Sussex vs Surrey Preview – T20 Blast 2026 | Statz

26th June 2026

Sussex vs Surrey is a south-coast derby in the T20 Blast 2026 at the County Ground, Hove on Thursday evening. Surrey sit 6th on 12 points (W3 L3) while Sussex are down in 13th with just 8 points (W2 L4). First ball is at 23:30 IST (19:00 BST).

The Venue

The County Ground at Hove is a run-scoring paradise. Across 30 T20s since May 2022, the average first-innings total is a hefty 181.2 and the average match total sits at 341.3. Teams batting first win 57% of the time here, so winning the toss and choosing to bat has real value. Pace bowlers take 72.8% of wickets but at a costly economy of 9.27, while spinners are more economical at 8.01 and take 23.2% of dismissals. The most recent T20 here saw Sussex chase down 134 against Kent on 07 Jun 2026. The Statz pitch tag reads: Batting paradise.

Form and Table

Sussex have been struggling. Four defeats in their last five matches, and they have been bowled out twice in that run. The only relief was a comfortable chase against Kent. Their last five results:

Surrey have been inconsistent with three wins and three losses. Their two defeats to Hampshire and the Kent loss are blemishes, but the batting depth is significant. Their last five results:

Table (Top 4):

Pos Team P W L Pts
1 Northamptonshire 6 6 0 24
2 Gloucestershire 6 5 1 20
3 Hampshire 6 5 1 20
4 Yorkshire 6 4 2 16

Sussex (13th, 8 pts) need wins urgently. Surrey (6th, 12 pts) are in the chasing pack and a win here keeps them within striking distance of the top four. Both sides have eight group matches remaining.

Head-to-Head

These two have met 8 times since June 2022 (Statz data) with Surrey winning 5 to Sussex’s 3. Surrey have won the last three meetings, including twice in 2025. Surrey also have an excellent record at Hove – 3 wins from 4 visits in the Statz dataset.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections strongly favour Surrey regardless of batting order. If Sussex bat first, Surrey’s win probability sits at 58.2% with a projected first innings of 172 (P10: 138, P90: 203) and a match total of 335. If Surrey bat first, that win probability holds at 58.5% with a projected first innings of 180 (P10: 154, P90: 206) and a match total of 343.3 – broadly in line with the venue average of 341.3.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap (Top Run Scorers):

  1. Beau Webster – 288 runs (6 inn)
  2. George Munsey – 251 runs (6 inn)
  3. Jonny Bairstow – 250 runs (6 inn)
  4. Chris Lynn – 245 runs (6 inn)
  5. Martin Andersson – 237 runs (6 inn)

Purple Cap (Top Wicket Takers):

  1. Duan Jansen – 16 wkts (6 inn)
  2. James Sales – 16 wkts (6 inn)
  3. Adam Finch – 12 wkts (6 inn)
  4. Scott Currie – 12 wkts (6 inn)
  5. Mohammad Ali – 12 wkts (6 inn)

Sussex Season Leaders:

Surrey Season Leaders:

Predicted XIs

Sussex (based on XI from 07 Jun 2026 vs Kent):

Harrison Ward, Daniel Hughes, Jack Leaning, John Simpson (wk), Oliver Carter, Tom Alsop, Danny Lamb, Henry Crocombe, Danny Briggs, Tymal Mills (c), Sean Hunt

Surrey (based on 12-player squad from 05 Jun 2026 vs Hampshire):

Jason Roy, Will Jacks, Ollie Pope (wk), Sam Curran (c), Daniel Lawrence, Laurie Evans, Tom Curran, Jordan Clark, Chris Jordan, Seb Stuart-Reckling, Reece Topley, Sean Abbott

12 players named – one will be omitted on match day.

Note: Always check the Statz fixture page for any toss-time changes to the playing XI.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Captain: Sam Curran – Projected 96.1 Dream11 points. Surrey’s captain and leading run-scorer (168 runs at 28.0) also chips in with the ball (projected 0.87 wickets). The ultimate all-rounder pick for this fixture.

Vice Captain: Will Jacks – Projected 95.2 Dream11 points. Surrey’s explosive batter is projected for 31.2 runs in this match. His ability to clear the ropes on a batting-friendly surface makes him a premium pick.

Also consider:

Key Players

Sam Curran (SUR) – Surrey’s leading run-scorer with 168 runs at 28.0 and a high score of 71. He also provides valuable overs with the ball. As captain and star all-rounder, he is the most influential player in this fixture. Build your bet here.

Tymal Mills (SUS) – Sussex’s leading wicket-taker with 10 scalps. His 1+ wicket hit rate is 66.7% for the season but 80% in the last 5. More impressively, his 2+ wicket rate is 66.7% for the season and 80% in the last 5 – outstanding consistency for a T20 bowler.

Reece Topley (SUR) – Joint-leading wicket-taker for Surrey with 10 wickets. A 100% hit rate for 1+ wickets this season and 66.7% for 2+ wickets. The left-arm quick is projected for 1.39 wickets.

Daniel Hughes (SUS) – Sussex’s leading run-scorer with 181 runs at 30.17. His 20+ runs hit rate is 80% in the last 5 and 83.3% for the season – remarkably consistent. A key performer if Sussex are to compete.

Conditions

Fair skies at Hove with a temperature of 25 degrees, higher humidity at 79% and light winds – no rain expected and conditions favouring uninterrupted play.

Verdict and Betting Angles

Surrey are the clear favourites here and rightly so. The Statz model gives them a 58% win probability regardless of batting order, they lead the head-to-head 5-3, and their squad depth is far superior to a struggling Sussex side with four defeats in five. On a batting paradise at Hove, Surrey’s firepower through Will Jacks, Sam Curran and Jason Roy should be decisive. Surrey to win at 1.53 (bet365) is the pick.

Bet Builder Angles:

Build your bet for Sussex vs Surrey on Statz.