The Cricket Draft GW3 projections – who to pick, who to captain, who to swerve

27th May 2026

A preview for The Cricket Draft’s 2026 Vitality Blast using our own player projections. Below: who we’re backing per role for the Friday fixtures of GW3, where the boom picks are if you’re chasing in a mini league, and who to leave on the bench. A quick GW1 and GW2 review first as scene-setting, then straight to the picks. If you haven’t picked your XV yet, head over to The Cricket Draft before the Friday deadline.

GW1 and GW2 in numbers

Calvin Harrison was the player of the opening two gameweeks by some distance. Northants’ leg-spinning all-rounder is owned by 8.2% of squads, costs £6.7m, and has racked up 358 points in two outings. That’s 178 a game and a frankly silly 53.4 points per £m of value. He played 14 matches last year, with 12 wickets and 17 catches, so he’s not coming out of nowhere. He’s just kicked it up a level.

The five best value picks of GW1 and GW2 sorted by points per £m of price:

Player	Role	Value	Points	Pts/£m
Calvin Harrison	ALR	£6.7m	358	53.4
Jack Morley	BWL	£5.4m	280	51.9
Tom Clark	BAT	£6.6m	295	44.7
James Rew	WKT	£7.1m	317	44.6
Duan Jansen	ALR	£7.3m	324	44.4

Biggest disappointment: Daniel Lawrence. £8.1m, two games, 9 points. 1.1 points per £m, the worst return of any premium-priced player who’s actually taken the field. Ben Duckett and George Linde are next on the flop list at £8.1m and £8.0m for 47 points each.

Under-the-radar story of GW1 and GW2: Dian Forrester (Kent, £7.6m). 35 runs and 3 wickets in his one outing so far, and our own MVP rating has him at 179.8 from that single match. That’s the highest per-match impact rating of anyone in the Blast this season. He’s been talked about almost nowhere.

GW3 projections by role

Two definitions before we get into it. Safer picks are players we’re projecting for a high score with limited downside. Riskier picks have a much bigger ceiling but more spread, so if you’re already playing catch-up in your mini league this is where you’d punt.

Every line below shows what we’re forecasting on average and a realistic ceiling in TCD points. Our GW3 projections are currently live for the Friday fixtures only. Come back on Friday morning to statz.ai/cricket for our Saturday picks (Sussex v Middlesex at Hove).

Batters

Safer picks

• Michael Pepper (Essex, £7.7m, BAT/WKT). Projection: ~70 average, ceiling 200. 364 runs at a 159 strike rate in last year’s Blast, plus 9 catches. Dual eligibility lets you play him in either slot.
• James Vince (Hampshire, £8.1m). Projection: ~70 average, ceiling 190. 527 runs last year for Hants. Premium price for a reason.

Riskier picks

• Aneurin Donald (Derbyshire, £7.6m, BAT/WKT). Projection: ~65 average, ceiling 265. 449 runs last year at a quick scoring rate. Highest ceiling in the BAT pool but the bust rate is real.
• William Luxton (Yorkshire, £6.1m). Projection: ~50 average, ceiling 225. 329 runs at a Blast-suited strike rate last year. Cheap enough that the downside doesn’t break your team.

Avoid

• Tristan Stubbs (Hampshire, £8.4m). Stubbs came back from the IPL and made an instant impact with a 69-ball innings, fair play, but our projection has him at just 42 average and a 98 ceiling. £8.4m is steep for that.

Bowlers

Safer picks

• Ned Leonard (Glamorgan, £6m). Projection: ~70 average, ceiling 170. 20 wickets in 10 Blast matches last year. Cheapest of our top bowling picks.
• George Balderson (Lancashire, £6.9m). Projection: ~70 average, ceiling 110. Left-field pick who bowls the harder overs for Lancs. Cheap top-tier captain option too.
• Ben Raine (Durham, £7.3m). Projection: ~70 average, ceiling 160. 17 wickets in 9 matches last year. Durham bowl him at the top and the death.

Riskier picks

• Ben Sanderson (Northants, £7m). Projection: ~60 average, ceiling 255. 26 wickets in 16 Blast matches last year. The kind of pick who blanks one week and produces a 5-for the next.
• Matty Potts (Durham, £7.7m). Projection: ~60 average, ceiling 260. 16 wickets in 9 matches last year. When the new ball moves and Durham defend a total, he gets paid.
• Farhan Ahmed (Notts, £5.8m). Projection: ~50 average, ceiling 225. 8 wickets in 6 last year. £5.8m for a wicket-taker has value, and spin can be a difference-maker in tight games.

All-rounders

The most-rewarded role in TCD scoring. Worth getting right.

Safer picks

• Sikandar Raza (Worcestershire, £8.2m). Projection: ~85 average, ceiling 190. The kind of all-rounder who gets you points on both sides of the ball every week.
• David Willey (Northants, £8.4m). Projection: ~70 average, ceiling 165. 452 runs and 20 wickets last year. Bowls the powerplay and the death, bats whenever there’s wickets in hand.
• Ben Green (Leicestershire, £7.1m). Projection: ~70 average, ceiling 165. 196 runs and 20 wickets across 17 matches in last year’s Blast. Cheaper of the elite all-rounders.

Riskier picks

• Sam Curran (Surrey, £8.8m). Projection: ~85 average, ceiling 200. Important caveat: Sam came back from the IPL with a groin issue and hasn’t bowled at all in his first two games for Surrey. The 71 not out at Lord’s was excellent, but if you’re paying £8.8m you want the bowling overs back. We’ve moved him to riskier until he’s bowling again, because half his points value at this price is the bowling.
• Lewis Gregory (Somerset, £7.6m). Projection: ~70 average, ceiling 225. Played all 16 last year for 293 runs and 15 wickets. Boom potential with two roles.
• Dian Forrester (Kent, £7.6m). Projection: ~55 average, ceiling 215. 35 runs, 3 wickets and a 179.8 MVP rating from his one outing this season. Bowling and fielding add a floor most all-rounders don’t have.
• Saif Zaib (Northants, £7.2m). Projection: ~60 average, ceiling 255. 303 runs and 4 wickets last year. Cheap boom.

Avoid

• Moeen Ali (Yorkshire, £7.9m). Projection: ~60 average, ceiling 180. Brand-name attraction but he’s below several cheaper all-rounders in our projections. We’re not backing him at the price.

Wicketkeepers

Three names to consider. Don’t double up at the role.

Safer pick

• Tom Banton (Somerset, £8.1m). Projection: ~65 average, ceiling 160. Somerset’s first-choice keeper in the Blast. If you’re picking one Somerset keeper, this is the call.

Riskier pick

• Jonny Bairstow (Yorkshire, £8.0m). Projection: ~55 average, ceiling 135. 81 from 47 in his GW1 outing, plus 177 runs in 7 Blast matches last year. Big floor on his day, less consistent than Banton.

Value pick

• James Rew (Somerset, £7.1m). Projection: ~55 average, ceiling 150. 317 points already on the board at £7.1m, the cheapest premium WK by some way. If your XV can’t fit Banton, Rew is the play, but don’t pick both.

Captain picks

Captain doubles. Vice-captain returns 1.5x. The picks ranked by overall projected score.

1. George Balderson (Lancashire BWL, £6.9m). Our top-projected single player of the round across any role. Cheap top-tier captain, and Lancashire are the second-biggest favourites of GW3 at 56.5% (behind only Somerset).
2. Sam Curran (Surrey ALR, £8.8m). Top-projected all-rounder of the round. Bowling caveat applies (see above), so if you’re nervous, drop him to VC.
3. Ben Raine (Durham BWL, £7.3m). Top-projected player in a 406-projected-total game against Yorkshire, the second-highest match total of the round.

If you’re chasing in your mini league, lean Balderson captain with a riskier VC like Saif Zaib or Matty Potts.

Best value picks across all roles

Squeeze the budget with these, all GW3 projections backed by actual GW1 and GW2 performance:

• Jack Morley (Derbyshire BWL, £5.4m). Top of our value list. 7 wickets in two games at £5.4m.
• Ned Leonard (Glamorgan BWL, £6m). Covered above. Pick him.
• Matthew Montgomery (Derbyshire BAT, £6.4m). 190 runs and 15 wickets last year, 75 not out in his last outing.
• Calvin Harrison (Northants ALR, £6.7m). Top scorer of GW1 and GW2, still good value at GW3 projection levels.
• James Rew (Somerset WKT, £7.1m). Covered above. Premium production at a value price.

Targeted fixtures

Eight Friday fixtures. Here’s where our projections see the most runs, the biggest team edges, and where to lean toward bowlers. Every stack pick below is in their team’s most recent XI.

Two highest-scoring games:

• Derbyshire v Nottinghamshire at Derby. Joint highest match total of the round at 407. Notts edge the win probability 50.2% to 47.8%, a genuine coin-flip. Stack picks: Jack Morley (Derbys BWL), Mohammad Ali (Notts BWL), Benny Howell (Notts ALR), Matthew Montgomery (Derbys ALR). All four project at 77+ TCD points.
• Durham v Yorkshire at the Riverside. Match total 406. Durham 51.1% favourites. Ben Raine is joint-top of the round at 100.6 projected TCD points, with Matty Potts on 91. Yorkshire counters: Andrew Tye (BWL) and Moeen Ali (ALR).

Biggest favourite of the round, and also the lowest-scoring game:

• Glamorgan v Somerset at Sophia Gardens. Somerset 58.5% away, the strongest single-team edge of GW3. Match total 306, the lowest of the round, which makes it the most bowler-friendly game on paper. Ned Leonard (£6m) is the value play for Glam at 97 projected. Somerset side: Daniel Sams (ALR), Jake Ball (BWL), Lewis Gregory (ALR).

Other strong favourites:

• Lancashire v Leicestershire at Old Trafford. Lancs 56.5%, second-biggest fav of the round. Match total 354. George Balderson is our top-projected single player of GW3 at 108. Harry Singh adds a Lancs batting angle. Leics counters: Ben Green (ALR) and Ben Mike (ALR).
• Hampshire v Surrey at the Rose Bowl. Surrey 56.0% away. Sam Curran is joint-top of all GW3 player projections at 100.6 (bowling caveat from the captain section still applies). Yousef Majid and Tom Curran fill out the Surrey all-rounder spine. Scott Currie is the standout Hampshire pick.
• Kent v Essex at Canterbury. Kent 53.6%. Match total 341. Paul Walter (Essex ALR) and Stewart Rogers (Kent ALR) lead the picks at 84 each, with Michael Pepper (Essex BAT/WKT) and Dian Forrester (Kent BAT) close behind.
• Northamptonshire v Gloucestershire at Northampton. Northants 52.0%, match total 343. Five names worth your attention: Duan Jansen (Glos BWL, our top-projected player here at 90), David Willey, Ben Sanderson and Calvin Harrison (all Northants), plus Matthew Taylor for Glos.

Tight one to watch:

• Worcestershire v Warwickshire at Worcester. Bears 50.9%, Worcs 47.1%, the tightest matchup of the round. Match total 347. Tom Taylor (Worcs ALR, 90 projected) and Jordan Thompson (Bears ALR, 89) lead it. Add Sikandar Raza and Matthew Waite for Worcs, Beau Webster for the Bears.

Full season-long league probabilities (who we’ve got winning the whole thing) are on our league probability tables.

Go play

Head to The Cricket Draft and pick your XV before Friday’s deadline. There’s plenty of room for you to overtake your league with a sharp GW3.

Good luck for the weekend.