Southern Brave vs Birmingham Phoenix Prediction, Projections & Preview

28th July 2026

Southern Brave host Birmingham Phoenix at The Rose Bowl on Thursday for the 13th match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 17:30 BST on 30 July.

This is a crucial fixture for both sides. Southern Brave sit 7th in the table on 0 points from 3 matches – winless so far and under real pressure to get off the mark. Birmingham Phoenix are 6th on 4 points from 2 matches, having won one and lost one. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Southern Brave vs Birmingham Phoenix fixture page on Statz.

The Venue

The Rose Bowl has hosted 10 Hundred matches this season, producing an average match total of 258.9 runs – a bowler-friendly pitch that suppresses scoring. The average first-innings total is 142.3, with seam bowlers dominating at 71.8% of wickets taken. Spinners account for 18.8% of dismissals at an economy rate of 9.99, while seamers operate at 9.85.

Boundaries are a key feature here: 52.1% of runs come from fours and sixes, with an average of 7.2 sixes per match. The top scorer position (opener) has been the most productive batting slot. Southern Brave’s home record at The Rose Bowl since 2021 reads W13 L8 NR1 from 22 matches, averaging 16.7 runs per over. Birmingham Phoenix have visited just 3 times away from home, losing all three (W0 L3), averaging 14.5 runs per over.

Form and Table

Southern Brave – 7th (P3 W0 L3, 0 pts)

Southern Brave are in deep trouble. Three matches, three defeats, and zero points on the board. Their recent form reads:

The margins have been tight – they lost to MI London with just one wicket in hand and fell short by 5 runs to Sunrisers Leeds – but results are what matter in The Hundred, and Brave have none. Their net run rate sits at -0.241.

Birmingham Phoenix – 6th (P2 W1 L1, 4 pts)

Phoenix have one win and one loss from their opening two matches:

They showed they can score heavily (214/4 against Rockets) but also that they can collapse (100 all out against Super Giants). A mixed start, but at least they are on the board.

Standings Snapshot

Manchester Super Giants lead on 8 points (W2), followed by MI London and Welsh Fire on 8 points each. Trent Rockets and Sunrisers Leeds sit on 4 points. Birmingham Phoenix are 6th on 4 points, while Southern Brave are bottom on 0 points. Both sides have 6 group matches remaining.

Head-to-Head

Birmingham Phoenix hold a commanding record over Southern Brave. In 7 meetings, Phoenix have won 6 to Brave’s 1. The last five results all favour Phoenix: W, W, W, W, L. The most recent clash saw Phoenix win, and Brave’s sole victory came some time ago. This is a fixture that has run heavily in Phoenix’s favour.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections make this a genuine coin-flip, with Southern Brave holding a marginal edge at home.

If Southern Brave bat first: Projected first-innings total of 135.5, match total of 262.3. Win probability – SB 44.8%, BP 48.7%, tie/NR 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 113 to 158.

If Birmingham Phoenix bat first: Projected first-innings total of 135.9, match total of 262.5. Win probability – SB 51.3%, BP 42.2%, tie/NR 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 114 to 157.

The projected match totals of 262-263 sit well below the venue average of 258.9 – the model expects a tight, low-scoring contest. Notably, Brave gain a 9-point win probability advantage if they bowl first (51.3% vs 42.2%), suggesting the toss will be pivotal. Match total P10-P90 range: 220 to 304.

Predicted XIs

Southern Brave (based on XI vs MI London, 27 Jul 2026)

  1. Jamie Smith (wk)
  2. Ben McKinney
  3. Marcus Stoinis
  4. David Miller
  5. Nikhil Chaudhary
  6. Tristan Stubbs
  7. Chris Jordan (c)
  8. Jofra Archer
  9. Saif Zaib
  10. Adil Rashid
  11. Luke Wood

Birmingham Phoenix (based on XI vs Trent Rockets, 24 Jul 2026)

  1. Joe Clarke (wk)
  2. Will Smeed
  3. Rehan Ahmed
  4. Laurie Evans
  5. Donovan Ferreira (c)
  6. Mitchell Owen
  7. Sean Dickson
  8. Ben Dwarshuis
  9. Scott Currie
  10. Saqib Mahmood
  11. Usman Tariq

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Captain: Ben Dwarshuis (BP) – projected 86.7 Dream11 points. The Australian quick is the standout fantasy asset in this fixture. Projected for 12.2 runs and 1.37 wickets, Dwarshuis combines batting aggression with genuine bowling threat. His strike rate of 176 and economy of 9.53 make him a dual-threat captain pick.

Vice Captain: Marcus Stoinis (SB) – projected 82.5 Dream11 points. The all-rounder is Brave’s most reliable fantasy asset. Projected for 15.4 runs at a strike rate of 140.8 plus 1.25 wickets, Stoinis delivers value across all three disciplines. His 4 wickets this season show genuine bowling impact.

Also consider:

Key Players

Jamie Smith (Southern Brave)

Brave’s wicketkeeper-batter has been their standout performer this season. With 82 runs from 3 matches at an average of 27.33 and a high score of 49, Smith has shown the ability to build an innings. His 66.7% hit rate for 20+ runs and 30+ runs demonstrates consistency in a struggling side. Projected for 26.1 runs in this fixture, Smith is Brave’s best hope of anchoring an innings.

Tristan Stubbs (Southern Brave)

The South African batter has also impressed for Brave. With 85 runs from 3 matches at 28.33 average and a high score of 43, Stubbs has been a bright spot in a dark campaign. His 66.7% hit rate for both 20+ and 30+ runs shows he can deliver when it matters. Projected for 19.9 runs, he is another key middle-order asset.

Joe Clarke (Birmingham Phoenix)

Phoenix’s opener has made a strong start to the tournament. With 88 runs from 2 matches at an average of 44 and a high score of 68, Clarke has shown he can take on the bowling from ball one. His aggressive approach and high strike rate make him a genuine threat at the top of the order.

Rehan Ahmed (Birmingham Phoenix)

The all-rounder has been Phoenix’s most consistent performer. With 48 runs from 2 matches at 24 average and 2 wickets, Ahmed provides balance. His leg-spin and lower-order hitting give Phoenix flexibility, and his projected 14 runs plus 0.84 wickets make him a valuable fantasy asset.

Who will win Southern Brave vs Birmingham Phoenix?

Southern Brave are favoured at 48.1% win probability, with Birmingham Phoenix at 45.5%. This is a coin-flip contest, but Brave’s home advantage and the toss edge (51.3% if they bowl first) give them a marginal lean. However, Phoenix’s superior head-to-head record (6-1) and their ability to score heavily (214/4 vs Rockets) cannot be ignored.

The key will be the toss. If Brave win it and bowl first, they move to 51.3% favourites. If Phoenix win the toss and bat, they shift to 48.7% – a significant swing. The projected match total of 262-263 suggests a tight, low-scoring affair where bowling and fielding will be paramount.

Brave are desperate for a win after three straight defeats, and they know The Rose Bowl intimately. Phoenix have shown they can win away (214/4) but also collapse (100 all out). The form suggests Brave should win, but the head-to-head favours Phoenix. Back Brave to finally get off the mark at home.

Toss Prediction

The toss is critical in this fixture. Southern Brave gain a 9-point win probability advantage if they bowl first (51.3% vs 42.2%), while Birmingham Phoenix prefer to bat first (48.7% vs 42.2%). The bowler-friendly pitch at The Rose Bowl means chasing will be difficult – expect the winning captain to bowl first and put pressure on the opposition early.

Best Bets and Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time odds and hit rates on this fixture:

Southern Brave vs Birmingham Phoenix prediction FAQ

Q: Who will win Southern Brave vs Birmingham Phoenix?

A: Southern Brave are favoured at 48.1% win probability, with Birmingham Phoenix at 45.5%. This is a coin-flip contest, but Brave’s home advantage and toss edge give them a marginal lean. However, Phoenix’s 6-1 head-to-head record and ability to score heavily (214/4) make them a genuine threat.

Q: What is the projected match total?

A: The Statz model projects a match total of 262-263 runs, well below the venue average of 258.9. This suggests a tight, low-scoring contest where bowling and fielding will dominate. The P10-P90 range is 220 to 304 runs.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?

A: The toss is pivotal. Southern Brave gain a 9-point win probability advantage if they bowl first (51.3% vs 42.2%), while Birmingham Phoenix prefer to bat first (48.7% vs 42.2%). Expect the winning captain to bowl first on this bowler-friendly pitch.

Q: Is Southern Brave a good bet?

A: Brave are desperate for a win after three straight defeats and know The Rose Bowl intimately. At 48.1% win probability, they offer value given their home advantage and toss edge. However, Phoenix’s superior head-to-head record (6-1) and proven ability to score heavily (214/4) mean nothing is guaranteed in this tight contest.