Burnley vs Aston Villa Predictions and Betting Tips – Sunday 10 May 2026

8th May 2026

Burnley are in freefall. One win in their last ten, 22 goals conceded in that run, and they’re sitting 19th. This is as bad as it gets without being mathematically down. Aston Villa, in contrast, are 5th and pushing for European football – they’ve got enough quality to do a job here even if their away form has been inconsistent.

Sunday’s 2pm kick-off has the feel of a mismatch on paper. Whether Burnley can summon anything from somewhere to make it uncomfortable is the real question.

Lineups and Player News

Predicted lineups are from the Burnley vs Aston Villa H2H page on Statz. Burnley are expected to start with Zian Flemming as their chief creative threat, with a back line that has been leaking goals at an alarming rate. Aston Villa look set to name their strongest available side with Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers, Tammy Abraham and Ross Barkley all projected to feature.

Recent Form

Burnley’s last ten reads WDLLDLLLLL – one win, two draws, seven defeats. They’ve scored 10 and conceded 22. The defensive record is catastrophic and there’s no obvious fix in sight.

Villa’s away form over the same period is WDLLLWDWLL – three wins, two draws, five defeats. They’ve scored 12 and shipped 17 on the road. Not brilliant, but they have the firepower to hurt a team as open as Burnley.

Interesting Player Stats

Ollie Watkins leads Villa’s projection numbers here. He’s averaging 1.13 SOT and 2.42 total shots per game – among the highest shot volumes for any striker in this round of fixtures. He also draws 0.85 fouls per game, making him relevant across multiple markets.

Morgan Rogers is right on his heels at 0.99 SOT and 2.58 shots. His 1.19 fouls drawn per game is a standout figure – he’s the kind of player who gets fouled a lot, which means he’s generating danger and drawing defenders into rash challenges.

Ross Barkley projects at 0.98 SOT and 1.15 shots – a high SOT-to-shots ratio that suggests he’s clinical when he does get efforts away. At 0.72 fouls per game he’s also capable of contributing in the disciplinary markets.

For Burnley, Zian Flemming is their most dangerous outlet with 0.86 SOT and 2.19 shots projected. His 2.05 fouls per game is the highest in this fixture – he’s going to get involved whether Burnley are winning or losing.

Betting Angles

Referee Anthony Taylor averages 20.04 fouls per game and 4.21 yellow cards – slightly above average on both counts. With a relegation side at home and a Villa squad with plenty of experienced players who know how to put their foot in, this should be a lively contest from a disciplinary standpoint.

The bet builder from Statz:

Combined price: 7.69. Build this bet on Ladbrokes.

Summary and Suggestions

Villa should win this comfortably on paper. Burnley’s defensive record is wretched and their form has completely fallen apart. Villa have the attacking quality to rack up goals here even if their away form hasn’t been spectacular.

The bet builder is built on solid foundations – Watkins and Rogers both at 100% hit rate for fouls in their last five is the kind of data point you can build a multiple around. Barkley SOT and Mings shots add legs at strong odds to bring the combined price to 7.69.

Full stats and projections available on the Burnley vs Aston Villa H2H page on Statz.