Liverpool vs Crystal Palace Predictions, Betting Tips & Bet Builder – 25 April 2026

24th April 2026

Liverpool host Crystal Palace at Anfield on Saturday afternoon – a Premier League clash where the models see the home side as clear favourites but nothing close to a foregone conclusion. Here’s what the data says.

Form and Standings

Liverpool sit 5th in the table with 55 points – that’s W16 D7 L10 and a goal difference of +11. Decent, not dominant. Their last 10 reads WLWWWLDLWW – six wins, one draw, three defeats – and they’ve scored 19 and shipped 11 in that run. Some good, some very not good.

Crystal Palace are 13th on 43 points (W11 D10 L11, GD -1). Their last 10 is LDWLWLWDWD – a mixed bag that shows a side picking up points but not exactly pulling up trees. They’ve scored 12 and conceded 11 in that stretch – compact enough to be awkward.

Statz Projections

The Statz model projects Liverpool 1.69 – Palace 1.12. That’s a combined expected goals figure of around 2.81 – sitting just under the Over 2.5 threshold. Markets have both Over 2.5 and BTTS trading around 50%, which makes sense given the projections. Neither is a strong lean; this is genuine coin-flip territory on both counts.

The top projected scorer on each side? Mohamed Salah at 0.38 xG for Liverpool, and Ismaila Sarr at 0.35 for Palace. Two attackers worth watching – and both close enough in their expected output to tell you Palace aren’t just here to make up the numbers.

Check the full Premier League projections and the Liverpool vs Palace H2H on Statz.

Referee – Andrew Madley

Andrew Madley is in the middle. Across 18 Premier League games this season he’s averaging 23.06 fouls per game, 3.50 yellows, and 0.17 reds. That’s a moderately card-active official – not the most trigger-happy, but not one who lets things slide either. Worth flagging that Cody Gakpo leads Liverpool for fouls committed in the last 10 (14, averaging 1.40/game), while Jorgen Strand Larsen tops the chart for Palace (17, averaging 1.70/game). Both could end up on Madley’s radar.

Bet Builder – 6.20 on bet365

Here’s the Statz Bet Builder pick for this one – four legs, all backed by hit rate data from the last five games.

Mohamed Salah – 1+ Tackles (1.53)
100% hit rate in his last five. Averaged 1.8 tackles per game in that sample – nine tackles across five outings. Liverpool’s most influential attacker is also quietly putting in the defensive shifts. This one’s as consistent as it gets right now.

Andrew Robertson – 1+ Shots (1.53)
80% hit rate in his last five. The Scottish left-back has registered at least one shot in four of his last five appearances, averaging 1.0 shots per game. Palace leave space for overlapping full-backs, and Robertson will fancy his luck from distance if he gets the chance.

Jefferson Lerma – 1+ Shots (1.53)
80% hit rate in his last five. The Palace midfielder has averaged 1.4 shots per game in that run – seven total across five games. He popped up with three shots in one of those outings. A big physical presence who likes to arrive late into the box, Lerma can catch teams off guard at set pieces.

Brennan Johnson – 2+ Tackles (1.73)
80% hit rate in his last five. Johnson has averaged 1.6 tackles per game in that period, hitting two or more in four of his last five. The attacker’s work rate without the ball is a genuine asset for Palace – he tracks back and wins the ball. Anfield won’t quieten that down.

Combined price: 6.20 on bet365

Add all four legs to your bet365 betslip here.

The Angle

The market has Liverpool at 49% to win – just shy of even money. That tells you everything. This isn’t a comfortable Anfield walkover; it’s a game where Liverpool need to turn up and Palace need to do what they do – defend, stay compact, and nick something on the counter.

The projections point to a fairly tight game. Under 50% probability on both BTTS and Over 2.5 suggests goals might not flow freely. If you’re looking for a match result, Liverpool are the value side of a close market – but the bet builder at 6.20 is where the stat-backed interest lies for Saturday.

All data sourced from Statz.ai. Odds correct at time of writing via bet365. Please gamble responsibly – 18+.