Southern Brave vs MI London preview – The Hundred 2026 | Statz Cricket
25th July 2026
Southern Brave host MI London at The Rose Bowl on Monday for the 9th Match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 17:30 BST on 27 July.
Brave are in deep trouble. After two matches, they sit bottom of the table with zero points – losses to Sunrisers Leeds and Welsh Fire have left them needing a sharp turnaround. MI London, by contrast, are flying high at the summit on 4 points from a single match, with a net run rate of +3.136 after hammering Sunrisers Leeds. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Southern Brave vs MI London fixture page on Statz.
The Venue
The Rose Bowl is a bowler’s paradise. Across 10 T20 matches here, the average match total stands at 260 runs – well below what you might expect in The Hundred. The average first-innings score is just 140, with seam bowlers taking 71.3% of wickets at an economy of 9.97, while spinners account for 20.9% of dismissals at 9.66. The pitch is tagged as Bowler Friendly by Statz.
Southern Brave have a mixed record at home. Since 2021, they have won 13 of 21 matches here (61.9%), but their recent form has been dire – losses to Welsh Fire and Sunrisers Leeds suggest the home advantage is not translating into wins. MI London have won 2 of their 3 away matches in The Hundred history, though they have limited data at this ground.
Form and Table Position
Southern Brave – 6th (P2 W0 L2, 0 pts)
Brave are in freefall. After opening losses to Sunrisers Leeds (182/5 to 187/5) and Welsh Fire (135/7 to 138/4), they sit at the foot of the table with a net run rate of -0.338. Their batting has been anaemic – 135 and 182 are well below the competition average – and their bowling has lacked penetration. They must find runs and wickets fast.
MI London – 1st (P1 W1 L0, 4 pts)
MI London have made a statement. In their opening match against Sunrisers Leeds on 21 July, they chased down 144 in 84 balls with 3 wickets in hand, posting 144/3 to win by 7 wickets. That victory, combined with a net run rate of +3.136, has them top of the table. They have momentum, quality batting and a bowling attack that can suffocate opposition.
Standings Snapshot
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MI London | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +3.136 |
| 2 | Birmingham Phoenix | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +0.6 |
| 3 | Manchester Super Giants | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +0.42 |
| 4 | Welsh Fire | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +0.349 |
| 5 | Sunrisers Leeds | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1.63 |
| 6 | Southern Brave | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -0.338 |
Head-to-Head
MI London have dominated this fixture. In six meetings, MI London have won five to Brave’s one. The most recent clash came on 18 August 2025 at The Rose Bowl, where MI London chased down 133/10 in 98 balls, winning by 7 wickets with 11 balls remaining. That result encapsulates the gulf in class – Brave could not even post a defendable total, and MI London hunted them down with ease.
At this ground specifically, MI London have won 2 of 3 away matches against Brave since 2021. The data is stark: MI London are the superior side in this fixture, and Brave have not beaten them here in recent memory.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections favour MI London decisively.
If Southern Brave bat first: Projected first-innings total of 134, match total of 260.8. Win probability – SB 35.8%, MI London 57.7%, no result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 112 to 156.
If MI London bat first: Projected first-innings total of 136.9, match total of 263.6. Win probability – SB 45.4%, MI London 48.1%, no result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 117 to 158.
Both projected match totals sit around 260-264, in line with The Rose Bowl’s low-scoring reputation. The model rates MI London’s bowling attack highly – they suppress opposition first-innings totals to around 134-137 regardless of who bats first. Brave’s batting, meanwhile, is projected to struggle to 134-137 in either scenario. Match total P10-P90 range: 218 to 309.
Competition Season Leaders
Orange Cap – Top 5 Run-Scorers
| Player | Team | Runs | Inn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Marsh | Sunrisers Leeds | 110 | 2 |
| Liam Livingstone | London Spirit | 69 | 1 |
| Joe Clarke | Birmingham Phoenix | 68 | 1 |
| Tim Seifert | Manchester Super Giants | 67 | 1 |
| Tom Banton | Trent Rockets | 67 | 1 |
Purple Cap – Top 5 Wicket-Takers
| Player | Team | Wkts | Inn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Gleeson | MI London | 4 | 1 |
| Adil Rashid | Southern Brave | 3 | 2 |
| Adam Zampa | London Spirit | 2 | 1 |
| Sam Curran | MI London | 2 | 1 |
| Liam Livingstone | London Spirit | 2 | 1 |
Predicted XIs
Southern Brave (based on XI vs Welsh Fire, 22 Jul 2026)
- Jamie Smith (wk)
- Ben McKinney
- Marcus Stoinis
- David Miller
- Tristan Stubbs
- Nikhil Chaudhary
- Chris Jordan (c)
- Jofra Archer
- Adil Rashid
- Luke Wood
- Daniel Worrall
MI London (based on XI vs Sunrisers Leeds, 21 Jul 2026)
- James Vince
- Will Jacks
- Jason Roy
- Sam Curran (c)
- Nicholas Pooran (wk)
- Tom Curran
- Rashid Khan
- Trent Boult
- Richard Gleeson
- Nathan Sowter
- Josh Philippe
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain
Captain: Sam Curran (MI London) – projected 122.8 Dream11 points. The all-rounder has delivered 60 runs and 2 wickets in his opening match. His projected 27.5 runs and 1.5 wickets make him the standout captain choice, with a strike rate of 157.4 showing aggressive intent.
Vice Captain: Nicholas Pooran (MI London) – projected 95.1 Dream11 points. The West Indian wicketkeeper-batter has 58 runs from one match and projects for 39.2 runs at a strike rate of 169.1. His explosive batting makes him a reliable vice captain pick.
Also consider:
- Will Jacks (MI London) – projected 67.1 pts – 204 career runs in The Hundred with 16 sixes, the most prolific batter in this fixture
- Tom Curran (MI London) – projected 90.2 pts – all-rounder with 9 career wickets and 72 runs in this fixture, dual threat
- Rashid Khan (MI London) – projected 84.3 pts – elite spinner with 1.38 projected wickets per match on a bowler-friendly pitch
Key Players
Sam Curran (MI London)
The England all-rounder is MI London’s engine room. In his opening match, he scored 60 runs and took 2 wickets – a complete performance. His projected 27.5 runs and 1.5 wickets in this fixture show he is expected to dominate. Against a struggling Brave batting order, Curran’s ability to contribute with both bat and ball makes him the player Brave must contain.
Will Jacks (MI London)
The Surrey batter has been a force in this fixture. With 204 career runs and 16 sixes across six meetings, Jacks is the most prolific run-scorer between these teams. His strike rate of 156.4 and projected 23.7 runs show he can accelerate against any attack. On a bowler-friendly pitch, his ability to find the boundary will be crucial.
Richard Gleeson (MI London)
The fast bowler has been sensational. In his opening match, Gleeson took 4 wickets – the joint-highest wicket-taker in The Hundred so far. His economy of 11.09 and projected 1.61 wickets per match on a pitch that favours seam bowling make him a nightmare for Brave’s batters. He is the Purple Cap leader and a genuine match-winner.
David Miller (Southern Brave)
Brave’s most experienced batter. Miller has 53 runs from two matches with a high score of 44, showing some form despite the team’s struggles. His projected 26.5 runs per match and ability to accelerate in the middle order make him Brave’s best hope of building a competitive total. He must deliver if Brave are to avoid a third straight defeat.
Conditions
Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Southampton with temperatures around 20 degrees at the start. Humidity sits at 65%, and there is a light breeze of 4.8 km/h from the south-west. No rain is expected. Conditions should be comfortable for cricket, though the cloud cover may assist the seam bowlers early on.
Verdict and Betting Angles
This is a mismatch on paper. MI London are top of the table with a +3.136 net run rate and have won 5 of 6 meetings against Brave. The Statz projections give MI London a 57.7% win probability if Brave bat first and 48.1% if they bat second – a clear edge in both scenarios. Brave, meanwhile, are bottom with zero points and have lost their last two matches by a combined margin of 12 runs.
The bookmakers reflect this gulf. Indicative odds have MI London at around 1.50 and Southern Brave at 2.50 – a significant favourite-longshot split.
I am leaning MI London. The data is overwhelming – superior form, superior head-to-head record, superior projections, and a bowling attack led by Richard Gleeson that is suffocating opposition on a bowler-friendly pitch. Brave need to find runs and wickets fast, but there is nothing in their recent performances to suggest they can turn this around against the table-toppers.
Bet Builder Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture:
- Sam Curran 20+ runs – The MI London all-rounder has scored 60 in his opening match and projects for 27.5 runs. A strong backing for a player in form.
- Richard Gleeson 1+ wicket – The Purple Cap leader took 4 wickets in his opening match. On a bowler-friendly pitch against a struggling batting order, he is almost certain to take at least one.
- Will Jacks 20+ runs – The most prolific batter in this fixture with 204 career runs and 16 sixes. His strike rate of 156.4 makes him a reliable source of runs.
- Match total under 260 – The Rose Bowl average is 260 runs. Both teams project to score around 134-137 in the first innings. Expect a low-scoring affair.