Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Preview – Premier League Predictions and Bet Builder Tips
1st May 2026
Ten games unbeaten. Not a single loss all month. Bournemouth have quietly built one of the best unbeaten runs in the Premier League this season – W3 D7 L0 – and they carry that momentum into Sunday’s opener against Crystal Palace. Palace sit 13th on 43 points and have had a mixed run – W4 D3 L3 in their last ten. The model gives Bournemouth 48.9% to win at home, with the draw at 24.3% keeping it open. This is a competitive fixture but the home side have the form edge.
Full data: Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace H2H on Statz.
Lineups and Player News
Palace bring Ismaila Sarr as their main threat – 0.89 SOT per game, 0.41 goals projected, and 1.67 fouls drawn per game. He is a constant handful for full-backs. Jean-Philippe Mateta adds 0.86 SOT and 0.35 goals projected from the centre-forward position.
Bournemouth have Evanilson at 0.86 SOT and 0.32 goals projected, with Eli Kroupi (0.85 SOT, 0.40 goals) also dangerous. Palace and Bournemouth are remarkably similar in their individual attacking projections, which explains why this market is so tight.
Recent Form
Bournemouth: DWDDDDDWWD – that is a lot of draws in there. The unbeaten run is impressive but they are not hammering sides – they grind, stay solid, and take points. Three wins and seven draws suggests the ceiling here is limited but the floor is solid.
Palace: DWLWLWDWDL – four wins, three draws, three losses. The defeat in the last game is a slight concern. They can win but they also drop points against sides they should beat, which is why 26.8% for a win here feels about right.
Statz Projections
Bournemouth project 1.91 goals, 4.95 SOT, 5.09 corners, 10.16 fouls and 1.77 yellow cards. Palace come in at 1.36 goals, 3.56 SOT, 3.79 corners and 1.86 yellow cards. BTTS at 63.3% is the standout market – both sides project to score and the individual player projections back it up. Over 2.5 goals at 63.5% is equally compelling.
Betting Angles
- BTTS – 63.3%: Both sides have players with goals in them and the model backs both sides to score. Bournemouth’s unbeaten run does not mean clean sheets – they draw a lot.
- Bournemouth win or draw (Double Chance) – 73.2%: Combine the win (48.9%) and draw (24.3%) and you get nearly three-quarters of outcomes having Bournemouth not losing. That unbeaten run in ten has legs.
- Ismaila Sarr fouls drawn: 1.67 fouls drawn per game average – Palace’s most dangerous and fouled player. Bournemouth’s defence will be tested by his pace.
- Over 2.5 goals – 63.5%: Combined goals projection of 3.27. Bournemouth’s draws this season have often been 1-1 or 2-2 rather than 0-0, so the goal markets look attractive.
Bet Builder
Four legs from the Statz SGP data on bet365:
- Adrien Truffert Tackles 2+ – 1.40: 100% hit rate, 5 from 5. Two or more tackles in every recent appearance – one of the most consistent legs in this preview.
- Jefferson Lerma Shots 1+ – 1.91: 80% hit rate, 4 from 5. Midfield presence who gets into shooting positions. Nice value at 1.91.
- Eli Kroupi Shots 2+ – 1.50: 80% hit rate, 4 from 5. High-volume attacker with two or more shots in four of his last five games.
- David Brooks Tackles 1+ – 1.40: 80% hit rate, 4 from 5. Consistently contributing defensively when called upon.
Combined at approximately 7.99 on bet365.
Summary
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace opens the Sunday Premier League action. Bournemouth are unbeaten in ten but have been drawing a lot – which actually makes BTTS (63.3%) and the double chance more interesting than an outright win. Ismaila Sarr is the player to watch for Palace – pace, goals, and he draws fouls. The Adrien Truffert tackles 2+ leg at 1.40 with a 100% hit rate is the anchor for any bet builder.