WAR vs SOM Preview – T20 Blast 2026

23rd May 2026

Warwickshire host Somerset under lights at Edgbaston on Saturday evening in a T20 Blast clash between two sides heading in opposite directions. The Bears slumped to defeat in their opener and sit rock bottom, while Somerset arrive off the back of a convincing win – at this very ground. Start time is 20:00 IST (15:30 BST).

Venue – Edgbaston, Birmingham

Edgbaston has been a belter in T20 cricket. The average first innings score here sits at 171.6, comfortably above the T20 par of 155-165, and teams batting first have won exactly half their games. It is a balanced pitch according to Statz Cricket data, but the numbers lean towards run-scoring – pace bowlers go at 8.83 an over and spin at 8.04. The most recent T20 here? Somerset smashing 195/4 to chase down Hampshire’s 194/6 back in September. Expect runs again under clear skies and 27C heat with just 21% humidity.

Form and Head-to-Head

Warwickshire are winless after matchday one and languishing in 16th place with zero points. Somerset, by contrast, sit 4th with a win from their only outing and 4 points already banked. The head-to-head record is thin in recent data – just one meeting logged – but Edgbaston form is telling. The Bears boast 18 wins against 13 losses at home since 2021, which is decent. Somerset, though, have won 5 of 7 at Edgbaston in the same period – a 71% win rate on the road that demands respect.

Statz Projections

Statz Cricket projections favour Somerset regardless of the toss. If Warwickshire bat first, Somerset’s win probability sits at 54.1% with a projected first innings total of 187 and match total of 361.5. If Somerset bat first, their win probability is 53.5% with a projected first innings of 188.5 and match total of 363. Either way, the model sees plenty of runs and a Somerset edge – consistent with the odds from bet365 (WAR 2.25, SOM 1.57) and Ladbrokes (WAR 2.20, SOM 1.67).

Predicted Lineups

Warwickshire (based on last match vs Gloucestershire, 22 May): Rob Yates, Alex Davies (wk), Sam Hain, Jake Webster, Ed Barnard (c), Jordan Thompson, Manraj Jani, Chris Woakes, Tazeem Ali, Olly Hannon-Dalby, Usman Tariq.

Somerset (based on last match vs Hampshire, 22 May): Tom Banton (wk), Will Smeed, Tom Rew, Tom Abell, James Lammonby, Josh Rew, Lewis Gregory (c), Daniel Sams, Archie Goldsworthy, Craig Overton, Jake Ball.

Key Players

Jordan Thompson (WAR) – The all-rounder tops Statz Cricket’s Dream11 projections for this fixture with a rating of 97.3 when Warwickshire bat first. That is comfortably the highest in the match. Thompson offers value with both bat and ball, and the Bears will need him firing on all cylinders if they are to get off the mark this season.

Will Smeed (SOM) – Somerset’s top run-scorer this Blast season with 59 runs from the opening fixture. Smeed is in destructive form and Edgbaston’s flat deck should suit his aggressive style. On a ground where 190+ totals are routine, he is the man most likely to set the tone at the top.

Daniel Sams (SOM) – The Australian all-rounder is projected at 87.8 on Statz Cricket’s Dream11 model, second only to Thompson. Sams already has 2 wickets this campaign and his left-arm pace adds variety to a Somerset attack that also features Craig Overton (3 wickets) and Jake Ball (3 wickets). His death bowling could be decisive.

Tazeem Ali (WAR) – Quietly one of the early standouts in this season’s Blast. His 4 wickets from the opening round put him joint-top of the tournament’s bowling charts alongside Farooqi, Rogers, and Jansen. On a pitch where spin goes at 8.04, his left-arm wrist spin could be Warwickshire’s trump card.

Verdict

Somerset are the stronger side on paper and the data backs it up. Their 54% win probability, superior early-season batting depth – Smeed, Banton, and Josh Rew have already combined for 136 runs – and that 71% away win rate at Edgbaston since 2021 all point one way. Warwickshire have home advantage and Chris Woakes brings international pedigree, but they looked short in their opener and the squad lacks Somerset’s firepower across the board. The projected match total north of 360 suggests a high-scoring affair under clear skies. Somerset to win is the call, and the Statz Cricket Bet Builder is worth exploring for player performance angles around Sams and Thompson in particular. Check the latest projections on the WAR vs SOM fixture page before kick-off.