Colombia vs Ghana Predictions and Betting Tips – World Cup 2026
2nd July 2026
Colombia have been quietly ruthless in this group – and the data suggests Ghana are in for a long night in their final group game on Friday.
Group Standings and Form
Colombia sit top of the group on 7 points from three games (W2 D1 L0, GD +3). Across their last ten matches, they have won six, drawn two and lost two – scoring 16 and conceding just 8. That is the record of a team that knows how to control games.
Ghana are third on 4 points (W1 D1 L1, GD 0). The wider form is alarming – just two wins from their last ten, with six defeats and 15 goals conceded. They beat Panama and drew with England in the group, but the loss to Croatia exposed some serious defensive fragility.
What the Projections Say
The Statz projections paint a one-sided picture. Colombia are projected for 1.87 goals, 14.18 shots and 5.55 shots on target. Ghana? Just 0.63 goals, 7.78 shots and 2.62 on target. Colombia should have nearly double the shot volume and more than double the output on target.
Corners favour Colombia too – 4.88 to 3.31. The fouls count is closer (Colombia 13.94, Ghana 14.48), which makes sense given Ghana will need to disrupt Colombia’s rhythm to stay in the game.
Players to Watch
Luis Suarez leads Colombia’s projected goalscoring at 0.49 per game, with Luis Diaz and Jhon Cordoba both at 0.40. That is three genuine goal threats all firing at once. Diaz is projected for 2.90 shots per game – he is going to be a constant menace from the left.
For Ghana, Jordan Ayew is their top projected scorer at just 0.15. That tells you everything about the gap in quality up front. Thomas Partey will be key in midfield – projected for 2.14 tackles per game – but he is fighting a losing battle in terms of overall team output.
On the foul front, Gustavo Puerta leads Colombia with 16 fouls in his last 10 (1.60/game), while referee Clement Turpin averages 22.00 fouls and 3.50 yellows per game across four matches this tournament. Expect plenty of stoppages.
Referee
Clement Turpin takes charge. Four games this tournament: 3.50 yellows, 0.50 reds and 22.00 fouls per game. He is not afraid to brandish cards and with both teams projected for 13-14 fouls each, the booking count should tick over nicely.
Bet Builder Picks
Here is a four-leg bet builder priced at 13/6 (3.17) on bet365.
Brandon Thomas-Asante 1+ Shots (2/5) – 100% hit rate across his last five, averaging 1.8 shots per game. The Ghana forward is always willing to have a go from distance and even in a game where his side will be under pressure, he should get at least one effort away.
Daniel Munoz 1+ Fouls (1/5) – 100% hit rate in his last five, averaging 1.6 fouls per game. The Colombia full-back is an aggressive defender who gets stuck in. With Turpin’s whistle-happy approach, this looks like a formality.
Gustavo Puerta 1+ Fouls (1/5) – Another 100% hit rate in his last five, averaging 1.4 fouls per game. Colombia’s midfield enforcer leads the team’s foul count across the last 10 games and is projected for 1.75 fouls here.
James Rodriguez 1+ Shots on Target (4/7) – 80% hit rate across his last five, averaging 0.8 SOT per game. James is projected for 0.92 SOT and has been Colombia’s creative fulcrum. Against a Ghana side expected to sit deeper, he should find shooting opportunities.
Verdict
Colombia should win this comfortably. The projections, form and group position all point one way. Ghana have battled hard in this group but the quality gap is significant – especially in attack. Back Colombia to take the three points and look to the bet builder for added value at just over 3/1.
Check the full head-to-head breakdown on Statz for the complete data picture before kickoff.