearly 2 SOT per game. This is bread and butter for the big Norwegian.
- Krepin Diatta 1+ Tackles – 92.57% projection. Senegal will need to defend and Diatta is their go-to disruptor.
- Antonio Nusa 1+ Fouls Drawn – 91.54% projection. Tricky, direct, and he invites challenges.
- Idrissa Gueye 1+ Tackles – 90.37% projection. The veteran midfielder is always in the thick of it.
The Angle
This is all about BTTS at 50.88%. Both sides have genuine attacking quality – Haaland and Mane are match-winners on their day – and the projections suggest neither defence is dominant enough to keep a clean sheet comfortably. The bet builder play here leans on defensive actions from Senegal’s midfield duo plus Haaland doing what Haaland does. In a game this tight, stacking high-probability player props is the smart move rather than trying to pick the winner.
All projections and stats via statz.ai. Odds are indicative and subject to change.