Man City vs Crystal Palace Predictions – 13 May 2026
11th May 2026
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace on a Wednesday night. City chasing second place, Palace trying to stay above the drop zone scrap. Statz projects City at 2.52 goals and gives them a 69% win probability. This one’s not complicated – but there’s still money to be found in the details.
Form and Lineups
City’s form is excellent: W W W D W in the last five, with seven wins and three draws across their last 10, 21 goals scored and just 8 conceded. They’re locked in at second, 74 points, GD +40.
Palace are wobbling: W D L L D in the last five, three wins and three draws and four defeats in the last 10. They’ve shipped 15 goals and scored 12 over that run. Sitting 14th on 44 points, this is a difficult trip.
Man City (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Nunes, Guéhi, Aké, O’Reilly; B. Silva, Reijnders; Semenyo, Cherki, Doku; Haaland
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1): Henderson; Canvot, Lacroix, Richards; Mitchell, Kamada, Wharton, Muñoz; Sarr, Johnson; Strand Larsen
Full lineup and H2H data on Statz here.
Statz Projections
Manchester City project 2.52 goals, 18.01 shots, 6.22 shots on target and 5.58 corners. That’s a dominant performance profile. Palace project 0.99 goals, 7.90 shots and 2.69 shots on target – they’ll be compact and looking to nick something.
Markets: City 69.09% win / Draw 18.23% / Palace 12.68%. BTTS sits at 57.73%, Over 2.5 at 67.99%. City clean sheet at 37.25% – not negligible given Palace’s attacking output. See all Premier League projections on Statz.
Referee Watch
Stuart Attwell is in the middle. He averages 21.45 fouls per game and 5.14 yellows – that’s a fairly card-happy rate. Worth keeping an eye on with a few foul-prone players in the mix.
Fouls leaders over the last 10: Nico O’Reilly leads City with 14 fouls at 1.40 per game. Muñoz tops Palace’s charts with 14 fouls also at 1.40 per game.
Bet Builder – 8.26 @ bet365
Four legs, four clear edges from the Statz data:
- Ismaila Sarr – 2+ shots – One of Palace’s livelier attackers, and with the game likely to open up, he’ll get his shots in.
- Jeremy Doku – 2+ shots – Form hit rate 80% vs implied 66.7% – that’s a +13 percentage point edge. Doku is relentless in attack.
- Nico O’Reilly – 1+ fouls – This is the standout edge. Form hit rate 100% vs implied 76.9% – a +23pp gap. He’s committed a foul in every game in the last 10. Every single one.
- Jean-Philippe Mateta – 1+ shot on target – Mateta is a reliable SOT merchant even from the bench or in limited appearances.
Combined at 8.26 on bet365. Build your own version at the Statz Bet Builder Tool.
The Angle
The O’Reilly fouls leg is the one to anchor this around – 100% in last 10 vs 76.9% implied is a genuine edge, not a coincidence. Doku at +13pp is also worth highlighting. City win at 69% is the headline number, but Over 2.5 at 67.99% is the cleanest standalone play if you want something simpler.
City are in a groove and Palace are exactly the kind of mid-table side they tend to take apart at the Etihad. The data agrees.
All projections and stats via Statz. Full fixture data at statz.ai/h2h/mancity-vs-palace/19427191.