England vs DR Congo Predictions and Betting Tips – World Cup 2026 Round of 32

30th June 2026

Form and Context

England topped Group L with seven points from three games – two wins and a draw, scoring six and conceding just two. It’s the kind of steady, controlled qualifying campaign that won’t get pulses racing but tells you everything about a side that knows how to manage tournament football. The Three Lions have been hard to break down and clinical when it matters.

DR Congo come into this as one of the best third-place finishers from Group K. Their record reads one win, one draw and one loss, with four scored and three conceded. That’s a side capable of causing problems going forward, but they’ve shown vulnerability defensively. Getting through as a best third-place team takes resilience, but there’s a reason they finished third rather than second.

England should feel confident here. Group winners against a team that scraped through – this is exactly the draw you want in the Round of 32.

Statz Projections

Statz projects England at 1.81 goals in this one, with a match total of 2.33. That puts under 3.5 goals at a hefty 79.32% probability – which feels right for a knockout game where England will control tempo and limit risk.

The shot numbers are telling. England have been averaging 21.8 shots per game in the tournament, with around 7 on target. DR Congo sit at 10.75 shots per game with roughly 2.75 on target. That’s a massive gap in quality and volume – England should dominate territory and chances.

Corners follow a similar pattern. England’s projection of 6.16 corners dwarfs DR Congo’s 2.86. When one team is camped in the opposition half, those numbers tend to stack up quickly.

Referee

Adham Makhadmeh takes charge here. Across 8 games he’s averaged 2.88 yellows per game, 0.13 reds and 15.25 fouls. That’s a relatively lenient whistle – he lets the game flow rather than reaching for the pocket every few minutes. In a knockout tie, that should suit England’s rhythm-based approach. DR Congo might fancy their chances of getting stuck in without too much punishment, but it also means England’s technical players will have more time on the ball.

Bet Builder – 3.11 on bet365

Four legs here, all grounded in tournament shot data from Statz. Combined odds sit at 3.11 on bet365.

Brian Cipenga (DR Congo) 1+ Shots – 1.50

This is the standout leg. Cipenga has hit 1+ shots in all five of his last appearances – a 100% hit rate. He’s averaging 2.2 shots per game with a last-five sequence of 3, 1, 2, 2, 3. Even if DR Congo spend large stretches without the ball, Cipenga finds ways to get his shot off. At 1.50 this is solid.

Harry Kane (England) 3+ Shots – 1.20

Kane at 3+ shots has landed in all five of his last outings – 100% hit rate, averaging 3.8 per game. His recent sequence of 3, 3, 7, 3, 3 shows consistency with one explosive game mixed in. Against a DR Congo defence that’s already conceded three in the group stage, Kane will get his chances. Short price, but it’s doing the heavy lifting for good reason.

Ivan Toney (England) 1+ SOT – 1.20

Toney has managed 1+ shot on target in four of his last five – an 80% hit rate. He’s averaging 1.4 SOT per game with a recent run of 0, 1, 1, 1, 4. That one blank is worth noting, but the overall trend is positive. If he starts or gets decent minutes off the bench, the target should be within reach.

Anthony Gordon (England) 1+ SOT – 1.44

Gordon’s 1+ SOT has landed in four of five recent appearances – 80% hit rate, averaging 0.8 per game. His last five reads 1, 1, 1, 1, 0 – four consecutive hits followed by one miss. He’s been a direct, willing runner who gets into shooting positions. At 1.44 there’s decent value given the consistency.

The Angle

England should handle this. They’ve been the better side by every metric that matters – shots, shots on target, corners, goals scored, goals conceded. The projections back that up with 1.81 expected goals against a team that leaked three in the group stage.

This isn’t a game where England need to be spectacular. Control possession, limit DR Congo’s transitions, and let the individual quality do the talking. The bet builder at 3.11 leans into shot volume from players who’ve been consistently delivering all tournament – that’s the play.

Knockout football can throw up surprises, but everything in the data points one way here.

Kickoff: 1 July 2026, 5pm BST

Full H2H and projections on Statz