WI vs SL Preview – T20I Series 2026 | Statz

13th June 2026

West Indies welcome Sri Lanka to Sabina Park, Kingston for the 3rd T20I on Sunday, with the hosts already 1-0 up in the three-match series. The Windies sit 7th in the ICC T20I rankings (rating 233) while Sri Lanka are 9th (rating 221). First ball is at 06:00 IST (01:30 BST).

After a convincing 7-wicket win in the 1st T20I, West Indies will be looking to seal the series at their Caribbean fortress. Sri Lanka desperately need a response after five consecutive T20I defeats stretching back to February.

The Venue – Sabina Park, Kingston

Sabina Park has hosted 9 T20I matches with an average first-innings score of 176.4 and an average match total of 345.5. The ground favours pace bowling – seamers account for 61.6% of wickets at an economy of 9.14, while spinners take 34.8% at a more frugal 8.10. Openers have been the top scorers in 7 of those 9 matches, suggesting there is value early in the innings.

The most recent match here was the 1st T20I in this series on 12 June, where Sri Lanka posted 147/9 batting first before West Indies chased it down losing just 3 wickets. Chasing sides have won the last three T20Is at Sabina Park. West Indies’ home record at this ground is 5 wins from 9 T20Is.

Form and Table

West Indies (ICC T20I ranking: 7th) have won 3 of their last 5 T20Is. Their season record in 2026 stands at P7 W3 L4.

Last 5 results:

Sri Lanka (ICC T20I ranking: 9th) are on a torrid run of 5 consecutive T20I defeats in 2026. Their season record reads P7 W1 L5 – a win percentage of just 14.3%.

Last 5 results:

Head-to-Head

9 meetings since 2020 (Statz data). West Indies lead 6-3. The Windies have won the last meeting – a 7-wicket victory in the 1st T20I at this very ground on 12 June – chasing down 148 with 4 balls to spare. Sri Lanka’s last series win over the Windies came in October 2024 in Dambulla, where they took the series 2-1.

At Sabina Park specifically, West Indies have played 1 T20I against Sri Lanka (the 1st T20I this series) and won comfortably.

Statz Projections

Statz projections give West Indies a 51.4% win probability in the batting-first scenario, rising to 53.2% if they bowl first. Model confidence sits at 0.97.

The projected first-innings total is 181.9 (WI batting first) – slightly above the Sabina Park ground average of 176.4. The projected match total of 352 also edges above the venue average of 345.5. The P10-P90 range for the first innings runs from 155 to 209, and the match total from 306 to 397 – suggesting a high-scoring affair is the most likely outcome.

Season Leaders

This is a bilateral series rather than a league competition, so there are no Orange or Purple Cap races. Here are the key season performers for each side in T20Is this year:

West Indies Season Leaders

Sri Lanka Season Leaders

Predicted XIs

Both XIs are based on the 1st T20I on 12 June vs each other at Sabina Park. Always check the fixture page for confirmed lineups after the toss.

West Indies Predicted XI: Brandon King, Shai Hope (c/wk), Shimron Hetmyer, Roston Chase, Sherfane Rutherford, Rovman Powell, Romario Shepherd, Jason Holder, Matthew Forde, Akeal Hosein, Shamar Joseph

Sri Lanka Predicted XI: Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis (c/wk), Lasith Croospulle, Pavan Rathnayake, Kamindu Mendis, Dasun Shanaka, Wanindu Hasaranga, Maheesh Theekshana, Dushmantha Chameera, Eshan Malinga, Dilshan Madushanka

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Captain: Jason Holder – 114.6 projected Dream11 points. The veteran all-rounder was devastating in the 1st T20I with 3/18 and is projected for 17.6 runs and 1.66 wickets in this match. His ability to contribute with both bat and ball makes him the standout pick.

Vice Captain: Shamar Joseph – 90.9 projected Dream11 points. Took 3/29 in the 1st T20I and is projected for 1.12 wickets and 15.7 runs with the bat lower down. The raw pace merchant has been in excellent form.

Also consider:

Key Players

Jason Holder – The experienced all-rounder was Player of the Match in the 1st T20I with figures of 3/18. Holder is projected for 1.66 wickets and 17.6 runs in this match. His death bowling at Sabina Park has been a consistent weapon for the Windies, and he is the highest-projected Dream11 scorer at 114.6 points.

Shai Hope – The captain scored an unbeaten 65 off 54 balls anchoring the chase in the 1st T20I. Hope has 117 runs in 3 T20I innings this season at an average of 39.00. He is projected for 36.5 runs and is the linchpin of the West Indies top order.

Wanindu Hasaranga – Sri Lanka’s premier spinner leads their wicket-taking charts with 7 wickets in 5 T20I innings this season. He went for 2/22 in the 1st T20I and is projected for 1.35 wickets here. With spin economy at Sabina Park averaging 8.10, conditions could suit his leg-breaks.

Shimron Hetmyer – The left-hander leads the West Indies run charts in 2026 with 250 runs at an average of 35.71, including scores of 75 and 48 in his last three knocks. Projected for 26.8 runs, Hetmyer’s ability to accelerate through the middle overs makes him a key threat.

Conditions

Partly cloudy in Kingston with a temperature of 28 degrees, humidity at 82% and no rain expected. Wind at 5.9 km/h from the south-east. Full match under lights.

Verdict and Betting Angles

West Indies should seal the series here. They have home advantage at a ground where they have won 5 of 9 T20Is, momentum from the 1st T20I victory, and significantly better form – 3 wins in their last 5 compared to Sri Lanka’s 5 straight defeats. The Statz model gives the Windies a 51-53% win probability regardless of the toss outcome, and the gap feels wider given Sri Lanka’s woeful 14.3% win rate in T20Is this year. Odds are not yet available for this match – check closer to start time.

Betting angles via the Statz Bet Builder: