Nottinghamshire vs Surrey Preview – T20 Blast 2026 | Statz

13th July 2026

Nottinghamshire host Surrey at Trent Bridge on Tuesday for a T20 Blast clash with both sides eyeing a push towards the knockout stages. First ball is at 15:30 BST on 15 July.

Notts sit 3rd in the table on 32 points from 12 matches, level with Hampshire and two points clear of Yorkshire. Surrey are 6th on 28 points (W7 L5), level with Somerset, Essex and Gloucestershire – a tight mid-table battle where every win matters. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Nottinghamshire vs Surrey fixture page on Statz.

The Venue

Trent Bridge continues to be a run-fest in T20 cricket. Across the last 31 T20 matches here, the average match total stands at 322 and the average first-innings score is 161.8. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz, with seam bowlers taking 53% of wickets at an economy of 8.79, while spinners have been more economical at 7.65 but account for 43.9% of dismissals.

Nottinghamshire’s home record at Trent Bridge since 2021 is formidable – 17 wins from 34 T20s with an average score of 17.9 per over. The ground favours openers, with top-order batters consistently dominating the scoring. Boundaries account for 57.2% of all runs, with an average of 12.1 sixes per match – a venue where aggressive cricket is rewarded.

Form and Table

Nottinghamshire – 3rd (P12 W8 L4, 32 pts)

Notts have been consistent throughout the group stage. They sit in the top three and remain well-positioned for qualification, though recent form has been mixed:

Surrey – 6th (P12 W7 L5, 28 pts)

Surrey have been inconsistent away from home but showed promise with a dominant win over Essex before slipping up at the same venue. Their recent record reads:

Standings Snapshot

Nottinghamshire’s home advantage is significant – they have won 17 of their last 34 T20s at Trent Bridge since 2021. Surrey, meanwhile, have struggled away from The Oval, winning just 0 of their matches at this venue in the data available. The top three (Northamptonshire 36 pts, Hampshire 32 pts, Nottinghamshire 32 pts) are pulling clear, and Notts know a win here keeps them in contention for a top-two finish.

Head-to-Head

This is a first meeting between these sides in the 2026 T20 Blast group stage. The full H2H stats and projections are available on Statz, but with no recent history in this competition, both teams will be approaching this as a fresh contest. Surrey’s away form has been a concern, and Trent Bridge is a venue where they have not yet tasted success this season.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections favour Surrey slightly despite their away struggles.

If Nottinghamshire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 160.4, match total of 311.2. Win probability – NOT 43.7%, SUR 54.3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 135 to 186.

If Surrey bat first: Projected first-innings total of 162.1, match total of 312.8. Win probability – NOT 48.4%, SUR 49.6%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 138 to 187.

Both projected match totals sit below the Trent Bridge average of 322, suggesting the model rates both bowling attacks highly. The projected first-innings totals of around 161 are also below the venue average of 161.8 – expect a competitive contest where bowling discipline will be key. Match total P10-P90 range: 262 to 349.

Season Leaders

Nottinghamshire Top Performers

Runs: George Munsey – 477 runs, avg 39.75, HS 88 | Jack Haynes – 301 runs, avg 25.08, HS 50 | Tom Moores – 295 runs, avg 24.58, HS 75

Wickets: Mohammad Ali – 19 wickets, avg 1.9 | George Linde – 15 wickets, avg 1.36 | Liam Patterson-White – 12 wickets, avg 1.5

Surrey Top Performers

Runs: Jason Roy – 397 runs, avg 33.08, HS 103 | Daniel Lawrence – 237 runs, avg 19.75, HS 94 | Ollie Pope – 215 runs, avg 17.92, HS 59

Wickets: Reece Topley – 19 wickets, avg 1.58 | Tom Lawes – 11 wickets, avg 1.57 | Jordan Clark – 9 wickets, avg 0.9

Predicted XIs

Nottinghamshire (based on XI vs Yorkshire, 12 Jul 2026)

  1. Joe Clarke (c)
  2. George Munsey
  3. Jack Haynes
  4. Freddie McCann
  5. Tom Moores (wk)
  6. George Linde
  7. Benny Howell
  8. Liam Patterson-White
  9. Olly Stone
  10. Binura Fernando
  11. Dillon Pennington

Surrey (based on XI vs Essex, 12 Jul 2026)

  1. Jason Roy
  2. Laurie Evans
  3. Josh Philippe (wk)
  4. Daniel Lawrence
  5. Ollie Pope (c)
  6. Tom Curran
  7. Jordan Clark
  8. Tom Lawes
  9. Sean Abbott
  10. Chris Jordan
  11. Reece Topley

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Key Players

George Munsey (Nottinghamshire)

The Scottish opener has been Nottinghamshire’s standout performer with 477 runs at an average of 39.75 and a high score of 88. Munsey has scored 20+ runs in 66.7% of his matches this season and 30+ runs in 50% – a player in excellent form who sets the tone for Notts’ innings. His last three scores of 1, 8 and 9 suggest a rare dip in form, making this an ideal opportunity to find his rhythm again at home.

Jason Roy (Surrey)

Surrey’s captain and leading run-scorer with 397 runs at 33.08 and a high score of 103. Roy has scored 20+ runs in 50% of his matches and 30+ runs in the same percentage – a proven match-winner at the top of the order. His last three scores of 103, 50 and 13 show the volatility of T20 cricket, but his experience and class make him a constant threat.

Mohammad Ali (Nottinghamshire)

The competition’s joint second-highest wicket-taker with 19 wickets in 12 matches. Mohammad Ali has taken at least one wicket in 100% of his matches this season – a remarkable consistency record. He has taken 2+ wickets in 60% of matches, making him one of the most reliable bowling assets in the tournament.

Reece Topley (Surrey)

Surrey’s leading wicket-taker with 19 wickets at an average of 1.58. Topley has taken 1+ wicket in 91.7% of his matches this season and 2+ wickets in 50% – a world-class seamer who can dismantle batting lineups. His left-arm pace and movement make him particularly dangerous on a Balanced pitch like Trent Bridge.

Conditions

Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Trent Bridge with temperatures around 22 degrees at the start and humidity at 42%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 4.8 km/h from the south-west – ideal conditions for cricket throughout the afternoon and early evening.

Verdict and Betting Angles

This is a coin-flip contest on paper. The Statz projections make Surrey slight favourites at 52% win probability, but Nottinghamshire’s home advantage and superior form (8 wins from 12 vs Surrey’s 7 from 12) cannot be ignored. Notts have won 17 of their last 34 T20s at Trent Bridge – a compelling statistic for a side desperate to maintain their top-three position.

I am leaning Surrey here despite their away struggles. The projections favour them, and their bowling attack – led by Reece Topley and supported by Tom Lawes and Chris Jordan – has the quality to trouble Nottinghamshire’s batting order. Jason Roy and Ollie Pope provide the batting firepower to chase down any total on this ground.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture: