Surrey vs Sussex Preview – T20 Blast 2026 | Statz

6th July 2026

Surrey host Sussex at the Kennington Oval on Wednesday for a T20 Blast clash with significant implications for both sides’ quarter-final hopes. First ball is at 17:30 BST on 8 July.

Surrey sit 8th in the table on 20 points from 9 matches, level with Glamorgan and Essex but with a game in hand on most rivals. Sussex languish in 17th on just 8 points from 9 matches – a run of seven defeats in their last nine has left them staring at elimination. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Surrey vs Sussex fixture page on Statz.

The Venue

The Kennington Oval has been a fortress for Surrey this season. Across the last 31 T20 matches here, the average match total stands at 331.9 with a first-innings average of 178.2. Surrey’s home record at the ground reads W21 L12 since 2021 – a 63.6% win rate that underlines their dominance on this pitch.

The surface is tagged as Balanced by Statz. Pace bowlers have accounted for 70.2% of wickets at an economy of 9.6, while spinners have been more economical at 8.61 but take only 22.9% of dismissals. The boundary percentage of 58.3% suggests aggressive cricket is rewarded here. Sussex’s away record at the Oval reads W2 L2 since 2021 – they have won just twice in four visits, with an average score of 17.6 per innings.

Form and Table

Surrey – 8th (P9 W5 L4, 20 pts)

Surrey have steadied the ship with back-to-back wins against Essex and Middlesex, but the loss to Gloucestershire on 4 July has halted momentum. Their last five matches show three wins and two defeats:

Sussex – 17th (P9 W2 L7, 8 pts)

Sussex are in freefall. Seven defeats in their last nine matches have left them second-bottom of the table with their quarter-final hopes hanging by a thread. Their last five reads:

Standings Snapshot

Pos Team P W L Pts
1 Northamptonshire 9 8 1 32
2 Hampshire 9 7 2 28
3 Nottinghamshire 10 7 3 28
8 Surrey 9 5 4 20
17 Sussex 9 2 7 8

Surrey have a realistic path to the quarter-finals. Sussex need to win this and several others to stay alive – a defeat here would leave them needing a miracle.

Head-to-Head

Surrey dominate this fixture. In nine meetings since 2021, Surrey have won six to Sussex’s three. The most recent clash came on 26 June 2026 at the Oval, where Surrey chased down Sussex’s 171/10 with ease, reaching 175/3 in just 15.3 overs. That victory showcased Surrey’s class – they have won four of their last five against Sussex, with only a loss in 2023 breaking the streak.

At the Kennington Oval specifically, Surrey’s record is W3 L1 against Sussex since 2021. The one defeat came in 2022, but Surrey have won the last three meetings here, including the recent 26 June victory. Sussex have never won at this ground in the modern era of T20 Blast data.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections make this a one-sided affair.

If Surrey bat first: Projected first-innings total of 184.9, match total of 351.7. Win probability – SUR 61.2%, SUS 36.8%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 159 to 211.

If Sussex bat first: Projected first-innings total of 175.3, match total of 342.8. Win probability – SUR 62.2%, SUS 35.8%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 140 to 207.

Both scenarios favour Surrey heavily. The projected match totals of 342-352 sit above the Oval average of 331.9, suggesting a high-scoring contest. Critically, Sussex’s projected first-innings totals (175-185) are well below Surrey’s, reflecting the gulf in current form and quality.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap – Top 5 Run-Scorers

Player Team Runs Inn
Beau Webster Warwickshire 552 10
George Munsey Nottinghamshire 460 10
Alex Lees Durham 385 9
James Rew Somerset 372 7
D’Arcy Short Gloucestershire 368 10

Purple Cap – Top 5 Wicket-Takers

Player Team Wkts Inn
Hasan Ali Yorkshire 22 9
Mohammad Ali Nottinghamshire 19 10
Scott Currie Hampshire 18 9
James Sales Northamptonshire 18 9
Andrew Tye Yorkshire 17 10

Surrey Season Leaders

Runs: Jason Roy – 231 runs, avg 25.67, HS 65 | Daniel Lawrence – 206 runs, avg 22.89, HS 94 | Ollie Pope – 193 runs, avg 21.44, HS 59

Wickets: Reece Topley – 17 wkts, avg 1.89, best 3 | Tom Lawes – 8 wkts, avg 2.0, best 3 | Tom Curran – 8 wkts, avg 0.89, best 3

Sussex Season Leaders

Runs: Daniel Hughes – 266 runs, avg 29.56, HS 45 | Harrison Ward – 192 runs, avg 32.0, HS 69 | Tom Alsop – 168 runs, avg 18.67, HS 43

Wickets: Tymal Mills – 12 wkts, avg 1.33, best 3 | Danny Briggs – 9 wkts, avg 1.0, best 2 | Sean Hunt – 6 wkts, avg 1.5, best 3

Predicted XIs

Surrey (based on XI vs Gloucestershire, 4 Jul 2026)

  1. Laurie Evans
  2. Jason Roy
  3. Josh Philippe (wk)
  4. Daniel Lawrence
  5. Ollie Pope (c)
  6. Tom Curran
  7. Chris Jordan
  8. Tom Lawes
  9. Reece Topley
  10. Yousef Majid
  11. Sean Abbott

Sussex (based on XI vs Essex, 3 Jul 2026)

  1. Harrison Ward
  2. Daniel Hughes
  3. George Thomas
  4. Tom Alsop (wk)
  5. John Simpson
  6. Oliver Carter
  7. Jack Carson
  8. Danny Briggs
  9. Henry Crocombe
  10. Sean Hunt
  11. Tymal Mills (c)

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:

Captain: Will Jacks (SUR) – projected 96.9 pts. The explosive batter has been in fine touch, with 179 runs at 35.8 average from 9 matches. His strike rate of 162.7 makes him a genuine game-changer, and his 60% hit rate for 20+ runs this season is elite.

Vice Captain: Sam Curran (SUR) – projected 97.6 pts. The all-rounder offers dual value with 177 runs at 25.29 average plus 4 wickets. His projected 28 runs and 0.92 wickets per match make him a reliable fantasy asset.

Also consider:

Key Players

Will Jacks (Surrey)

The young batter has emerged as Surrey’s most explosive force. With 179 runs at 35.8 average from 9 matches, Jacks combines consistency with aggression. His strike rate of 162.7 is elite, and his 60% hit rate for 20+ runs this season shows he delivers when it matters. Against a Sussex bowling attack in disarray, Jacks could run riot.

Reece Topley (Surrey)

The left-arm pacer has been Surrey’s standout bowler. With 17 wickets at 1.89 average from 9 matches, Topley has taken a wicket in 100% of his appearances this season – a remarkable consistency rate. His economy of 8.99 is also excellent. Against Sussex’s fragile batting order, Topley could be the difference-maker.

Daniel Hughes (Sussex)

Sussex’s most reliable batter. Hughes has 266 runs at 29.56 average from 9 matches, with a 77.8% hit rate for 20+ runs – the highest on the Sussex roster. He has scored 45, 38 and 2 in his last three, showing both form and inconsistency. Against Surrey’s attack, Hughes needs to anchor the innings.

Tymal Mills (Sussex)

Sussex’s captain and leading wicket-taker with 12 wickets at 1.33 average from 9 matches. Mills has taken a wicket in 55.6% of matches this season and 2+ wickets in 55.6% – strong numbers for a death bowler. His economy of 10.38 is expensive, but his wicket-taking ability is Sussex’s best hope of restricting Surrey.

Conditions

Partly cloudy skies are forecast for the Oval with temperatures around 22 degrees at the start and humidity at 41%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 4.8 km/h from the south-west – ideal batting conditions throughout the evening.

Verdict and Betting Angles

This is a mismatch on paper. Surrey are flying at home, Sussex are in freefall, and the Statz projections give Surrey a 61.7% win probability – a strong edge. The bookmakers agree. Indicative odds have Surrey at 1.44 and Sussex at 2.75.

I am backing Surrey here without hesitation. They have won four of their last five against Sussex, they have won three straight at the Oval against this opponent, and their bowling attack – led by Topley – is far superior to Sussex’s. Sussex’s batting has collapsed in recent weeks, and there is nothing in the data to suggest they can turn it around here.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture: