PSG v Tottenham: Statz Preview + Predictions

26th November 2025

Tottenham’s 1-4 thrashing at the hands of Arsenal on Sunday was nothing short of a footballing disaster.

Thomas Frank will be hoping his side bounce back on Wednesday (20:00 GMT), although life doesn’t get any easier as Spurs are now forced to take on the defending Champions League kings, PSG.

Can Tottenham get anything from their trip to the Parc des Princes?

PSG vs Tottenham Preview

Since early October, Tottenham have only beaten Everton and FC Copenhagen.

Their Champions League credentials reveal a draw at Bodo-Glimt, a 0-0 draw with beleaguered Monaco, a narrow victory over Villarreal and that win over the Danes, so the feeling is that Frank hasn’t quite got a handle on the UCL in his debut campaign.

PSG know this tournament inside and out of course, and in the space of four games in 2025/26 they’ve beaten Barcelona and thrashed Atalanta and Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 and 7-2.

Not the kind of trip you need when you’re out of form, then.

PSG vs Spurs: Statz Projections

The projections from the Statz model are clear: PSG should win this game comfortably.

The Frenchman are 4/11 with the bookmakers so their perceived supremacy is no surprise, but this could be another tough night for Tottenham on their travels.

We’re expecting PSG to win the shot count at around 16-8, which suggests that they will dominate proceedings, while our projection for a mammoth amount of tackles will lead our betting picks for this fixture.

PSG v Tottenham Betting Tips

Both of these teams like to put a tackle in, with the high intensity press – in a bid to win the ball back early – very much the mantra of PSG boss Luis Enrique.

Our projection of 39 tackles in the game certainly looks high, but it provides punters with plenty of ammunition to attack a fixture in which the bookmakers’ match winner prices look to be spot on.

What’s interesting in the betting markets is that PSG are a shorter price to hit Over 18.5 Tackles than Spurs, but as you can see from the screenshot above – and the context that we expect them to be doing more defending – Tottenham are the value at even money.

We’ve modelled 4.82 Tottenham corners in this game, which we consider to be an advantage bet given the current odds of 11/10 about Spurs to win four or more corners.

PSG v Tottenham Bet Builder

Our projections suggest that PSG could have 16 or more shots in this game, which is an angle we want to explore with a bet builder coupon.

The model is sweet on both Ousmane Dembele and Goncalo Ramos in the shots on target category, but it’s highly doubtful both will start – Dembele is still finding his way back from injury.

Instead, we hope that both Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Bradley Barcola can record an SOT from projections of 0.98 and 0.92.

It’s a bet that would have landed in 80% of Kvaratskhelia’s last five starts and 60% of Barcola’s. And you can back it with a single click at bet365 below:

·   Kvaratskhelia & Barcola 1+ Shot on Target each (20/23) – GET IT HERE