Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit Prediction, Projections & Preview
2nd August 2026
Sunrisers Leeds host London Spirit at Headingley on Tuesday 4 August for the 20th match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 17:30 BST. This is a crucial mid-table clash with both sides eyeing a push towards the knockout stages. For full H2H stats, projections and lineups, visit the Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss Prediction
Headingley is a big ground that has hosted 10 Hundred matches this season, with an average match total of 314.4 runs. The average first-innings score stands at 174.8, suggesting a pitch that rewards batting but does not run away with scoring. Teams batting first have won exactly 50% of matches here – no toss advantage either way. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz.
Seam bowlers have dominated at Headingley, taking 61.3% of wickets at an economy of 12.25 runs per over. Spinners account for 30.2% of dismissals at a tighter economy of 11.43. The ground has seen an average of 14.6 sixes per match – a respectable total for a Hundred venue. Openers have been the top scorers in 9 of the 10 matches played here this season, underlining the value of getting a quick start.
Form and Table Position
Sunrisers Leeds – 6th (P3 W2 L1, 8 pts)
Sunrisers Leeds are in the middle of the pack but trending upwards. They have won two of their last three matches, including a dominant 8-wicket victory over Manchester Super Giants on 28 July (chasing down 181 in just 88 balls) and a 5-run win over Southern Brave on 25 July. Their only loss came to Trent Rockets on 2 August, when they fell short at 141/4 chasing 146.
London Spirit – 7th (P4 W1 L3, 4 pts)
London Spirit are struggling in the bottom half of the table with just one win from four matches. They have lost three of their last four outings, most recently going down to Southern Brave on 1 August (105/10 vs 111/5). Their sole win came against MI London on 29 July (165/3 vs 164/5). The pressure is mounting on this side to turn things around.
Standings Snapshot
| Position | Team | P | W | L | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trent Rockets | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | +1.108 |
| 2 | Welsh Fire | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -0.267 |
| 3 | Manchester Super Giants | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | +1.184 |
| 4 | Southern Brave | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | +0.44 |
| 5 | MI London | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | +0.358 |
| 6 | Sunrisers Leeds | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -0.659 |
| 7 | London Spirit | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -0.489 |
| 8 | Birmingham Phoenix | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1.855 |
Head-to-Head Record
Sunrisers Leeds hold a narrow edge in the all-time H2H, leading 3-2 from five meetings. The most recent clash saw Sunrisers Leeds win, but London Spirit have shown they can compete. The fixture is finely balanced on paper, though Sunrisers’ current form and home advantage tilt the scales in their favour.
Statz Projections and Who Will Win?
The Statz projections make this a coin-flip contest with a slight lean to the home side. Sunrisers Leeds are favoured at 50.3% to win, with London Spirit at 43.2%. The projected match total is 342 runs.
If Sunrisers bat first: Projected first-innings total of 178.2, match total of 343.4. Win probability – SL 50.1%, LS 43.4%, tie/NR 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 151 to 204.
If London Spirit bat first: Projected first-innings total of 174.3, match total of 339.6. Win probability – SL 50.5%, LS 43%, tie/NR 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 147 to 202.
Both projected first-innings totals sit below the Headingley average of 174.8, suggesting the model rates the bowling attacks highly. The projected match totals of 340-343 are well above the venue average of 314.4, indicating an expectation of a high-scoring affair.
Predicted Lineups
Sunrisers Leeds (based on most recent XI)
- Mitchell Marsh
- Ryan Rickelton (wk)
- Zak Crawley (c)
- Harry Brook
- Daniel Lawrence
- Tom Alsop
- Liam Patterson-White
- Brydon Carse
- Matty Potts
- Nathan Ellis
- Abrar Ahmed
London Spirit (based on most recent XI)
- Lhuan-dre Pretorius
- Jonny Bairstow (wk)
- Liam Livingstone (c)
- James Rew
- Dewald Brevis
- James Coles
- Jamie Overton
- David Willey
- Andrew Tye
- Adam Milne
- Adam Zampa
These lineups are based on the most recent matches for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Key Players
Mitchell Marsh (Sunrisers Leeds)
The Australian all-rounder has been the standout performer for Sunrisers this season with 214 runs at an average of 53.5 from four matches. His last three scores of 69, 63 and 41 show a player in exceptional form. Marsh has scored 20+ runs in 100% of his matches this season and 30+ runs in 100% of his last five outings – an extraordinary consistency rate. The Statz projections show him scoring 50.7 runs in this fixture, making him the top projected Dream11 points scorer at 75.5 points.
Liam Livingstone (London Spirit)
London Spirit’s captain and most important player. Livingstone has 123 runs at 30.75 from four matches with a high score of 69. He provides balance across batting and bowling, with the projections showing him at 30.4 runs and 0.4 wickets in this fixture. His 30+ run hit rate stands at 50% for the season, and he has taken 1+ wicket in multiple matches. A genuine match-winner on both sides of the ball.
Harry Brook (Sunrisers Leeds)
The England batter has 99 runs at 24.75 from four matches with a high score of 46. Brook has hit 20+ runs in 50% of his matches this season and 30+ runs in 50% of his outings. The projections show him at 30.3 runs with a strike rate of 166.8 – a dangerous combination. He is also the top fielder for Sunrisers with three catches this season.
Adam Zampa (London Spirit)
The Australian leg-spinner brings world-class quality to the London Spirit bowling attack. Zampa is projected at 1.34 wickets in this fixture with an economy of 9.53 – tight bowling from a strike bowler. He has taken 1+ wicket in 25% of his matches this season and provides the crucial death-overs option for Spirit.
Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain
Captain: Mitchell Marsh (SL) – Projected 75.5 points. The form player of the tournament with 100% hit rate for 20+ runs this season. His projected 50.7 runs make him the safest captain choice in this fixture.
Vice Captain: Liam Livingstone (LS) – Projected 58.3 points. London Spirit’s talisman with dual threat across batting and bowling. His all-round contributions and match-winning ability make him a strong vice captain pick.
Also consider:
- Jonny Bairstow (LS) – Projected 52.2 points – 66.7% hit rate for 20+ runs this season
- Zak Crawley (SL) – Projected 32.4 runs – Sunrisers captain with 50% hit rate for 20+ runs
- David Willey (LS) – Projected 53.3 points – All-rounder with 75% wicket hit rate this season
Best Bets and Bet Builder Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture. The best bets identified by Statz include:
- Mitchell Marsh 50+ Runs – At 3.75 odds with a true probability of 37.6%, this offers value. Marsh has hit 50+ in multiple matches this season and is in peak form.
- Mitchell Marsh Over 22.5 Runs – At 1.83 odds with a true probability of 64.8%, this is a strong backing of his form. He has scored 20+ in every match this season.
- Zak Crawley Over 16.5 Runs – At 1.83 odds with a true probability of 64.8%, Crawley’s 50% hit rate for 20+ runs makes this a solid play.
Who Will Win Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit?
Sunrisers Leeds are favoured at 50.3% to win this match, with London Spirit at 43.2%. The home side’s recent form – two wins from three – combined with their superior net run rate and the slight toss advantage at Headingley tips this in their favour. Mitchell Marsh’s exceptional form is a major factor, while London Spirit’s struggles in the bottom half of the table suggest they will need a near-perfect performance to pull off an upset.
The Statz projections make this a genuine coin-flip, but Sunrisers’ momentum and home advantage edge them ahead. London Spirit have the talent – particularly in Livingstone and their bowling attack – but consistency has been an issue. Expect a high-scoring match with both sides capable of posting 170+ first-innings totals.
Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit Prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit?
A: Sunrisers Leeds are favoured at 50.3% to win, with London Spirit at 43.2%. The home side’s recent form and Mitchell Marsh’s exceptional run-scoring make them slight favourites, but this is a tight contest with nothing guaranteed.
Q: What is the projected match total?
A: The Statz projections show a match total of 342 runs. Both teams are expected to post first-innings totals around 174-178, suggesting a high-scoring affair well above the Headingley average of 314.4.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: There is no toss advantage at Headingley – teams batting first have won exactly 50% of matches here this season. The toss is essentially a coin flip, with both sides equally likely to bat or bowl first.
Q: Is Sunrisers Leeds a good bet?
A: At indicative odds around 1.80-1.90, Sunrisers Leeds offer reasonable value given their 50.3% win probability. Their form and home advantage support the pick, though London Spirit’s quality means this is far from settled.