Newcastle United v Man City: Predictions, Betting Tips & Statz Preview

21st November 2025

The Saturday teatime kick-off in the Premier League should be a good watch, with Newcastle United welcoming Manchester City to St James’ Park (17:30 GMT).

The Magpies have lost four of their last six Premier League outings, whereas City have won five of their last six – including that 3-0 thrashing of Liverpool prior to the international break.

So will Pep Guardiola’s men head home from Newcastle with all three points?

Newcastle Utd vs Man City: Preview

Games immediately after international fixtures can be a challenge for these two sides, with the bulk of their squads travelling to destinations all over Europe.

The Magpies will also be without the suspended Dan Burn, while Anthony Gordon is an injury doubt as they look to shake a poor run of form. Newcastle have conceded two or more goals in four of their last six EPL games – a situation that Manchester City will be keen to exploit.

They average more than two goals scored per game this term, with the suggestion that Pep will have his full complement of attacking talents to choose from on Saturday.

Newcastle v Manchester City: Statz Projections

Newcastle are a strong side in front of their own supporters, which is why our Projections model suggests they will be competitive against the Cityzens.

We’ve modelled a close encounter here, with proximity between the sides in terms of shots and corners. Ultimately, City’s class in the final third gives them a 1.57-1.16 goal supremacy.

In short, Erling Haaland and co are a fair favourite with the bookmakers, but expect Newcastle to make life difficult for them.

The projection for around 20 fouls will interest punters, while our player-based analysis predicts busy afternoons for Haaland, Rayan Cherki and Harvey Barnes in terms of shots, while Guimaraes, Kieran Trippier, Nico O’Reilly and Nico Gonzalez are amongst those expected to lead the way in tackles, fouls and – potentially – cards.

Newcastle vs Man City Betting Tips & Predictions

There’s not a huge amount of value around with the bookmakers in their traditional markets here; our projections make Man City a narrow favourite in what could be a goal-laden contest… and the odds-makers agree.

But there is value to be had, nonetheless. We’re projecting ten or more match corners, which can be backed at 8/11, while the data forecasts that Newcastle could win five or more corners  – that’s an even meatier 11/10.

·   10+ Match Corners (8/11)

·   Newcastle 5+ Corners (11/10)

Our Bet Builder tool has flagged up something that may be of interest to long shot backers. Ruben Dias has made 90+ passes in two of his last five games – a hit rate of 40%.

The bet365 passing ladder could well deliver value then, as Dias is 13/8 to make 79 or more passes and 10/3 to complete 84+… your level of risk will determine where you get involved.

And finally, here’s a Bet Builder based on Statz’s projections for the game. These picks have landed with a 60% hit rate in the players’ last five outings:

·   Kieran Trippier 2+ Tackles

·   Nico Gonzalez 2+ Tackles

·   Erling Haaland 3+ Shots

·   Bruno Guimaraes – To Be Fouled 2+

·       Combined Bet Builder Odds – 11/4