Welsh Fire vs Southern Brave Prediction, Projections & Preview

1st August 2026

Welsh Fire host Southern Brave at Sophia Gardens on Monday, 3 August for The Hundred’s 19th match. First ball is at 17:30 BST.

Welsh Fire sit second in the table on 12 points from four matches (W3 L1), riding a two-match winning streak after a heavy defeat to Trent Rockets on 29 July. Southern Brave are languishing in seventh on just 4 points (W1 L3), having won only one of their opening four games. This is a crucial fixture for both sides – Fire need to maintain momentum in their push for the top four, while Brave are already under pressure to salvage their tournament. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Welsh Fire vs Southern Brave fixture page on Statz.

The Venue and Toss

Sophia Gardens is a bowler-friendly ground that has produced low-scoring cricket in The Hundred. Across the last 10 T20 matches here, the average match total is 246.6 with an average first-innings score of just 123.5. The boundary percentage of 54.7% is well below the T20 norm, indicating a ground where strokeplay is punished and patience rewarded.

Seam bowlers have dominated at this venue, taking 72.4% of wickets at an economy of 9.25, while spinners have been more expensive at 11.33 but account for only 23.6% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as Bowler Friendly by Statz. Welsh Fire’s home record at Sophia Gardens since 2021 reads W4 L14 – a stark reminder that home advantage counts for little on this ground. Southern Brave have won all four of their away matches at this venue since 2021, though the sample is small.

With the ground favouring seam bowling and lower totals, the toss is unlikely to be decisive. Expect the side batting first to target 130-140 and rely on their bowlers to defend it.

Form and Table

Welsh Fire – 2nd (P4 W3 L1, 12 pts)

Fire have made a strong start to their Hundred campaign. Three wins from four matches puts them in genuine contention, though their net run rate of -0.267 suggests they are winning tight contests rather than dominating.

Southern Brave – 7th (P4 W1 L3, 4 pts)

Brave are in serious trouble. One win from four matches leaves them bottom of the table and facing an uphill battle to qualify. Their only victory came against Birmingham Phoenix on 30 July, but losses to London Spirit, MI London and Welsh Fire have left them with work to do.

Standings Snapshot

Pos Team P W L Pts
1 Trent Rockets 4 3 1 12
2 Welsh Fire 4 3 1 12
3 Manchester Super Giants 4 2 2 8
4 MI London 4 2 2 8
5 Sunrisers Leeds 3 2 1 8
6 London Spirit 3 1 2 4
7 Southern Brave 4 1 3 4
8 Birmingham Phoenix 4 1 3 4

Welsh Fire have six matches remaining and are well-placed to qualify. Southern Brave, by contrast, are in a must-win situation. Every match from here on is a knockout for them.

Head-to-Head

Welsh Fire hold a commanding 8-2 record over Southern Brave across 11 meetings, with one no-result. The most recent clash came just 10 days ago on 22 July at Sophia Gardens, where Fire won by 3 runs – Fire 138/4, Brave 135/7. That victory came after Brave had beaten Fire by 4 runs in August 2025, suggesting this is a competitive fixture despite the overall H2H lean.

At this ground specifically, the dynamics are different. Southern Brave are unbeaten in four away matches at Sophia Gardens since 2021, though Welsh Fire’s home record here is poor at W4 L14. The tighter recent form suggests Brave cannot be written off despite their league position.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections rate this as a genuine coin-flip.

If Welsh Fire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 133.3, match total of 257.3. Win probability – WF 45.9%, SB 47.6%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 112 to 155.

If Southern Brave bat first: Projected first-innings total of 132.9, match total of 257.2. Win probability – WF 45.7%, SB 47.8%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 111 to 155.

Both projected match totals sit well above the Sophia Gardens average of 246.6, suggesting the model expects a slightly higher-scoring game than the venue’s recent trend. The projected first-innings totals of around 133 are also above the venue average of 123.5. Match total P10-P90 range: 213 to 295.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap – Top 5 Run-Scorers

Player Team Runs Inn
Jos Buttler Manchester Super Giants 224 4
Ben Duckett Trent Rockets 175 4
Mitchell Marsh Sunrisers Leeds 173 3
Finn Allen Trent Rockets 148 4
Rachin Ravindra Welsh Fire 145 4

Purple Cap – Top 5 Wicket-Takers

Player Team Wkts Inn
Richard Gleeson MI London 8 4
Sonny Baker Manchester Super Giants 7 4
Marcus Stoinis Southern Brave 6 3
Lockie Ferguson Welsh Fire 6 4
Craig Overton Trent Rockets 5 4

Welsh Fire Season Leaders

Runs: Rachin Ravindra – 145 runs, avg 36.25, HS 98 | Joe Root – 107 runs, avg 26.75, HS 58 | Philip Salt – 104 runs, avg 26.0, HS 47

Wickets: Lockie Ferguson – 6 wkts, best 4 | Marco Jansen – 4 wkts, best 2 | Rachin Ravindra – 3 wkts, best 1

Southern Brave Season Leaders

Runs: Tristan Stubbs – 90 runs, avg 22.5, HS 43 | Jamie Smith – 88 runs, avg 22.0, HS 49 | David Miller – 85 runs, avg 21.25, HS 44

Wickets: Marcus Stoinis – 6 wkts, best 3 | Adil Rashid – 5 wkts, best 3 | Luke Wood – 3 wkts, best 3

Predicted XIs

Welsh Fire (based on XI vs Birmingham Phoenix, 1 Aug 2026)

  1. Philip Salt (c, wk)
  2. Tom Kohler-Cadmore
  3. Joe Root
  4. Rachin Ravindra
  5. Jordan Cox
  6. Asa Tribe
  7. Ben Kellaway
  8. Marco Jansen
  9. Chris Woakes
  10. Lockie Ferguson
  11. Samuel Cook

Southern Brave (based on XI vs Birmingham Phoenix, 30 Jul 2026)

  1. Jamie Smith (wk)
  2. Ben McKinney
  3. Marcus Stoinis
  4. David Miller
  5. Tristan Stubbs
  6. Tom Abell
  7. Chris Jordan (c)
  8. Saif Zaib
  9. Adil Rashid
  10. Luke Wood
  11. Jofra Archer

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:

Captain: Rachin Ravindra (WF) – projected 64.6 pts. The New Zealand all-rounder has been Welsh Fire’s standout performer with 145 runs at 36.25 and a high score of 98. His projected runs of 31.1 at a strike rate of 188.3 combined with nearly 0.6 wickets per game make him the safest captain pick.

Vice Captain: Marcus Stoinis (SB) – projected 60.8 pts. The Australian all-rounder is Southern Brave’s most dangerous player, with 70 runs at 23.33 and 6 wickets in just 3 matches. His projected 14.3 runs combined with 1.29 wickets per game and an economy of 9.26 makes him a dual threat.

Also consider:

Key Players

Rachin Ravindra (Welsh Fire)

The standout performer in this Welsh Fire side. Ravindra has 145 runs at an average of 36.25 with a high score of 98, putting him fifth in the competition’s Orange Cap race. His last three scores of 98, 16 and 7 show a player capable of explosive innings. The Statz bet builder shows Ravindra has hit 20+ runs in 50% of his matches this season – a solid strike rate for a middle-order batter in The Hundred.

Marcus Stoinis (Southern Brave)

Southern Brave’s most important player and their only genuine all-rounder. Stoinis has 70 runs at 23.33 and 6 wickets in just 3 matches – a 100% hit rate for taking at least one wicket. His bowling economy of 8.91 is excellent for The Hundred, and his batting strike rate of 139.1 shows he can accelerate when needed. In a side struggling for form, Stoinis is the one player capable of turning a match single-handedly.

Lockie Ferguson (Welsh Fire)

Welsh Fire’s strike bowler with 6 wickets in 4 matches. Ferguson has taken 2+ wickets in 50% of his matches this season and has a best return of 4 wickets. His economy of 8.54 is tight for The Hundred, and he has a 50% hit rate for taking a wicket in this fixture. On a bowler-friendly ground like Sophia Gardens, Ferguson could be the difference-maker.

Joe Root (Welsh Fire)

The England legend has 107 runs at 26.75 in four matches, with a high score of 58. Root has hit 20+ runs in 50% of his matches and 30+ runs in 25% – a steady, reliable presence in the Welsh Fire middle order. His experience in tight matches could prove crucial.

Conditions

Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Cardiff with temperatures around 19 degrees Celsius. Humidity is moderate at 58%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 8.2 km/h from the south-west – conditions that should suit seam bowling slightly more than spin.

Verdict and Betting Angles

This is a coin-flip contest on paper, but the context tells a different story. Welsh Fire are in form and pushing for the top four, while Southern Brave are fighting for survival. The Statz projections give Southern Brave a marginal edge at 47.7% to 45.8%, but that reflects the quality of their squad rather than their current momentum.

The bookmakers have Welsh Fire as slight favourites, with indicative odds of around 1.85 for Fire and 1.95 for Brave. That pricing seems to underestimate Brave’s quality, but it also reflects the reality that Fire are the in-form side.

I am leaning Welsh Fire here. They have won three of their last four matches, they know Sophia Gardens well despite their poor home record, and they have the momentum. Ravindra is in exceptional form, and Ferguson’s bowling has been tight. Southern Brave need to win, but desperation can lead to poor decision-making in The Hundred.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture:

Who will win Welsh Fire vs Southern Brave?

Southern Brave are slight favourites at 47.7% win probability according to Statz projections, but Welsh Fire’s current form and home advantage make them the pick. This is a genuine coin-flip that could go either way.

Welsh Fire’s three wins from four matches, combined with Rachin Ravindra’s exceptional form and Lockie Ferguson’s tight bowling, give them the edge despite Brave’s superior squad quality. Southern Brave have the players to win – Marcus Stoinis, Chris Jordan and Adil Rashid are all capable of match-winning performances – but their league position reflects a team struggling to find consistency.

Welsh Fire vs Southern Brave prediction FAQ

Q: Who will win Welsh Fire vs Southern Brave?

A: Southern Brave are given a 47.7% win probability by Statz projections, but Welsh Fire are the pick based on current form and home advantage. This is a tight contest with nothing to separate the sides on paper.

Q: What is the projected match total?

A: The Statz projections suggest a match total of around 257, with first-innings scores of approximately 133. This is slightly above Sophia Gardens’ recent average of 246.6, indicating a moderately high-scoring game for this venue.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?

A: The toss is unlikely to be decisive at Sophia Gardens. Both sides have similar win probabilities whether batting first or second, so the toss winner should simply assess conditions and back their strengths.

Q: Is Welsh Fire a good bet?

A: Welsh Fire are in form with three wins from four matches, and their odds of around 1.85 offer value. However, Southern Brave’s squad quality and Brave’s desperation to win make this far from settled. Neither side is a strong value bet at current odds.