France vs Iraq Predictions and Bet Builder Tips | World Cup 2026
21st June 2026
France take on Iraq in their second World Cup Group H fixture on Sunday evening, and this one looks about as one-sided as the data suggests. Les Bleus are projected for 3.0 goals and a staggering 21 shots – this could get ugly for Iraq.
Let’s dig into the numbers on statz.ai and see where the value sits.
Form Check
France go into this as overwhelming favourites with an 86.88% win probability. That tells you everything. Iraq sit at just 3.61% to pull off a shock – and honestly, even that feels generous given the talent gap on show here.
Statz Projections
Here is where this fixture really separates itself:
- Goals: France 3.0 vs Iraq 0.49
- Shots: France 21.19 vs Iraq 5.87
- Shots on Target: France 8.45 vs Iraq 1.94
- Corners: France 7.04 vs Iraq 2.59
- Fouls: France 10.68 vs Iraq 12.38
- Yellow Cards: France 1.32 vs Iraq 1.86
France projected for over 21 shots is absurd. That is the kind of shot volume that turns previews into formalities. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 67.77%, while BTTS sits at 37.22% – Iraq are not expected to offer much going forward.
Referee Drew Fischer takes charge of this one.
Key Players
Kylian Mbappe is the obvious headliner. His shot projections are elite – 99.69% for 1+ shots, 97.91% for 2+, and 92.75% for 3+. He is also projected at 93.86% for 1+ shot on target. Against a side like Iraq, he should be licking his lips.
Marcus Thuram (97.21% for 1+ shots) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (95.67%) offer further firepower, while Michael Olise (95.54%) and Ousmane Dembele (93.8%) will look to pile on from the flanks.
For Iraq, Merchas Doski is projected at 91.2% for 1+ tackles – he will have plenty of defending to do.
Bet Builder
Four legs from the Statz Bet Builder:
- Mbappe 3+ Shots – 92.75% projection. He could hit this before half-time against this opposition.
- Thuram 1+ Shots – 97.21% projection. Near-certainty in a game where France will dominate possession.
- Olise 1+ Shots – 95.54% projection. The Crystal Palace man will get chances on the flank.
- Doski 1+ Tackles – 91.2% projection. Iraq will be doing a lot of last-ditch work.
The Angle
This is a mismatch, plain and simple. France projected for 21 shots against a side projected for fewer than 6 – the volume alone makes this a field day for the French attack. Over 2.5 goals at 67.77% looks solid, but the real play is stacking France player shots in the bet builder. Mbappe at 3+ shots with a 92.75% projection is the anchor – build around him and let France do what France do.
All projections and stats via statz.ai. Odds are indicative and subject to change.