Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Preview – IPL 2026

29th March 2026

Rajasthan Royals take on Chennai Super Kings at Barsapara Cricket Stadium in Guwahati on Monday (2pm local), in what’s shaping up as one of the standout fixtures of the IPL 2026 opening weeks. Both sides have revamped squads – RR have picked up Ravindra Jadeja from their rivals this winter, while CSK snapped up Sanju Samson. There’s plenty of new storylines here even before a ball is bowled.

This is a fixture with serious history. 20 H2H meetings since 2013, and RR edge it 11-9. Over the last five meetings, RR won four – including both clashes in IPL 2025. This is the opening fixture for both sides in IPL 2026, so there’s no current season form to lean on – H2H and squad quality is what we’ve got.

Venue – Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati

The Barsapara Cricket Stadium averages 185.6 in the first innings – solid, above T20 par. Bat first win rate sits at exactly 50%, so no obvious toss advantage here. Spin economy is noticeably better than seam (8.55 vs 9.95) – a surface that rewards clever slow bowling.

RR’s record here is 2-3 from five visits, with Riyan Parag the standout Barsapara performer – 137 runs at this ground. CSK have only played here once and lost, with Ruturaj Gaikwad top-scoring with 63.

Form and H2H

No IPL 2026 form for either side – this is the season opener for both. H2H across 20 meetings: RR 11, CSK 9. Last five: RR won four. Most recent meeting (May 2025) – RR chased 188 with 17.1 overs to spare. March 2025 at this very ground – RR posted 182/9 and held CSK to 176/6. Rajasthan own this fixture right now.

Statz Projections

The Statz model makes this a comfortable RR call: RR 70%, CSK 28%, with a 97% confidence rating. Projected match total is 315, closely in line with the ground average of 317 – expect a competitive but not outrageous scoring contest.

The standout Dream11 captain pick from the Statz projections is Ayush Mhatre (CSK) – the highest projected D11 score in this fixture at 104.9, driven by his ability to contribute both with bat and ball. On the RR side, Vaibhav Suryavanshi tops the D11 chart at 84.2.

For the full player-by-player breakdown, head to the Statz Cricket projections tab (PRO).

Predicted Lineups

This is the first IPL 2026 match for both sides – confirmed XIs will be known after the toss. Based on 2026 squad selections:

Rajasthan Royals likely XI: Yashasvi Jaiswal, Vaibhav Suryavanshi, Riyan Parag, Dhruv Jurel (wk), Shimron Hetmyer, Ravindra Jadeja, Kwena Maphaka, Yudhvir Charak, Tushar Deshpande + from: Jofra Archer, Ravi Bishnoi, Shubham Dubey

Chennai Super Kings likely XI: Ruturaj Gaikwad (c), Ayush Mhatre, Sanju Samson, Dewald Brevis, Shivam Dube, MS Dhoni (wk), Noor Ahmad, Anshul Kamboj, Khaleel Ahmed + from: Matt Henry, Jamie Overton, Urvil Patel

Squads sourced from Statz Cricket data. Confirmed XIs will be known after the toss.

Key Players to Watch

Yashasvi Jaiswal is RR’s most prolific active batter in this H2H fixture with 266 runs. A Barsapara surface that suits attacking openers plays right into his hands.

Riyan Parag is the ground specialist – 137 runs at Barsapara, the highest of any player from either squad at this venue. The model has him as RR’s top D11 pick at 83.3, reinforcing the data.

Ravindra Jadeja brings 240 H2H runs in this fixture from previous seasons – and now he’s doing it in RR colours after his high-profile move. On a spin-friendly surface (8.55 economy), his all-round value is significant.

Ayush Mhatre is the match’s standout Dream11 projection (104.9 D11) – an attacking CSK opener who can contribute with the ball too. If CSK are going to pull off an upset, he’s likely to be central to it.

Verdict

RR are the clear call. The model backs them at 70%, the H2H record strongly favours them, and this venue has been good for them before. CSK have exciting new additions in Samson and a revamped squad, but on the data available, Rajasthan should open their 2026 campaign with a win.

RR to win.

Bet Builder Angles

Check the Statz Cricket Bet Builder for live player prop hit rates. Key angles:

All stats and projections from Statz Cricket. See all upcoming IPL 2026 fixtures.