Sporting vs Arsenal Prediction – Champions League Quarter-Final Second Leg

7th April 2026

The setup

Arsenal travel to Lisbon in what could be a formality – or could it? Sporting host the Gunners in the second leg of this Champions League quarter-final, and Statz data tells one clear story heading in: Arsenal are relentless right now. Five wins from five, no wobbles. Sporting have mixed form – won two, drew one, lost one of their last five. But they’re at home, they’ll push, and the Estádio José Alvalade will be bouncing.

Arsenal line up in their familiar 4-3-3. Sporting go 4-2-3-1. Referee Daniel Siebert has a live game on his hands – 21.46 fouls per game average and 3.23 yellows. Cards are coming.

Lineups

Sporting (4-2-3-1): R. Silva; Fresneda, Diomande, Inácio, Araújo; Morita, Simões; Gonçalves, Catamo, Trincão; L. Suárez

Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Magalhães, Calafiori; Rice, Zubimendi, Ødegaard; Madueke, Gyökeres, Martinelli

Key stats from Statz

Viktor Gyökeres leads the Arsenal line – and that’s the big talking point. The striker spent his career at Sporting before joining Arsenal, making his return to Lisbon rather spicy. He’s racked up 10 fouls committed in his last 10 games – opposition defenders know they need to rough him up to stop him.

Speaking of roughing up – Sporting’s Araújo leads both sides for fouls committed with 14 in his last 10 games. Diomande (11) and Trincão (11) aren’t far behind. On the Arsenal side, Saka tops the charts with 10 fouls committed, with Zubimendi (8) and Hincapié (8) active too.

Declan Rice has been a yellow card merchant this season – 6 fouls committed in L10 means Siebert will have him in his sights. Tchouaméni parallel at Real on the same night but here it’s Rice who needs to stay switched on.

The angle

This game has cards written all over it. Siebert averages 3.23 yellows per game. Both sides have foulers in their lineups. Araújo vs Gyökeres is the matchup to watch – the Sporting full-back committed 14 fouls in his last 10 and will be tasked with stopping the man who used to train at this ground. Both Araújo and Gyökeres to receive a card isn’t a bad bet builder shout.

Arsenal’s 5-from-5 form suggests they’re the quality side here. Statz projects them as the stronger outfit and the away win or draw should see them through. But Sporting at home, needing a result, will make noise. Expect goals.

The pick

Arsenal to qualify. For the match itself, both teams to score looks nailed on – Sporting will get something, Arsenal have the clinical edge. And if you’re building: Araújo to be carded (committed 14 fouls in L10, Siebert in charge) is the standout value angle on this game.