Norway vs England Predictions and Betting Tips – World Cup Quarter-Final
10th July 2026
Norway. The team that beat Brazil. The team nobody wanted to draw in the quarter-finals. And yet here they are, standing between England and a World Cup semi-final at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. If you had this one on your bingo card back in June, you were either very brave or very lucky.
This is a fascinating tie. England come in as clear favourites – Statz projections give them a 52.9% chance of winning in 90 minutes – but Norway have already proven they can hurt anyone. The real question is whether Erling Haaland can do to England what he does to everyone else. Kick-off is Saturday 11 July at 22:00 BST from Miami.
Check the full Norway vs England head-to-head breakdown on Statz for all the data behind this preview.
Lineups and Player News
Lineups have not been confirmed for this one yet. Both managers will be keeping their cards close to their chests ahead of such a high-stakes fixture.
For Norway, expect Haaland to lead the line, with Alexander Sorloth a threat from deeper positions and Martin Odegaard pulling the strings in midfield. Sander Berge provides the defensive cover, while Julian Ryerson and Kristoffer Ajer shore up a back line that conceded twice to Brazil and still found a way to win. Leo Ostigard is likely to partner Ajer at centre-back.
For England, Harry Kane leads the attack with Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka likely supporting from midfield and wide. Phil Foden adds creativity, Declan Rice sits as the anchor, and Reece James provides attacking thrust from right-back. Marc Guehi and John Stones look set to continue as the centre-back pairing.
Recent Form
England have been quietly brilliant. Seven wins and two draws from their last ten, conceding just seven goals across that run. Their last five: five wins on the bounce. They edged past Mexico 3-2 in the last 16 and saw off Congo DR 2-1 in the round of 32. Solid, progressive, not always pretty – but they keep winning.
Norway’s form is more chaotic but arguably more exciting. Six wins, two draws and two defeats in their last ten. They lost 4-1 to France in the final group game – which looked bad at the time – but have since beaten Ivory Coast 2-1 and, most memorably, stunned Brazil 2-1 in the round of 16. That Brazil result is the one that changes everything. This is a Norway side that does not know how to feel scared.
The contrast in styles sets this up nicely. England are disciplined and hard to beat. Norway are direct, physical and built around one of the most dangerous strikers on the planet.
Key Player Stats
Let’s talk Haaland. Statz projects him at 0.51 goals, 1.91 shots on target and 3.20 shots in this game – the highest shots projection of any Norway player by a distance. He is the entire attacking threat packaged into one man. If England can keep him quiet, they will likely win. If they can’t, all bets are off.
On the England side, Kane leads the projections at 0.63 goals, 1.48 shots on target and 2.96 shots. Ivan Toney projects at 0.52 goals from what would likely be a substitute role, while Ollie Watkins brings 0.42 goals projected. Bellingham chips in at 0.29 goals projected – he has the ability to change the game entirely with one moment of quality.
In the foul department, Norway are a niggly side. David Moller Wolfe, Ryerson and Sorloth all average 1.1 fouls per game in their last ten. England’s Elliot Anderson leads at 1.0 fouls per game with Kane and Bellingham both at 0.9. There could be bookings in this one – worth keeping in mind for any card markets.
For deeper player data, explore the World Cup stats hub on Statz.
Betting Angles
Statz has England win at 52.9%, with the odds sitting at 1.85 – there is a bit of value there based on the model. Norway are out at 4.10 to win in 90 minutes, reflecting the gap in quality but not the chaos they are capable of causing.
Goals markets are interesting. BTTS is projected at 54.22% (odds 1.67) and Over 2.5 goals comes in at 53.28% (odds 1.73). Given England’s 1.74 projected goals and Norway’s 1.07, a 2-1 England win feels like one of the more likely outcomes.
The standout value play flagged by Statz: Under 25.5 Total Match Shots at 1.83 with Ladbrokes, with a 4.06% edge on the model. Norway’s style can be direct and efficient rather than shot-heavy, and England tend not to pepper the goal unnecessarily. Worth a look.
On the anytime scorers, Haaland at whatever price you can find is the obvious Norway punt. Kane is always worth backing to score in knockout games. If England dominate possession and push Bellingham forward, his 0.29 projected goals understates how dangerous he becomes in big moments.
Verdict
England should win this. The squad depth, the defensive organisation and the home continent advantage (well, same hemisphere) all point their way. Statz gives them the edge across the board, and their five-game winning streak in this tournament suggests they are building nicely.
But Norway at a World Cup quarter-final, having already put Brazil to the sword? You dismiss them at your peril. Haaland only needs one chance. One mistake from Stones or Guehi, one moment of chaos, and Norway could be in a semi-final.
England to win, but keep an eye on both teams to score. This has goals in it.
All projections and stats via Statz. Check the full H2H page for live updates as lineups are confirmed.