Lazio vs Pisa Prediction: Serie A Match Preview and Betting Tips

22nd May 2026

Lazio host a Pisa side that has stopped fighting – and the Statz numbers say this should be a straightforward evening in Rome.

The Situation

Lazio sit 9th in Serie A on 51 points, a mid-table position that masks a reasonably decent second half of the season. Their last 10 games read W5 D2 L3, with 13 goals scored – the attack has been ticking along. The problem is the defence has conceded 12 in that same stretch, which is why they are where they are rather than pushing for Europe.

Pisa, on the other hand, are absolutely done. 20th in the table on 18 points, W1 D0 L9 across their last 10 games, conceding 25 goals in that run. There is nothing left in the tank, the relegation is confirmed, and players with heads already elsewhere. This is not a team arriving with fight.

Check the full head-to-head breakdown and you will see the gap in quality is stark.

Key Stats

Statz projections have Lazio at 1.70 expected goals to Pisa’s 0.82 – a comfortable home lead in the model. That makes sense when you look at the underlying data. Lazio have been generating chances; their team fouls average of 11 per game across the last 10 shows they are pressing and winning the ball. Pisa have been leaking 2.5 goals per game – a defence that has capitulated completely under the pressure of a relegation they could not avoid.

Referee Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi is in charge – only one game in our sample so take with caution, but that fixture saw 7 yellows and 28 fouls called.

Players to Watch

Tijjani Noslin leads Lazio’s projected goalscoring at 0.31 expected goals per game according to Statz models. The Dutch forward has averaged 1.17 shots and 0.67 shots on target in his recent run – a consistent threat in and around the box. With Pisa’s defensive line under pressure from a long season, he has the tools to cause damage.

Mattia Zaccagni is another who catches the eye in the data. He is averaging 1.47 shots and 0.49 shots on target per game, and his fouls drawn metric sits at 2.96 per game – almost impossible to handle cleanly. Expect him to draw free kicks and create in central areas.

For Pisa, Stefano Moreo is their top projected scorer at 0.18 goals per game. He has been getting shots away – 1.39 per game – but with the service drying up as the season collapses, it would take something special for him to affect the scoreline.

Betting Angles

Lazio to Win – The model has this 1.70-0.82 and Pisa have lost 9 of their last 10. Lazio at home to a relegated side with nothing to play for is about as clear a home-win scenario as Serie A offers at this point of the season. The value is in the conviction, not the price.

Over 2.5 Goals – Pisa have conceded 25 in their last 10 and Lazio have scored 13. Two teams pointing in completely opposite directions. The projected combined goals of 2.52 sits right on the line, but the recent evidence tips it over.

Noslin 1+ Shots on Target – At a projected 0.67 shots on target per game with a porous Pisa defence, this has quiet value in the player props market.

Verdict

Lazio win. The model says 1.70-0.82 and the form backs it up. Pisa have lost 9 of 10 and conceded 25 times – this is a dead rubber for the visitors and Lazio should have too much. Back the home side and look at goals markets given both teams’ recent form at both ends.