West Ham vs Arsenal Predictions and Betting Tips – Sunday 10 May 2026

8th May 2026

West Ham are down in 18th and clinging on for dear life. Arsenal are top of the league and in the form of their lives. This is about as lopsided a Premier League fixture as you’ll find – but London derbies have a habit of doing strange things.

The Hammers go into Sunday’s late kick-off having picked up just one win in their last five at home. Arsenal meanwhile have won six of their last ten away from the Emirates, leaking only nine goals in the process. The title race might be the story, but relegation is the backdrop – and West Ham know a defeat here could seal their fate.

Lineups and Player News

Predicted lineups are sourced from the West Ham vs Arsenal H2H page on Statz. West Ham look set to line up with Taty Castellanos leading the line, with Pablo Fornals likely to feature in midfield. Arsenal are expected to name a strong XI with Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Viktor Gyokeres all projected to start.

Declan Rice returns to his former club – always a storyline worth noting in a game that needs no added spice.

Recent Form

West Ham’s last ten reads DDLWDLWDWL – three wins, four draws, three defeats. They’ve scored 11 and conceded 13. It’s a survival scrap, and their home record has been inconsistent at best.

Arsenal’s away form over the same period is DDWWWWLLWW – six wins from ten on the road, 18 goals scored, just nine conceded. That’s a team who know how to win ugly when they need to, and devastate you when they’re in the mood.

Interesting Player Stats

Bukayo Saka is Arsenal’s standout threat by projection. He’s expected to average 1.08 shots on target and 2.49 total shots here – numbers that put him right at the top of the tree among Premier League wingers this weekend. His projected fouls of 0.93 also make him a live card-draw candidate if West Ham decide to rough him up.

Viktor Gyokeres projects at 0.89 SOT and 1.98 shots per game. He’s been quietly outstanding since his move and averages more than a foul drawn per game (1.14) – he bullies defenders and that makes him dangerous in multiple bet builder markets.

For West Ham, Taty Castellanos is the one to watch. He projects at 0.67 SOT and 1.57 shots – modest numbers, but his hit rate data tells a different story (more on that below). Castellanos also draws 1.50 fouls per game, making him a consistent nuisance even when not at his best.

Gabriel Martinelli rounds things out with a 0.69 SOT projection and 1.93 total shots. He and Saka give Arsenal two wide threats who can both go at a struggling West Ham backline simultaneously.

Betting Angles

Referee Chris Kavanagh averages 22.15 fouls per game and 4.04 yellow cards – that’s a fairly card-heavy environment which suits foul and booking markets. With Declan Rice walking into his old stadium and Arsenal’s pressing intensity, this is a game that’ll get feisty.

The bet builder has four strong legs here, all with solid hit rate data from Statz:

Combined price: 7.41. Build this bet on Bet365.

Summary and Suggestions

Arsenal should win this. West Ham are in deep trouble and lack the firepower to trouble a well-organised Arsenal backline on a good day. But this is London, this is a relegation six-pointer for the home side, and Kavanagh is in the middle – so expect a physical, choppy game.

The bet builder is where the value lies. All four legs have at least 80% hit rates over the last five games, and the combined 7.41 is a fair price for the risk. Castellanos and Rice at 100% hit rate each provide the foundations – build from there.

Check the full West Ham vs Arsenal H2H stats and projections on Statz before you place.