3M Open 2026 Betting Preview – Three Picks for TPC Twin Cities

21st July 2026

Kurt Kitayama lit up TPC Twin Cities last year with a wire-to-wire -23 demolition. He returns as defending champion to a course that suits his game perfectly – and the Statz model has him top of the pile again. Here is everything you need to know about the 3M Open 2026, plus three picks and a longshot for Thursday’s opening round.

The Course: TPC Twin Cities

TPC Twin Cities is an Arnold Palmer design sitting at 7,431 yards, par 71, on bentgrass surfaces in Blaine, Minnesota. The greens roll true and consistent – this is not a course where bumpy afternoon surfaces throw up surprises. You need to putt well and hit your irons close.

The Top 10 Trends on Statz confirm it. Over the last seven editions, top-10 finishers average +0.98 SG Putting and +0.93 SG Approach per round. Those two categories dominate. Off the tee matters but only at +0.57, while around the green is almost negligible at +0.23. This is a flat-stick and iron course, full stop.

Winning scores back that up. Lee Hodges posted -24 in 2023. Kitayama hit -23 last year. The scoring is low when conditions allow it, with the projected winning score this week sitting at -20 and a cut line around -4.

What Does It Take to Win Here?

Putting is king. Five of the last seven editions have seen the biggest SG contribution from the greens, with +1.13 SG Putting from top-10 finishers in both 2023 and 2025. Approach play is the second lever – you need to create birdie chances by hitting greens and getting the ball close. Driving distance helps (top-10 average 305.5 yards) but accuracy at 66.7% suggests you do not need to be arrow-straight off the tee.

Past champions tell the same story. Kitayama, Hodges, Tony Finau – these are complete players who score well when the putter cooperates. No one-dimensional bomber has won here.

Who Is Trending?

Checking Statz Trending, several players in this week’s field are moving sharply in the right direction. Max Homa is gaining +1.55 SG Total over his last 16 rounds, a significant upswing. Keita Nakajima is at +1.49 SG trending. Doug Ghim sits at +1.35 with improving form across all categories. Tom Kim at +1.55 is another name climbing the trending charts, though his form rank at 41 suggests the improvement started from a lower base.

Selection 1: Kurt Kitayama – 22/1 (bet365)

The defending champion, and the Statz model’s number one pick this week. Kitayama holds a 14.2% projected win probability and a 57.5% top-10 chance – comfortably the highest in the field. The model sees a +9.8% edge over the market at 22/1.

His course history is elite. An average finishing position of 3.5 from two appearances at TPC Twin Cities puts him rank one in the field for course form. He won by a shot last year and clearly loves this layout. The bentgrass greens suit his putting stroke and his approach play was razor-sharp here in 2025.

At 22/1 for a defending champion who tops the model, this is the anchor pick.

Selection 2: Max Homa – 45/1 (bet365)

Max Homa sits fifth in the Statz projections with a 5.0% win probability and 38.9% top-10 chance, but the market has him out at 45/1. That is a significant gap. He also ranks sixth on Find Me a Winner with a value score of +64.3.

The key stat here is his trending SG of +1.55, improving sharply over recent events. On a course that demands putting and approach – two areas where Homa has traditionally been strong – this uptick in overall form makes him dangerous. He has three prior appearances at TPC Twin Cities and a course fit grade of C, meaning the layout plays into enough of his strengths to compete.

At 45/1, the each-way value is clear. The model rates him alongside players priced 20 points shorter.

Selection 3: William Mouw – 66/1 (bet365)

William Mouw is the selection with the most upside this week. The Statz model ranks him fourth in the entire field – fourth – with a 6.5% win probability and 42.7% top-10 chance. At 66/1, the market is wildly underpricing him.

He sits third on Find Me a Winner with a value score of +71.6, combining strong form (rank 10), solid course history (rank 2 from one appearance, average finishing position 7.0), and improving SG trending at +0.95. His one prior visit to TPC Twin Cities produced a seventh-place finish, which is exactly the kind of course evidence you want to see.

The model has him projected to finish at -18. Only Kitayama, Scheffler, and Jake Knapp rank higher. At this price, he is arguably the best value in the field.

Longshot: Matt Kuchar – 150/1 (bet365)

The old hand who refuses to slow down. Kuchar is 47 years old and priced at 150/1, but the numbers suggest the market is sleeping on him. He ranks second on Find Me a Winner with a massive value score of +72.5 and sits eighth in form rank.

The Statz model projects a 1.3% win probability and 19.9% top-10 chance – roughly a one-in-five shot of making the top 10 at 150/1. That is enormous each-way value. He knows TPC Twin Cities from three prior appearances (course rank 32) and his trending SG of +0.86 is moving in the right direction.

Kuchar’s game has always been built on precision iron play and smart course management – exactly what TPC Twin Cities rewards. At this price, he is worth a speculative each-way punt.

Summary

Each-way terms: 1/4 odds, 5 places (bet365).