Real Madrid vs Dortmund Betting Tips: Club World Cup 2025 Quarter Final Preview
5th July 2025
The final quarter-final of the FIFA Club World Cup sees Spanish giants Real Madrid take on Germany’s Borussia Dortmund in New Jersey, with kick-off set for 9pm BST. Both sides appear to be growing into the tournament, and this clash comes with added significance given the strength of the bracket—PSG or Bayern await in the semi-finals, meaning the eventual winner could well come from this side of the draw. Real Madrid are boosted by the return of Kylian Mbappé, who has recovered from illness and is expected to feature from the start. Dortmund, on the other hand, will be without the suspended Jobe Bellingham, denying fans the headline moment of a Bellingham vs Bellingham showdown. Statz.ai projects a narrow 2-1 victory for Real Madrid, hinting at a tight contest likely to be decided by fine margins.
Madrid Strong Favourites To Progress But…
Real Madrid enter this tie as odds-on favourites, and that dominance is reflected in the goalscorer markets. Kylian Mbappé is priced at 4/6 to score (Bet365), but after a sluggish return as a second-half substitute against Juventus, that line offers limited appeal.
A more interesting angle lies with Real right-back Fran García, who has emerged as a defensive workhorse in recent matches. He’s averaging 3.5 tackles per game in this tournament and continues to project well in that market.
At the other end, Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy has been a constant presence in front of goal. The Guinean forward ranks third in the tournament in xG (3.8), second in shots per game (4.2), first for shots on target (2.5), and also leads the tournament in big chances missed (7). Priced at 7/4 (Bet365) to score, Guirassy sits just behind Mbappé in the projections but represents far better value based on underlying numbers.
Betting Tips and Key Angles
Projected Scoreline (Statz.ai): Real Madrid 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
Top Player Projections
- Serhou Guirassy: 0.67 Goals/ 1.29 Shots on target/ 3.24 Shots/0.83 Fouls committed/ 0.38 Yellows
- Jude Bellingham: 0.25 Goals/ 0.3 Assists/ 0.7 Shots on target/1.31 Fouls committed/ 2.06 Tackles/ 0.42 Yellows
- Nmecha: 1.79 Tackles/ 0.31 Yellows/ 0.96 Fouls committed/ 0.92 Shots
Booking Watch
Brazilian referee Ramon Abatti will officiate his first match of the tournament, coming in with a domestic average of just over four yellow cards per game this season. Projections for this clash suggest a similar outcome—around four cards total, likely split evenly, though Dortmund are slightly more likely to come out on the wrong end of the referee’s notebook.
With no Jude Bellingham reunion in this fixture, it’s his brother, Real Madrid’s Jobe Bellingham, who tops the individual card projections alongside Dortmund striker Serhou Guirassy. The Guinean forward has been booked more than any other Dortmund player across the club’s last 30 matches, making him a strong candidate in the player card market.
Booking Odds
- Serhou Guirassy: 4/1 (Bet 365)
- Jude Bellingham: 9/2 (Bet 365)
- Double 25/1 (Bet 365)
- Guriassy goal and booking – double 12/1 (Bet365)
- Jude Bellingham goal and booking – double 12/1 (Bet365)
Final Word
Real seem likely to progress but the Germans won’t go down without a fight as a competitive game is guaranteed and star striker Guriassy will be involved in some way in the game so including him in some bet builder action looks a good play.