Alaves vs Barcelona Predictions – 13 May 2026
11th May 2026
Ten wins from ten. Not nine wins and a draw. Not ten wins with a couple of close calls. Barcelona have won every single one of their last 10 league games, scoring 24 and conceding 6. They travel to an Alaves side that is fighting for their lives in the relegation zone. The mismatch here is extreme.
Form and Context
Barcelona are in historic form. W W W W W W W W W W. They sit first in La Liga on 91 points with a goal difference of +60. They are the dominant force in Spanish football right now and nothing from the data suggests that’s changing.
Alaves are in serious trouble. 18th in La Liga on 37 points, GD -13, in the relegation zone. Their last 10: two wins, four draws, four defeats. 18 goals scored, 22 conceded. This is a club in distress playing one of the greatest sides in Europe.
Lineups aren’t confirmed yet on Statz – check the H2H page for team news closer to kickoff.
Statz Projections
Barcelona project 2.02 goals, 16.89 shots, 5.66 shots on target and 5.61 corners. Alaves project 1.30 goals, 11.35 shots and 3.96 shots on target.
Markets: Alaves 23.55% / Draw 23.47% / Barcelona 52.98% away win. BTTS at 63.1%, Over 2.5 at 64.49%. Barcelona clean sheet at 27.28% – possible but Alaves have enough firepower to nick one.
Top scorer projection: Ferran Torres leads Barcelona’s projections at 0.47 expected goals for this fixture. Check the full La Liga projections for more.
Referee and Fouls
Fouls leaders over the last 10: Antonio Blanco (Alaves) leads his side with a huge 20 fouls at 2.00 per game – he’ll be busy against Barcelona’s movement. Fermin Lopez leads Barcelona at 17 fouls and 1.70 per game. Expect cards with Alaves defending desperately.
Bet Builder – 2.94 @ bet365
Fair warning: 2.94 is a very short price for a four-legger. That tells you these legs are highly likely to land – but it also means the return is modest. Flag it, include it, use it as part of a wider acca if you want the price boosted.
- Dani Olmo – 1+ fouls – Olmo is active and physical in midfield, picks up fouls regularly.
- Raphinha – 1+ shot on target – Near certainty given Barcelona’s attacking volume.
- Ferran Torres – 1+ shot on target – Projecting 0.47 goals, he’ll be in the thick of it.
- Mariano Diaz – 1+ fouls – Alaves will foul a lot defending, and Mariano is no exception.
Build your own legs at the Statz Bet Builder Tool. The short price reflects how strong these legs are on the data.
The Angle
The Barcelona W10 run is the real story here. Ten wins from ten in La Liga. They are 52.98% to win away at a relegation-threatened Alaves – that’s lower than you might expect given the form, which tells you Alaves at home do at least give it a go.
Over 2.5 at 64.49% is the most attractive standalone market. BTTS at 63.1% is also compelling – Alaves will score against most sides and Barcelona are prolific. If you’re playing this game, you want goals.
All projections and stats via Statz. Full fixture data at statz.ai/h2h/alaves-vs-barcelona/19439601.