Norway vs England Preview – World Cup 2026 Predictions, Bet Builder and Tips

10th July 2026

Norway vs England. Erling Haaland vs Harry Kane. One of the most individually compelling match-ups left in the World Cup. Kickoff is 10pm BST on Saturday night, and England will know exactly what’s at stake – win and they advance in strong shape, slip up and it gets complicated. The model thinks England get the job done, but Norway are far from a comfortable night out.

Form and Standings

Norway sit 2nd in their group on 6 points (W2 D0 L1, GD +1). Last 10 form: WLDWDWWLWW – W6 D2 L2. Twenty-one goals in ten games, 14 conceded. Norway are capable of winning games but they leak. That defensive record is a concern against an England side who know how to take their chances.

England lead their group on 7 points (W2 D1 L0, GD +4). Last 10: WDLWWWDWWW – W7 D2 L1. Eighteen goals, seven conceded. Tight. Consistent. The Three Lions have been solid if unspectacular, winning games rather than dazzling – but that’s fine at a World Cup.

Statz Projections

The model projects Norway 1.07 – England 1.74. England’s edge is clear – projected to outscore Norway by almost a goal per game in this matchup. Statz gives England the higher expected output across shots, shots on target, and corners, reflecting both their form and their attacking quality at this stage of the tournament. Data via statz.ai projections.

Harry Kane leads England’s goalscoring projections at 0.63 per game – the highest of any England attacker. Erling Haaland tops Norway’s numbers at 0.51. Both strikers in form, both capable of winning the game by themselves. But Kane’s projection being significantly higher is telling.

Referee: Clement Turpin

Clement Turpin takes charge for France. The experienced UEFA official has refereed 4 World Cup games, averaging 22.00 fouls per match and 3.50 yellows per game. Red card rate sits at 0.50 per game – higher than average at this tournament. Turpin won’t be shy to reach for his pocket if the game gets physical.

Norway’s fouling leader is David Moller Wolfe at 1.10 fouls per game. England’s most frequent fouler is Elliot Anderson at 1.00 per game. Both sides commit regularly enough to make card markets interesting under Turpin.

Bet Builder – Norway vs England @ 2.90 (bet365)

Four legs, all carrying a 100% hit rate across the last 5 games. Stat data from statz.ai bet builder.

Combined price: 2.90 @ bet365

The Angle

Kane is the headline pick here and rightly so. He has registered a shot on target in every single one of his last five World Cup appearances – averaging 2.0 per game. That’s the kind of consistency you build a bet builder around. He’s the tournament’s top scorer by projection, and Norway’s defensive record (14 conceded in 10) suggests they won’t be suffocating England’s attack.

Odegaard is the obvious Norway entry point – he’s their best player and their creative hub. Even in games Norway struggle, he gets on the ball, drives forward, and gets into shooting positions. He’s hit 1+ shots in every one of his last five. Nico O’Reilly brings a bit more risk at 1.44, but the 100% hit rate backs it up – the defender has been active in attack across his recent run of games, picking up at least one shot in each. Hauge rounds it out with a consistent tackle return that doesn’t require him to have a brilliant game – just to compete, which he does.

The 2.90 combined price for four legs all sitting at 100% is the kind of slip the Statz bet builder was built to find. Norway need to attack to win – that suits both Odegaard and the tackles market. England need to press for the result – that suits Kane and O’Reilly. Conditions are aligned. Back it on bet365.

Odds correct at time of writing. Bet responsibly. 18+. BeGambleAware.org