United States vs Paraguay Preview – World Cup 2026 Group C Tips & Predictions
11th June 2026
United States vs Paraguay – World Cup 2026 Group C
Kick-off: Friday 13 June 2026, 02:00 BST | Competition: World Cup 2026 – Group C
The hosts take centre stage. The United States open their home World Cup against Paraguay in what should be a proper atmosphere under the Friday night lights. This is the game Gregg Berhalter’s squad has been building towards – years of European moves, MLS growth, and high-profile friendlies all pointing to this moment.
The US beat Paraguay 2-1 in a friendly back in November, so they’ll fancy themselves here. But the form either side of that? Inconsistent. A 5-1 hammering of Uruguay was sandwiched between a loss to Korea Republic and defeats to Belgium and Portugal. This is a team that can look world-class one night and fragile the next.
Paraguay, meanwhile, come in under the radar. They beat Greece 1-0, lost to Morocco 2-1, and thumped Nicaragua 4-0 in their final warm-up. They’re scrappy, well-organised, and have enough quality through Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso to cause problems on the break.
Lineups aren’t confirmed yet – we’ll update closer to kick-off once they drop.
Statz Projections
The Statz model projects United States 1.26 – 0.84 Paraguay. A narrow home win on paper, but this isn’t a blowout projection by any means.
The US are projected for 11.21 total shots and 4.31 shots on target, while Paraguay sit at 9.43 and 3.38 respectively. Corners favour the hosts at 4.93 vs 3.54.
The fouls picture is interesting – Paraguay are projected for 13.09 fouls and 2.04 yellow cards, compared to 11.38 and 1.61 for the US. Andres Cubas (1.79 fouls/game projected) and Diego Gomez (1.54 fouls/game) will be busy in Paraguay’s midfield.
Recent Form
United States (last 10): LWDWWWLLWL – W5 D1 L4, 18 scored / 17 conceded. That defensive record is concerning for a host nation. The 5-2 loss to Belgium and 2-0 defeat to Portugal in March exposed real vulnerabilities at the back. But the 5-1 win over Uruguay and 3-2 over Senegal show this attack can be devastating when it clicks.
Paraguay (last 10): LDWDLLWWLW – W4 D2 L4, 12 scored / 10 conceded. More compact, more controlled, but less explosive. They drew 2-2 with Japan and beat Greece 1-0 away – they don’t roll over against quality opposition.
Interesting Player Stats
Christian Pulisic is projected for 2.20 shots and 0.75 shots on target per game – the highest on the US side alongside Folarin Balogun (2.16 shots, 0.92 SOT). Those two will be the main creative outlets, with Pulisic also leading assists projections at 0.27/game.
For Paraguay, Alex Arce is projected for 1.84 shots and leads the goalscoring projections at 0.23/game. He’s been prolific recently – averaging 3.8 shots over his last five games. Julio Enciso (2.20 shots projected) will be the other dangerman, capable of the spectacular.
Tyler Adams anchors the US midfield with 2.03 tackles projected, while Paraguay’s Cubas is a wrecking ball at 3.77 tackles projected.
Bet Builder
Four legs from the Statz Bet Builder, combining for odds of 3.74 on bet365:
Leg 1: Antonee Robinson 1+ Shots
Odds: 1/2 (bet365) | Hit rate: 100% (5/5) | Last 5: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
The Fulham left-back has had at least one shot in every one of his last five appearances. He gets forward relentlessly and with the US expected to dominate possession, he’ll bomb into the box regularly. As reliable as it gets.
Leg 2: Alex Arce 2+ Shots
Odds: 1/4 (bet365) | Hit rate: 100% (5/5) | Last 5: 3, 2, 4, 7, 3
The Paraguay striker is projected for 1.84 shots and has averaged 3.8 over his last five. He’s hit 2+ in every single one. Even at the short price, this feels like a lock to anchor the bet.
Leg 3: Mark McKenzie 1+ Tackles
Odds: 1/2 (bet365) | Hit rate: 100% (5/5) | Last 5: 1, 1, 1, 1, 3
The US centre-back is consistent rather than spectacular here – exactly one tackle in four of his last five and a burst of three in the other. Projected at 1.06 tackles, he should get at least one when dealing with Paraguay’s counter-attacks.
Leg 4: Folarin Balogun 1+ Fouls
Odds: 1/3 (bet365) | Hit rate: 100% (5/5) | Last 5: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
Balogun commits exactly one foul per game like clockwork – five in a row at that mark. He’s projected at 0.89 fouls, which is close to the line, but the recent consistency is hard to argue with.
Combined odds: 3.74. This is a compact, high-probability bet builder. Three legs at 100% hit rate and all four priced short individually – the combined price gives you nearly 4/1 on four near-certainties. Add to bet365 betslip.
The Angle
The US should win this, but the 1.26 – 0.84 projected scoreline tells you it won’t be comfortable. Paraguay are well-drilled, physical, and have the midfield enforcers in Cubas and Gomez to disrupt the American rhythm.
The bet builder at 3.74 is the cleanest play here – four 100% hit-rate legs combining for a price that actually gives you something worth backing. Every leg is anchored in genuine, repeatable patterns rather than one-off spikes.
If you want a single-market angle, look at the fouls. Paraguay are projected for 13.09 fouls and the US for 11.38 – that’s over 24 combined. This will be a physical, stop-start affair, especially with a South American side involved in a World Cup group opener. The referee won’t get a quiet night.
Odds via statz.ai, correct at time of writing.