Tunisia vs Netherlands Predictions and Betting Tips – World Cup 2026

24th June 2026

Tunisia face the Netherlands in the early hours of Thursday morning (00:00 BST) in what looks like a Group F mismatch on paper. The Dutch sit top of the group on 4 points and have been rolling, while Tunisia are bottom with zero points and a -8 goal difference after being dismantled 5-1 by Sweden and 4-0 by Japan.

It hasn’t been pretty for the Eagles of Carthage. But can they at least salvage some dignity in their World Cup farewell? The data paints a clear picture.

Lineups and Player News

Lineups aren’t confirmed yet. Tunisia will look to Hannibal in midfield – the former Man United academy product averages 1.84 projected tackles and 0.12 assists per game, plus he draws a massive 2.29 fouls per game. He’s the heartbeat. Ali Abdi is projected for 2.19 tackles per game from left-back and leads their fouls chart with 17 in 10 games (1.70 per game) – a proper battler. Ellyes Skhiri (1.94 projected tackles) adds steel in the middle.

The Netherlands have frightening depth. Memphis Depay leads the projected goals chart at an incredible 0.66 per game with 3.32 shots. Cody Gakpo isn’t far behind at 0.58 goals and 3.01 shots per game, while Brian Brobbey (0.59 goals, 2.50 shots) and Donyell Malen (0.61 goals, 3.07 shots) offer devastating alternatives. Ryan Gravenberch anchors midfield with 1.59 tackles, and Denzel Dumfries contributes 0.25 goals and 0.41 assists per game from right-back. It’s almost unfair.

Recent Form

The Netherlands have been excellent – W6 D3 L1 in their last ten. That sole defeat came against Algeria (0-1 at home), but either side of that they’ve been clinical. They hammered Sweden 5-1, drew 2-2 with Japan, beat Norway 2-1, and crushed Malta 4-0 and Finland 4-0. They’ve scored 25 and conceded just 8 in that run. In the group stage, they drew 2-2 with Japan and then thumped Sweden 5-1 – they’re peaking at the right time.

Tunisia‘s form makes grim reading. W2 D3 L5 in their last ten, with just 9 goals scored and 21 conceded. Their wins came against Uganda (3-1) and Haiti (1-0) – both at weaker opposition. Against quality, it’s been one-way traffic: 0-5 Belgium, 0-1 Austria, 1-5 Sweden, 0-4 Japan. The defensive numbers are alarming. They’ve conceded 9 goals in two World Cup group games.

Group F Standings

Netherlands are top on 4 points (W1 D1) with +4 goal difference (7 scored, 3 conceded). Tunisia are last on 0 points with a grim -8 goal difference. This game is about whether Tunisia can stop the bleeding.

Interesting Player Stats

The head-to-head data shows a massive quality gap. The Netherlands are projected for 15.51 total shots and 6.27 on target versus Tunisia’s 6.54 and 2.25. Netherlands corners are projected at 5.71 versus 3.38. The Dutch will be camped in Tunisia’s half for large spells.

Memphis Depay’s 3.32 projected shots per game is one of the highest in the entire tournament. If he starts, he’s having shots – it’s that simple. Tijjani Reijnders (2.56 shots, 0.32 goals per game) has been quietly brilliant from midfield, and Quinten Timber’s 1.47 tackles and 0.21 goals per game from the middle of the park show how much the Dutch dominate in every area.

For Tunisia, Ali Abdi’s 17 fouls in 10 games (1.70 per game) leads the team. Yan Valery sits second with 15 (1.50). Hannibal’s 0.27 yellow card rate makes him a booking waiting to happen. If you’re looking at Tunisia players, the story is fouls and physicality rather than attacking output.

Betting Angles

Projections

Projected scoreline: Tunisia 0.54 – 2.39 Netherlands. That’s close to a three-goal swing, and given Tunisia have conceded 9 in two games already, it could be even wider. The Dutch are projected for more than twice as many shots on target (6.27 vs 2.25). This should be comfortable.

Bet Builder Slip

The Statz Bet Builder has a 4-leg slip at 2.70 (bet365):

• Omar Rekik 1+ tackles – 100% hit rate last 5 (values: 2, 2, 1, 2, 1). Avg 1.60 per game. Projected 1.23 tackles. Tunisia’s centre-back will be busy dealing with Dutch attackers all game.
• Jan Paul van Hecke 1+ tackles – 100% hit rate last 5 (values: 1, 2, 2, 2, 1). Avg 1.60 per game. Projected 1.47 tackles. Ranked 135th in the World Cup tackles chart.
• Marten de Roon 1+ fouls – 100% hit rate last 5 (values: 2, 2, 2, 2, 1). Avg 1.80 per game. The veteran midfield enforcer. Always involved in the dirty work.
• Ali Abdi 1+ fouls – 100% hit rate last 5 (values: 1, 3, 4, 1, 1). Avg 2.00 per game. Tunisia’s top fouler with 17 in 10 games. He’s going to be chasing Dutch wingers all evening.

At 2.70 it’s a lower payout, but these are about as safe as bet builder legs get. All four have hit every game in the last 5, and the game context – Tunisia defending desperately – makes tackles and fouls almost inevitable.

Referee

Katia Itzel Garcia takes charge. Her averages are 3.50 yellows and just 11.50 fouls across 2 games – that’s actually quite low on the fouls count. However, with Tunisia’s aggressive style (13.41 projected fouls per game) and Ali Abdi’s 1.70 fouls per game, this game should naturally produce more stoppages than her average. Keep the fouls legs but don’t go overboard on cards.

Summary and Suggestions

There’s only one way this is going. The Netherlands have the firepower to put Tunisia away comfortably, and given the Eagles have conceded 9 in two group games, the Dutch should add to that tally. Depay, Gakpo, Brobbey, Malen – pick your poison. Tunisia’s best players are their battlers and foulers, not their goalscorers (top projected scorer is Omar Rekik at 0.13 – a centre-back).

The bet builder at 2.70 is the most sensible play. The price reflects how likely it all is, but 100% hit rates across the board give you confidence. This game is about Dutch dominance and Tunisian survival – the tackles and fouls markets capture that dynamic perfectly.