Villarreal vs Celta de Vigo Predictions & Betting Tips | La Liga

24th April 2026

Villarreal host Celta de Vigo on Sunday evening in La Liga, and on paper it looks a fairly routine home job. The Yellow Submarine are 3rd in the table on 62 points, nursing a push for Champions League football. Celta sit 6th on 44 – still very much alive in this second half of the season, but a long way behind their hosts today.

Villarreal’s last ten reads W5 D2 L3, with 14 scored and 13 conceded. Inconsistent at the back, but productive going forward. Celta have been spottier – W3 D2 L5 across their last ten, conceding 18 in the process. They can hurt you on the counter, but they leak goals and this looks like a tough trip.

Match Projections

Statz La Liga projections and the H2H page point clearly in one direction here. Villarreal are projected at 1.86 goals to Celta’s 0.96 – a gap that reflects the difference in quality between these two sides right now. Gerard Moreno leads the projected scorelines for the hosts at 0.55, while Borja Iglesias tops Celta’s expected contributions at 0.24.

The market has Villarreal winning this at 56.83% probability. Draw sits at 23.54%, Celta at 19.63%. Both teams to score lands at around 50%, and over 2.5 goals is priced at roughly 52%. Neither market screams value on its own, but the projections back a Villarreal-dominated game – and that’s where the bet builder interest lies.

Bet Builder – 4.71 on bet365

The Statz Bet Builder tool has flagged a four-leg combination at 4.71 on bet365. Here’s what’s in it and why each leg holds up.

Ayoze Pérez – 1+ Tackles (1.44)
The Villarreal attacker has been busy defensively. He’s hit 1+ tackles in all five of his last five appearances – a perfect 100% hit rate, averaging 1.2 tackles per game across that run. Not the flashiest leg, but it’s one of the most consistent pieces of data in this slip.

Marcos Alonso – 1+ Fouls (1.67)
The Celta defender has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games, averaging 1.4 per game. Celta’s own fouls leader over the last ten is Fer López at 1.20/game – so the foul volume is clearly there across the squad. Alonso’s 100% hit rate makes this a solid anchor leg.

Alberto Moleiro – 1+ Fouls (1.40)
Moleiro is one of the more direct attackers in the Villarreal squad and his tendency to draw contact – or make it – shows up in the data. Five from five for 1+ fouls, averaging 1.2 per game. Santiago Mouriño tops Villarreal’s foul count over the last ten at 2.00/game, so this is clearly a physical side. Moleiro fits the profile.

Ferran Jutglà – 2+ Shots (1.40)
Celta’s attacker has been one of the more active shot-takers in this dataset. He’s hit 2+ shots in four of his last five games – 80% hit rate – averaging 2.4 shots per appearance. His values across that run: 2, 5, 2, 0, 3. Volatile, but the average is comfortably over the threshold. Even against a decent Villarreal defence, Celta will need someone to carry the attacking threat, and Jutglà is that man.

Combined: 4.71 on bet365 – Build the bet here

The Angle

Villarreal are the class act here and the projections back them to dominate possession and shots. The match odds lean heavily their way – over 56% probability on a home win – and that’s hard to argue with given the 18-point gap in the standings.

The bet builder at 4.71 is the play. Three legs carry 100% hit rates over their last five, and Jutglà’s 80% record on 2+ shots provides the upside. All four legs are grounded in clear patterns from the Statz data – nothing speculative, nothing invented. That’s the kind of slip worth putting a small stake on.

For the full stats, lineups, and live projections, check the Villarreal vs Celta H2H page on Statz.