Notts vs Derbyshire Preview – T20 Blast 2026 | Statz

5th June 2026

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Nottinghamshire host Derbyshire at Trent Bridge in the T20 Blast 2026 on Saturday 7 June. Both sides need results – Notts sit 15th with just one win from four matches, while Derbyshire are 7th with two wins from five. First ball is at 19:30 IST (15:00 BST), and with qualification places up for grabs, neither side can afford another slip.

The Venue – Trent Bridge

Trent Bridge is a ground that produces runs. Across 27 T20s since May 2022, the average first innings score is 175.8 and the average match total sits at 335. Teams batting first have won 48% of matches here – essentially a coin flip. Pace bowlers go at 9.35 runs per over, while spin is more economical at 8.01. The pitch is tagged as a balanced pitch, though the numbers lean towards batters. The most recent T20 here (31 May 2026) saw Durham post 156/8 before Nottinghamshire chased it down with 157/4 in 17.2 overs – a comfortable six-wicket win for the hosts. The highest total recorded is 261, and the lowest is 57, showing this ground can produce wildly different games.

Form and Table

Nottinghamshire – 15th, P4 W1 L3, 4 pts

It has been a rough start. Three losses from four, with the sole win coming most recently against Durham at home. The last five results:

Derbyshire – 7th, P5 W2 L3, 8 pts

Two wins from five gives Derbyshire a mid-table position. They beat Nottinghamshire convincingly in the reverse fixture but have lost their last match to Essex. The last five:

T20 Blast 2026 – Top 4

Pos Team P W L Pts
1 Sussex 4 4 0 16
2 Gloucestershire 5 4 1 16
3 Kent 4 3 1 12
4 Hampshire 5 3 2 12

With 14 group matches per side, both teams have plenty of cricket remaining. Nottinghamshire need to string results together quickly from 15th, while Derbyshire in 7th are within touching distance of the top four.

Head-to-Head

These two have met 9 times since 2022 (Statz data). Nottinghamshire lead 6-3 overall, but the recent trend favours Derbyshire, who have won two of the last three meetings. The most recent clash on 29 May 2026 at County Ground saw Derbyshire pile up 234/4 before restricting Notts to 211/6 – a comfortable 23-run win.

At Trent Bridge specifically, Nottinghamshire have a strong record with 13 wins from 30 T20s at this ground (since 2021). Derbyshire have managed just 1 win from 4 visits here.

Statz Projections

In the batting-first scenario where Nottinghamshire bat first, the Statz model gives Notts a 49.7% win probability against Derbyshire’s 48.3% (2% tie/no result). The projected first innings total is 162.4, with the match total projected at 313.

The P10-P90 range for the first innings is 138-187, and for the match total it is 270-352. That projected first innings of 162.4 sits below the Trent Bridge ground average of 175.8, suggesting the model is factoring in both teams’ inconsistent form rather than just venue history.

If Derbyshire bat first, Nottinghamshire’s win probability rises to 53.8%, with Derbyshire projected to post 160.1 in the first innings.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap – Top 5 Run Scorers

  1. Martin Andersson (DER) – 237 runs in 5 innings (24 fours, 9 sixes)
  2. Chris Lynn (SUS) – 207 runs in 4 innings (23 fours, 10 sixes)
  3. Matthew Montgomery (DER) – 199 runs in 5 innings (24 fours, 6 sixes)
  4. Aneurin Donald (DER) – 182 runs in 5 innings (19 fours, 14 sixes)
  5. Tom Banton (SOM) – 175 runs in 4 innings (21 fours, 9 sixes)

Three Derbyshire batters in the top five is a statement. Their batting lineup has been the standout in this competition so far.

Purple Cap – Top 5 Wicket Takers

  1. James Sales (SUS) – 11 wickets in 4 innings
  2. Scott Currie (GLO) – 10 wickets in 5 innings
  3. Duan Jansen (KEN) – 10 wickets in 4 innings
  4. Matty Potts (DUR) – 9 wickets in 4 innings
  5. Jack Morley (DER) – 9 wickets in 5 innings

Nottinghamshire Season Leaders

Runs: George Munsey – 171 runs in 4 matches (avg 42.75, HS 88) | Tom Moores – 109 runs in 4 matches (avg 27.25, HS 75) | Jack Haynes – 89 runs in 4 matches (avg 22.25, HS 45)

Wickets: Mohammad Ali – 6 wickets in 4 matches (avg 1.50 per match, best 2) | George Linde – 5 wickets in 3 matches (avg 1.67 per match, best 2)

Derbyshire Season Leaders

Runs: Martin Andersson – 237 runs in 5 matches (avg 47.40, HS 81) | Matthew Montgomery – 199 runs in 5 matches (avg 39.80, HS 75) | Aneurin Donald – 182 runs in 5 matches (avg 36.40, HS 84)

Wickets: Jack Morley – 9 wickets in 5 matches (avg 1.80 per match, best 4) | Martin Andersson – 8 wickets in 5 matches (avg 1.60 per match, best 6) | Ben Aitchison – 7 wickets in 5 matches (avg 1.40 per match, best 2)

Predicted XIs

Based on the most recent match on 31 May 2026.

Nottinghamshire (based on XI vs Durham, 31 May 2026)

  1. George Munsey
  2. Joe Clarke (c)
  3. Jack Haynes
  4. Tom Moores (wk)
  5. George Linde
  6. Benny Howell
  7. Freddie McCann
  8. Joe Pocklington
  9. Olly Stone
  10. Dillon Pennington
  11. Mohammad Ali

Derbyshire (based on XI vs Essex, 31 May 2026)

  1. Aneurin Donald (c/wk)
  2. Martin Andersson
  3. Caleb Jewell
  4. Wayne Madsen
  5. Ross Whiteley
  6. Matthew Montgomery
  7. Amrit Basra
  8. Nick Potts
  9. Ben Aitchison
  10. Akif Javed
  11. Jack Morley

Note: XIs are based on the most recently selected team. Check the Statz fixture page for confirmed lineups after the toss.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Based on projected Dream11 points across both scenarios (players in recent XI only):

Captain: Martin Andersson (DER) – 163.1 projected points. The all-rounder is projected for 46.4 runs and 1.54 wickets across scenarios. He leads the competition run charts with 237 runs and has taken 8 wickets this season – genuine dual-threat value.

Vice Captain: Aneurin Donald (DER) – 154.4 projected points. The Derbyshire skipper is projected for 64.6 runs across scenarios and has 182 runs in 5 innings this season with 14 sixes – he can take games away from opposition.

Other picks to consider:

Key Players

Martin Andersson (Derbyshire)

The competition’s leading run scorer with 237 runs at 47.40, and he has chipped in with 8 wickets too. His 20+ run hit rate this season is 60%, and his 1+ wicket hit rate is also 60%. That all-round consistency makes him the most dangerous player in this fixture. Scores of 57, 69, and 12 in his last three innings show he converts starts regularly.

George Munsey (Nottinghamshire)

Notts’ top scorer with 171 runs at 42.75. His 20+ run hit rate this season is 75% – the highest of any Nottinghamshire batter. Last three scores of 37, 18, and 88 show explosive potential. If Notts are going to compete, Munsey setting the tone in the powerplay is essential.

Jack Morley (Derbyshire)

Joint-fifth in the Purple Cap race with 9 wickets in 5 innings. His 1+ wicket hit rate is 80% this season, making him one of the most reliable wicket-taking options. At a ground where spin goes at 8.01 economy, Morley should find conditions to his liking.

George Linde (Nottinghamshire)

The South African all-rounder has 50 runs and 5 wickets in just 3 matches. His 2+ wicket hit rate of 66.7% is the highest in the fixture, and he is projected for 145.9 Dream11 points across scenarios. His left-arm spin adds variety to the Notts attack at a venue where spin has been economical.

Conditions

Cloudy skies expected at Trent Bridge with the temperature around 20 degrees, humidity at 53%, and wind at 7.5 km/h from the southwest. No rain forecast – a full 40 overs should be played.

Verdict and Betting Angles

Derbyshire are the stronger side on current form and depth. Three of the competition’s top five run scorers play for them, their bowling attack has more variety with Morley’s spin and Andersson’s all-round contribution, and they beat Notts by 23 runs in the reverse fixture just over a week ago. Nottinghamshire’s solitary win came against Durham at home, and their batting beyond Munsey has been inconsistent.

The Statz model has this as a genuine 50-50 in the batting-first scenario (49.7% Notts, 48.3% Derbyshire), but Derbyshire’s form and superior batting depth gives them the edge.

Odds are not yet available for this fixture. Check back closer to match day for live bet365 prices.

Bet Builder Angles

Build your own selections on the Statz Bet Builder: