Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Predictions, Betting Tips & Bet Builder – Bundesliga 26 Apr

24th April 2026

Dortmund at home, pushing for the title, against a Freiburg side who’ve been inconsistent enough to make this look straightforward. It isn’t quite that simple – but the numbers lean pretty heavily one way.

Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd in the Bundesliga on 64 points (W19 D7 L4, +30 goal difference). Their last 10 reads WWDLWWWWLL – six wins, one draw, three losses, 20 scored and 12 conceded. That’s a team that scores freely but has had its wobbles. The model projects them at 2.14 goals here – the top projected scorer is Serhou Guirassy at 0.58.

SC Freiburg, in 7th on 43 points (W12 D7 L11, -4 GD), have been up and down. Their last 10: WLWLDLWLWW – five wins, one draw, four losses, 13 scored and 15 conceded. They’ve leaked more than they’ve kept out. The model has them at just 1.04 goals on the night, with Igor Matanovic as their likeliest scorer at 0.30.

So the projections point to a Dortmund win with goals at both ends just about hanging in the balance. Markets put the home win at 60.95%, with the draw at 22.21% and an away win at just 16.84%. Over 2.5 goals sits around 57%, and BTTS is roughly 50/50. Not a one-way street, but Dortmund are firmly the side to be on.

Referee Robin Braun has averaged 4.50 yellows and 21.25 fouls per game across eight Bundesliga matches this season. Expect it to be physical – particularly relevant for the bet builder angles below.

For the full projections breakdown, check Statz Bundesliga projections and the H2H page.

Bet Builder – 9.25/1 on bet365

Four legs, all hitting 100% in the last five. Built using Statz’s bet builder tool.

Lucas Höler – 1+ shots on target (2.10)
The Freiburg attacker has landed at least one shot on target in all five of his last five games – averaging 1.2 SOT per game in that run. Even against a strong Dortmund defence, he’s been consistent enough to back here.

Johan Manzambi – 2+ shots (2.00)
Another Freiburg man who’s been relentless on the stats sheet. Manzambi has hit 2+ shots in five out of five, averaging three per game in that run with a high of five. He’s generating volume.

Jobe Bellingham – 2+ tackles (1.53)
The Dortmund midfielder has been excellent in the press. He’s hit 2+ tackles in every one of his last five, averaging 3.4 per game in that spell – with a high of five. Tidy, reliable, and at odds that don’t fully reflect the hit rate.

Nico Schlotterbeck – 1+ fouls (1.44)
The Dortmund defender commits at least one foul pretty much every time he plays – five out of five in his last five, averaging 2.0 fouls per game. Given Braun’s foul-heavy matches, this one looks very solid.

Combined price: 9.25/1 on bet365

Add all four legs to your bet365 betslip here.

The Angle

Dortmund at home with the model projecting 2.14 goals and a 60.95% win probability isn’t something you ignore. Freiburg have too many defensive gaps to cause genuine problems over 90 minutes. The bet builder at 9.25/1 is the value play – four legs, all hitting 5/5 in recent form. That’s the one to focus on.

Odds correct at time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.