Spurs vs Brighton Predictions and Betting Tips – Saturday 18 April 2025

17th April 2026

Spurs are in freefall. One point from their last five Premier League games and a home crowd that’s running out of patience. Brighton roll into north London on the back of four wins from five, full of confidence and with the kind of pressing game that tends to expose rattled defences. This one has away win written all over it.

Check out the full Spurs vs Brighton head-to-head stats on Statz for projections, form, and more.

Lineups and Player News

Spurs are expected to line up in a 4-1-2-3 with Kinský in goal behind a back four of Udogie, Ven, Dragusin, and Porro. Gray sits as the holding midfielder with Gallagher and Bergvall ahead of him. Richarlison, Solanke, and Muani make up the front three.

Brighton go with a 4-2-3-1. Verbruggen starts in goal, Kadioglu, Boscagli, van Hecke, and Wieffer form the back four, with Gross and Ayari as the double pivot. Minteh, Hinshelwood, and Baleba support Welbeck up top.

Full team profiles: Tottenham Hotspur on Statz | Brighton on Statz

Recent Form

Spurs have lost four of their last five in the league. The one point they picked up came from a draw. They’re shipping goals, struggling to create, and the defensive shape has been all over the place. This is a team in crisis.

Brighton are the opposite story. Four wins from five, playing with tempo and purpose. They press high, they move the ball quickly, and they punish teams that sit off them. Spurs look like exactly the kind of side Brighton will enjoy facing right now.

Statz projects Brighton to edge this one – 1.50 expected goals to Spurs’ 1.29, with shots almost identical at 10.54 vs 10.08. That’s a tight match on paper but the form gap tells a different story. See all the Premier League stats and fixtures on Statz.

Player Stats to Know

The Statz Bet Builder has thrown up some strong angles for this one. Here’s what stands out:

Mats Wieffer – 1+ Shots (1.57): Hit in all five of his last five, with shot counts of 2, 2, 1, 1, 1. A box-to-box midfielder who gets forward regularly. This is as reliable as it gets.

Jan Paul van Hecke – 1+ Tackles (1.20): Five from five. Form reads 2, 1, 1, 1, 3. Brighton’s centre-back is constantly active defensively. Short price but worth including in a builder.

Destiny Udogie – 1+ Fouls (1.29): Five from five. Form: 1, 2, 2, 1, 1. Udogie is aggressive, gets into challenges, and picks up fouls consistently. A proper building block for accas.

Carlos Baleba – 1+ Fouls (1.20): Hit rate is perfect across his last five – 1, 1, 1, 1, 1. Baleba is physical in midfield and regularly puts himself about. At 1.20, it’s a near-certainty leg.

Check out all player projections at Statz Premier League player projections.

Betting Angles

Brighton to win is the obvious headline. Their form, their xG edge, and the fact they’re playing a side that can’t buy a win at home right now. The model backs them at 1.50 projected goals to 1.29 – not a huge gap, but combined with five wins in five games for the visitors, the value sits firmly with Brighton.

The referee is Stuart Attwell – averaging 21.2 fouls per game and 5 yellows. That’s a decent foul count and suggests there’ll be card opportunities. Udogie and Baleba both pick up fouls regularly, which fits the profile of this ref perfectly.

The combined bet builder at 2.91 using all four legs (Wieffer 1+ shots, van Hecke 1+ tackles, Udogie 1+ fouls, Baleba 1+ fouls) is the play here. Every leg has a 100% hit rate across the last five games. That’s as clean as it gets.

Summary

Brighton look the team to be on here. Spurs are in poor form, playing at home to a side that’s been excellent recently, and the Statz projections back the visitors. Stuart Attwell’s whistle-happy refereeing style adds fuel to the foul-based bet builder.

The four-leg builder at 2.91 is the headline pick – all legs are at 100% hit rate in the last five. Tidy.

Pick: Brighton to win + 4-leg bet builder at 2.91
Build it now: Statz Bet Builder Tool