Villarreal vs Levante Preview – La Liga Predictions and Bet Builder Tips
1st May 2026
Different worlds collide at the Estadio de la Ceramica on Saturday. Villarreal are 3rd in La Liga with 65 points, a goal difference of +21, and European football almost certainly already secured. Levante are 19th with 33 points and a GD of -10 – deep in the relegation zone and desperate for anything they can get. When you put these two realities on a football pitch, the model gives Villarreal 58.5% and Levante just 18.4%. This is a match with real stakes on one side and none on the other.
Full match data: Villarreal vs Levante H2H on Statz.
Lineups and Player News
Villarreal have firepower across the board. Alfon Gonzalez leads with 1.45 SOT and 0.48 goals projected. Tani Oluwaseyi brings 1.34 SOT and 0.44 goals – two dynamic attacking options. Georges Mikautadze comes in at 1.32 SOT and 0.45 goals. And then there is Gerard Moreno – 0.59 goals projected per game, the highest in this fixture. He is the danger man.
Levante come here knowing they need a result but the numbers do not favour them. Their projected output of 1.03 goals and 3.25 SOT tells the story of a side that has been leaking throughout the season.
Recent Form
Villarreal: WWLWDWLWDW – W6 D2 L2 in the last ten. 15 scored, 12 conceded. Not completely watertight but consistently winning when it matters. Six wins from ten for a side in the European spots is solid.
Levante: LLWDDWLWWD – W4 D3 L3. A slightly more mixed picture but the context is what matters – they are fighting for La Liga survival and every dropped point brings relegation closer.
Statz Projections
Villarreal project 2.01 goals, 5.77 SOT, 5.56 corners, 11.69 fouls and 1.99 yellow cards. Levante come in at 1.03 goals, 3.25 SOT, 3.99 corners and 2.18 yellow cards. The yellow card projection for Levante (2.18) is the highest in this preview – a desperate side, under pressure, fouling to keep Villarreal at bay.
BTTS sits at 55.7%, over 2.5 goals at 58.6%. Both markets are around the coin-flip mark but the combined goals projection (3.04) nudges over.
Betting Angles
- Villarreal win – 58.5%: Home side, 3rd in La Liga vs a relegation-threatened Levante. The model backs it clearly.
- Gerard Moreno to score: 0.59 goals projected – highest of any player in this fixture. At home, in form, against a vulnerable Levante backline.
- Levante Over 1.5 yellow cards: They project 2.18 YC per game and will be fighting for their lives against one of the better sides in the league. Cards will come.
- Over 2.5 goals – 58.6%: Villarreal project just over 2 goals alone. With Levante needing to attack to stay up, the game could open up.
Bet Builder
Four legs from the Statz SGP data on bet365:
- Jose Luis Morales Tackles 1+ – 1.53: 100% hit rate, 5 from 5. Reliable tackler who gets into the game consistently.
- Ivan Romero Shots 2+ – 1.40: 80% hit rate, 4 from 5. Two or more shots in four of his last five – an active presence who gets into shooting positions.
- Ayoze Perez Tackles 1+ – 1.40: 80% hit rate, 4 from 5. Active midfielder who contributes defensively.
- Dani Parejo Fouls 1+ – 1.57: 80% hit rate, 4 from 5. Deep-lying midfielder who picks up fouls regularly in competitive fixtures.
Combined at approximately 5.25 on bet365.
Summary
Villarreal at home to a struggling Levante side. The Gerard Moreno scorer market is the standout individual angle with 0.59 goals projected. Levante’s yellow card projection of 2.18 per game is the kind of number that makes the card markets worth visiting. Villarreal to win at 58.5% is the main result play – back the home side in European form against a side fighting to stay in the division.