Arsenal vs Newcastle Predictions, Betting Tips and Bet Builder – Premier League 25 April 2026
24th April 2026
Arsenal need a win. With the title race still mathematically alive, a home slip-up against a Newcastle side sat in 14th is the kind of result that haunts a season. Saturday’s 4:30 kick-off at the Emirates has plenty riding on it – check the full H2H breakdown on Statz.
Match Context
Arsenal are 2nd in the Premier League on 70 points – W21 D7 L5, goal difference +37. Their last 10 tells a story of a side in good nick: WWDDWWWWLL, six wins, two draws, two losses, 21 scored and just 9 conceded. They’ve got momentum, they’re at home, and the model gives them a 67.84% chance of winning this.
Newcastle, on the other hand, are in a rough patch. 14th on 42 points, their last 10 reads LLWLLWWLLL – three wins, seven losses, 14 scored and 20 conceded. That is a team that is shipping goals and not finding many at the other end. The away win market is sitting at just 12.58% implied probability. Hard to argue with that.
Key Stats and Projections
Statz projects this one at Arsenal 2.41 – 0.96 Newcastle. That’s a comfortable home win projection and it lines up with the market. See the full Premier League projections here.
Viktor Gyökeres leads Arsenal’s projected goalscoring at 0.51 per game – he’s their top threat and has been all season. For Newcastle, Anthony Gordon is their best hope at 0.26 projected. The gap between those two numbers tells you a lot about the gap between these teams right now.
Referee Samuel Barrott takes charge – he averages 19.35 fouls, 3.70 yellows and 0.05 reds across 20 games this season. That’s a reasonable foul count and a decent yellow card rate, which factors into a couple of the bet builder legs below.
Over 2.5 goals sits at around 58% – makes sense with Arsenal’s attacking output and a Newcastle side that’s been leaky. BTTS is around 45%, which is fair given Newcastle do occasionally find a goal even when losing.
Betting Angles
Arsenal to win is the market consensus at 67.84% implied probability and it’s hard to look past it. They’re at home, in form, with a significant quality gap over a Newcastle side that has lost seven of their last ten.
Over 2.5 goals at around 58% is worth considering – Arsenal have scored 21 in their last 10 and project at 2.41 here. Even if Newcastle keep it tight for a spell, the home side’s attacking threat should do enough.
If you want to be bold: Arsenal to win and over 2.5 goals is a logical combination that reflects what the data actually says about this fixture.
Bet Builder – 4 Legs @ 7.24 (bet365)
Built using Statz Bet Builder, stats purist theme, all legs verified on Statz data.
- Jacob Ramsey – 1+ Shots (Newcastle) – 100% hit rate last 5 games. The Newcastle midfielder has registered at least one shot in every one of his last five appearances. Averaging 1.2 per game. @ 1.67
- Eberechi Eze – 1+ Tackles (Arsenal) – 100% hit rate last 5 games. Hit this in all five recent outings, averaging 1.2 tackles per game. Reliable floor for a midfielder asked to do a job defensively as well as going forward. @ 1.50
- Harvey Barnes – 1+ Fouls (Newcastle) – 100% hit rate last 5 games. Barnes is averaging 1.2 fouls per game over the sample – committed at least one in each of his last five. Joelinton leads Newcastle’s foul count overall at 1.40 per game, but Barnes is the pick here for consistency. @ 1.73
- Viktor Gyökeres – 1+ Shots on Target (Arsenal) – 80% hit rate last 5 games. Four from five, averaging 0.8 SOT per game. Arsenal’s top projected scorer at 0.51 per game – he’s going to get his chances at the Emirates. @ 1.67
Combined price: 7.24 on bet365 – Add all 4 legs to your bet365 betslip here.
Summary
This looks straightforward on paper – Arsenal at home, top two, against a Newcastle side who have won three of their last ten. The model projects it 2.41-0.96 and the market agrees. Gyökeres is the one to watch in attack, the over 2.5 has logic behind it, and the bet builder at 7.24 gives you four legs with strong recent form backing each of them.
Head to the Statz H2H page for lineups, referee stats and full projections before kick-off.