Warwickshire vs Worcestershire Preview – Blast 2026 | Statz

26th June 2026

Warwickshire vs Worcestershire is a West Midlands derby in the T20 Blast 2026 at Edgbaston, Birmingham on Thursday evening. Warwickshire are rock bottom (17th, 4 pts, W1 L5) while Worcestershire sit 10th on 12 points (W3 L3). First ball is at 23:30 IST (19:00 BST).

The Venue

Edgbaston has produced an average first-innings total of 174 across 30 T20s since July 2023. The bat-first win rate sits at 47%, making the toss relatively neutral. This is a ground where spinners have a bigger say than most – taking 32.1% of wickets at an economy of 8.35, while pace bowlers pick up 62.1% at 8.81. The most recent T20 here saw Northamptonshire chase down 209 inside 20 overs on 31 May 2026. The Statz pitch tag reads: Balanced pitch.

Form and Table

Warwickshire snapped a five-match losing streak with a dramatic one-wicket win at Somerset, chasing 215 with four balls to spare. They still average 161.2 runs per innings this season, but that Somerset chase showed what the lineup can do when it fires. Their last five results:

Worcestershire have lost two on the bounce after winning three of their first four. Their bowling has been the stronger suit, but back-to-back defeats to Northamptonshire and Gloucestershire have stalled their momentum. Their last five results:

Table (Top 4):

Pos Team P W L Pts
1 Northamptonshire 6 6 0 24
2 Gloucestershire 6 5 1 20
3 Hampshire 6 5 1 20
4 Yorkshire 6 4 2 16

Warwickshire (17th, 4 pts) are in real trouble and need to string together wins quickly with eight group matches remaining. Worcestershire (10th, 12 pts) still have an outside chance at qualification but cannot afford more defeats.

Head-to-Head

These local rivals have met 9 times since June 2022 (Statz data) with Warwickshire winning 6 to Worcestershire’s 3. However, the most recent meeting on 29 May 2026 was a Worcestershire victory – they chased down 142 with 9 balls to spare while bowling Warwickshire out. Warwickshire’s record at Edgbaston is solid with 18 wins from 33 T20s, while Worcestershire have won just 1 of 4 visits here.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections favour Warwickshire despite their table position. If Warwickshire bat first, the model projects a first innings of 201.5 (P10: 171, P90: 233) with a match total of 384.3 and a 53.5% win probability. If Worcestershire bat first, Warwickshire’s advantage grows to 58.2% with a projected first innings of 193.3 (P10: 154, P90: 229). Both projected match totals are well above the venue average of 328.3 – expect runs.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap (Top Run Scorers):

  1. Beau Webster (WAR) – 288 runs (6 inn)
  2. George Munsey – 251 runs (6 inn)
  3. Jonny Bairstow – 250 runs (6 inn)
  4. Chris Lynn – 245 runs (6 inn)
  5. Martin Andersson – 237 runs (6 inn)

Purple Cap (Top Wicket Takers):

  1. Duan Jansen – 16 wkts (6 inn)
  2. James Sales – 16 wkts (6 inn)
  3. Adam Finch (WOR) – 12 wkts (6 inn)
  4. Scott Currie – 12 wkts (6 inn)
  5. Mohammad Ali – 12 wkts (6 inn)

Warwickshire Season Leaders:

Worcestershire Season Leaders:

Predicted XIs

Warwickshire (based on XI from 07 Jun 2026 vs Somerset):

Robert Yates, Zen Malik, Dan Mousley, Beau Webster, Ed Barnard (c), Kai Smith, Alex Davies (wk), Jordan Thompson, Chris Woakes, Richard Gleeson, Usman Tariq

Worcestershire (based on XI from 09 Jun 2026 vs Northamptonshire):

Kashif Ali, Brett D’Oliveira (c), Gareth Roderick (wk), Adam Hose, Sikandar Raza, Ethan Brookes, Henry Cullen, Usama Mir, Tom Taylor, Ben Allison, Adam Finch

Note: Always check the Statz fixture page for any toss-time changes to the playing XI.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Captain: Tom Taylor – Projected 89.9 Dream11 points. Worcestershire’s seam-bowling all-rounder is projected for 1.53 wickets and handy lower-order runs of 9.1. His 1+ wicket hit rate sits at a solid 80%.

Vice Captain: Jordan Thompson – Projected 88.5 Dream11 points. Warwickshire’s all-rounder contributes with both bat (14.5 projected runs) and ball (1.31 projected wickets), making him a versatile pick.

Also consider:

Key Players

Beau Webster (WAR) – The Orange Cap holder with 288 runs at an extraordinary average of 48.0, including a century (HS 112). His 20+ runs hit rate is 66.7% for the season and 80% in the last 5. The Australian all-rounder is the single biggest threat in this fixture and could be the difference between the sides. Build your bet here.

Adam Finch (WOR) – Joint-third on the Purple Cap with 12 wickets. A remarkable 100% hit rate for 1+ wickets and 83.3% for 2+ wickets this season. Projected for 1.48 wickets – the most reliable bowling option in the match.

Sikandar Raza (WOR) – Worcestershire’s leading run-scorer with 161 runs at 26.83 and a 20+ runs hit rate of 66.7%. The Zimbabwe international also chips in with useful off-spin (0.81 projected wickets), making him a genuine all-round threat at Edgbaston.

Chris Woakes (WAR) – The England all-rounder is projected for 1.00 wicket and 7.2 runs. His experience and ability to control the run rate in the middle overs is crucial for Warwickshire’s chances, particularly on a spin-friendly Edgbaston surface.

Conditions

Partly cloudy in Birmingham at 28 degrees with 62% cloud cover but no rain forecast. Humidity is low at 35% – good batting conditions with a touch of assistance for the seamers under the clouds.

Verdict and Betting Angles

Do not be fooled by the table positions. Warwickshire are bottom of the standings but the Statz model gives them a 56% win probability, and the bookmakers agree at 1.68. Beau Webster (Orange Cap holder, 288 runs) is a match-winner on his own, and Warwickshire’s batting depth with Dan Mousley, Robert Yates and Jordan Thompson gives them firepower that their record does not reflect. Worcestershire have lost two straight and their batting averages are modest. Warwickshire’s 6-3 head-to-head advantage and strong Edgbaston record (18 wins from 33) further support the home side. Warwickshire to win at 1.68 (bet365) looks solid.

Bet Builder Angles:

Build your bet for Warwickshire vs Worcestershire on Statz.