World Cup 2026 Favourites – Who the Data Says Will Win in USA, Mexico and Canada

29th May 2026

The World Cup is back – and it’s bigger than ever. Forty-eight teams, three host nations, and a tournament that stretches from June 11 to July 19 across the USA, Mexico and Canada. More games, more chaos, more opportunities to find value.

But who actually wins it? Vibes and punditry are one thing. Data is another. We’ve run the numbers through our projections model, compared them against the bookmakers, and found where the smart money should be looking. Here’s what the data says about World Cup 2026.

The Favourites

Spain – 16.84% to Win the World Cup

No surprise at the top. Spain are the reigning European champions and the model’s clear number one, giving them a 16.84% chance of lifting the trophy and a 26.6% probability of reaching the final. Their group stage numbers are borderline obscene – 98.8% to qualify from Group H, 76.9% to win it.

The underlying stats back it up completely. Spain lead the way on shots on target per game (7.63) over the last 24 months and are averaging 3.00 goals per game – second only to Norway across all qualified nations. A 77.8% win rate across that period tells you this isn’t a team coasting on reputation. They’re genuinely dominant right now.

At 5.5 with bet365, the model sees a slight negative edge (-1.34%), which basically means they’re priced about right. You’re not getting robbed backing them, but there’s no screaming value either.

France – 12.36% to Win the World Cup

France at 12.36% feels about right for a squad with that much raw talent – even if the recent tournament returns haven’t quite matched the billing. The model gives them a 20.1% chance of making the final and 96.9% to qualify from Group I, where they’re 64.5% favourites to top it.

The issue? At 6.0 with bet365, the model actually sees a -4.31% edge against the punter. The bookmakers have been generous with France’s price relative to what our numbers say they should be. In plain English – you’re overpaying slightly for the privilege of backing Les Bleus.

England – 10.13% to Win the World Cup

Here we go again. England come into another major tournament with plenty of talent and a fanbase that oscillates between “it’s coming home” and total despair. The model gives them a 10.13% chance of winning the whole thing – third favourites – with a 17.6% probability of reaching the final.

Group L should be straightforward – 97.4% to qualify, 67.2% to win the group. That’s about as comfortable as it gets before the knockout rounds, where England’s tournament pedigree (or lack of it) tends to kick in.

At 7.0 with bet365, the edge is -2.37%. Midnite have them at 8.0, which narrows the gap but still doesn’t represent value according to the model. England backers are paying a nostalgia tax, as usual.

Argentina – 8.87% to Win the World Cup

The defending champions. Argentina sit fourth in the model at 8.87%, with a 15.6% chance of making the final. That might feel low for a side that won it in Qatar, but the model doesn’t do sentiment – it reads form, and while a 76% win rate and 64% clean sheet rate over 24 months is excellent, the gap to Spain and France is real.

Group J gives them a 96.3% qualification probability and 65.4% to win it. Solid, not spectacular. At 9.0 with bet365, the edge is -1.13% – nearly fair. If you fancy a repeat, you’re not getting mugged on the price.

The Contenders

Germany – 8.34% to Win the World Cup

Now we’re talking value. Germany at 15.0 with bet365 is the standout among the bigger nations. The model has them at 8.34% to win the tournament – a +1.67% edge over the implied odds. They’re also given a 15.6% chance of reaching the final, level with Argentina.

The stats support it too. Germany are averaging 2.52 goals per game and 6.32 shots on target per game over the last two years – both top-six numbers. Group E should be comfortable at 96.7% to qualify and 61.7% to win it.

At that price, Germany represent genuine value. The bookmakers seem to be pricing in recent tournament disappointments rather than current form. That’s where edges live.

Brazil – 6.68% to Win the World Cup

Brazil are a strange one. Still priced at 9.0 with bet365 – the same as Argentina – despite the model giving them just 6.68%. That’s a -4.43% edge against you. The bookmakers are banking on the name, and punters are probably doing the same.

Group C should be fine – 96.6% to qualify, 61.3% to win it – and a 12.7% chance of reaching the final isn’t nothing. But there are better places to put your money at this price point.

Portugal – 4.94% to Win the World Cup

Portugal come in at 4.94% in the model with an 11.0 price at bet365. That’s a -3.39% edge – the bookies have them shorter than the data suggests they should be. They’re averaging 6.15 shots on target per game, which is promising, but the overall win probability doesn’t justify the price.

The Dark Horses

Colombia – 4.29% to Win the World Cup

Colombia are the dark horse pick that actually has numbers behind it. At 34.0 with bet365 (and a massive 41.0 with Coral), the model sees a +1.85% edge on the outright. That’s significant at those odds.

But the real play is Colombia to win Group K at 3.75 with bet365 – the model has them at 37.2% versus a 26.7% implied probability, a +10.6% edge. They’re in a group with Portugal and Uzbekistan, and while Portugal get the headlines, Colombia’s recent form suggests they can genuinely compete for top spot.

Morocco

Morocco were the story of Qatar 2022 and the data says they’ve only got better since. An 89.3% win rate over 24 months – the highest of any qualified nation. A 75% clean sheet rate. They’re averaging 2.84 goals per game. These numbers are absurd.

Morocco to win Group C at 6.5 with Midnite is one of the best bets on the board – the model has them at 26.3% versus a 15.4% implied probability. That’s a +10.9% edge. Filed under “the bookmakers haven’t caught up yet.”

Belgium

Belgium at 34.0 with bet365 and a 3.38% model probability is close to fair (+0.44% edge). They’re averaging 6.54 shots on target per game – second only to Spain – which suggests they’re still creating plenty. Whether they can convert that into a deep run at a World Cup is the question that’s followed this golden generation for a decade.

Where’s the Value?

Right, here’s the bit that matters. Forget the outright winner market for a second – the biggest edges in our model sit in the group stages, where bookmakers tend to be lazier with their pricing.

Canada to win Group B – 3.5 (Midnite) | +13.5% edge
The hosts. The model gives Canada a 42.1% chance of topping Group B versus a 28.6% implied probability. Home advantage in a tournament like this is massive, and the bookmakers haven’t fully priced it in. This is the single biggest edge in our model.

Uzbekistan to qualify from Group K – 2.8 (Coral) | +13.2% edge
The model has Uzbekistan at 49% to qualify from a group containing Portugal and Colombia. A 68.4% clean sheet rate over 24 months suggests they’re incredibly hard to break down. At 2.8, this is a serious value play.

Morocco to win Group C – 6.5 (Midnite) | +10.9% edge
Already covered above, but it’s worth repeating. Morocco’s form numbers are the best of any team outside the traditional elite, and 6.5 to win a group containing Brazil is a big price.

Colombia to win Group K – 3.75 (bet365) | +10.6% edge
Colombia over Portugal at that price is hard to ignore when the model has them at 37.2%. The gap in perceived quality between these two sides is bigger than the actual gap in current form.

Germany to win the World Cup – 15.0 (bet365) | +1.67% edge
The only outright value pick among the top tier. At 15.0, you’re getting a team with a 15.6% chance of making the final at a price that implies they’re a long shot. They’re not.

The Verdict

Spain are the team to beat – the model is clear on that. France and England are genuine contenders but neither represents value at current prices. Argentina are nearly fair. The smart money? It’s on Germany at 15.0 for the outright, and in the group markets where Canada, Morocco, Colombia and Uzbekistan are all significantly underpriced.

The World Cup is always unpredictable – 48 teams and a new format guarantee chaos. But if you’re going to bet into that chaos, at least make sure the numbers are on your side. Check the full World Cup projections on Statz and find your own edges before the odds tighten.