Manchester Super Giants vs Welsh Fire Prediction, Projections & Preview
3rd August 2026
Manchester Super Giants host Welsh Fire at Old Trafford on Wednesday for the 21st match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 14:00 BST on 5 August.
Manchester sit 5th in the table on 8 points from 5 matches (W2 L3), while Welsh Fire are 3rd on 12 points from 4 matches (W3 L1). This is a crucial mid-tournament clash for both sides – MSG need to arrest a three-match losing run, while Welsh Fire will be looking to cement their position in the top four. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Manchester Super Giants vs Welsh Fire fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss
Old Trafford has been a run-fest this Hundred season. Across the last 10 T20 matches here, the average match total stands at 274.6 with an average first-innings score of 152.4. Seam bowlers have taken 59.7% of wickets at an economy of 10.38, while spinners have been slightly more economical at 10.14 but account for 35.3% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz.
Manchester have won 7 of their 20 home T20 matches at this ground since 2021, with Jos Buttler their standout performer – 636 runs at an average of 45.2 with a high score of 90. Josh Tongue leads the bowling charts with 13 wickets from 13 home matches here.
The toss will be significant. With a projected first-innings total of 147.2 if MSG bat first versus 145.3 if Welsh Fire bat first, the advantage is marginal – but the team batting second will have a slight edge in chasing. Expect the captain winning the toss to bowl first and chase under lights.
Form and Table Position
Manchester Super Giants – 5th (P5 W2 L3, 8 pts)
Manchester have stumbled badly in recent matches. After winning their opening two games against London Spirit and Birmingham Phoenix, they have lost three straight – to Sunrisers Leeds, Trent Rockets and most recently MI London on 2 August (138/10 vs 183/6). The batting has been inconsistent, with only Jos Buttler (226 runs, avg 45.2) providing genuine firepower. They must find form quickly to avoid slipping further down the table.
Welsh Fire – 3rd (P4 W3 L1, 12 pts)
Welsh Fire have been the standout performers in the tournament so far. Three wins from four matches has them sitting comfortably in the top three, and they have the momentum heading into this fixture. Their only loss came to Trent Rockets on 29 July (122/7 vs 126/1), but they bounced back immediately with a win over Birmingham Phoenix on 1 August (138/3 vs 137/9).
Tournament Table
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trent Rockets | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 0.912 |
| 2 | MI London | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 1.167 |
| 3 | Welsh Fire | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -0.267 |
| 4 | Southern Brave | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0.44 |
| 5 | Manchester Super Giants | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0.042 |
Head-to-Head
Welsh Fire hold a commanding record in this fixture. From 5 meetings between these sides, Welsh Fire have won 3 to Manchester’s 2. More tellingly, Welsh Fire have won the last three consecutive matches against MSG – the most recent on 25 July 2026 where Welsh Fire chased down 167 to win by 5 wickets. The momentum in this rivalry is firmly with the visitors. For detailed H2H stats and projections, visit the full H2H page on Statz.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections rate this as a genuine coin-flip contest.
If Manchester bat first: Projected first-innings total of 147.2, match total of 283. Win probability – MSG 46.9%, WF 46.6%, tie/no result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 123 to 172.
If Welsh Fire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 145.3, match total of 281.7. Win probability – MSG 49.9%, WF 43.6%, tie/no result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 120 to 170.
The projections suggest Manchester gain a slight edge if they bowl first (49.9% win probability), while Welsh Fire prefer to bat second. Both projected match totals (282-283) sit just above the Old Trafford average of 274.6. Match total P10-P90 range: 255 to 310.
Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain
Captain: Rachin Ravindra (WF) – projected 64.5 fantasy points if Welsh Fire bat first. The New Zealand all-rounder has 145 runs at 36.25 average this season with a high score of 98, plus 3 wickets with his left-arm spin. Projected for 28.2 runs and 0.7 wickets – a dual threat that makes him the standout captain pick.
Vice Captain: Jos Buttler (MSG) – projected 63.9 fantasy points if Manchester bat first. The England star has 226 runs at 45.2 average this season with 5 sixes. Projected for 39.5 runs at a strike rate of 149.3 – the most explosive batter in this match.
Also consider:
- Josh Tongue (MSG) – projected 57.9 pts – 6 wickets this season, 80% hit rate for 1+ wicket
- Jordan Cox (WF) – projected 50.4 pts – 76 runs at 19.0 average, 50% hit rate for 20+ runs
- Lockie Ferguson (WF) – projected 47.3 pts – 6 wickets this season, 50% hit rate for 2+ wickets
Key Players
Jos Buttler (Manchester Super Giants)
Manchester’s most important player by a distance. Buttler has 226 runs at an average of 45.2 with 5 sixes – the only batter in this match averaging above 40. His last three scores of 63, 55 and 2 show he can deliver match-winning performances, though the recent low score is a concern. Projected for 39.5 runs at a strike rate of 149.3 – if he gets going, MSG will be very hard to stop.
Rachin Ravindra (Welsh Fire)
The New Zealand all-rounder has been Welsh Fire’s standout performer this season. With 145 runs at 36.25 average and a high score of 98, plus 3 wickets with his left-arm spin, Ravindra is a genuine match-winner on both sides of the ball. His last three scores of 98, 16 and 7 show he can take over a game when conditions suit, and his 75% hit rate for 1+ wicket makes him invaluable in the field.
Aiden Markram (Manchester Super Giants)
The South African captain has 117 runs at 23.4 average this season with a high score of 50. His last three scores of 32, 28 and 50 show improving form, and he has a 60% hit rate for 20+ runs – one of the most consistent performers in this Manchester lineup. Projected for 23.2 runs at a strike rate of 129.8.
Philip Salt (Welsh Fire)
Welsh Fire’s captain and opening batter has 104 runs at 26.0 average from 4 matches this season. His last three scores of 6, 5 and 46 show he can explode when he gets in, and he has a 50% hit rate for 30+ runs. Projected for 26.4 runs at a strike rate of 141.5 – a key player in Welsh Fire’s top order.
Conditions
Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Old Trafford with temperatures around 18 degrees Celsius at the start of play. Humidity is moderate at 55%. No rain is expected during the match. Wind is light at 3.2 km/h from the south-west – ideal conditions for cricket throughout the afternoon.
Who will win Manchester vs Welsh Fire?
Manchester Super Giants are slight favourites at 48.4% win probability, but this is a coin-flip contest. Welsh Fire’s superior form (3 wins from 4) and head-to-head record (3-2) make them genuinely dangerous, but Manchester’s home advantage and the slight edge if they bowl first (49.9% win probability) keeps this finely balanced.
The bookmakers reflect the tight nature of this match. Indicative odds show Manchester at around 1.85 and Welsh Fire at 1.95 – essentially a pick’em. The verdict leans Manchester, but nothing is guaranteed in T20 cricket.
Manchester’s three-match losing streak is a concern, but they have the firepower to turn it around quickly. Buttler’s form will be crucial – if he gets going, MSG can post a competitive total. Welsh Fire, meanwhile, have momentum and a proven ability to chase. The toss will matter here – expect the side batting second to have a slight advantage.
Best Bets and Bet Builder Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture:
- Jos Buttler 30+ runs – 60% season hit rate. The England star has the firepower to clear this line in any match.
- Rachin Ravindra 20+ runs – 50% season hit rate. The all-rounder is Welsh Fire’s most consistent performer with the bat.
- Josh Tongue 1+ wicket – 80% season hit rate. The Manchester bowler has taken a wicket in 4 of his 5 matches this season.
- Sonny Baker 2+ wickets – 60% season hit rate. The Manchester quick has been among the wickets regularly.
Manchester Super Giants vs Welsh Fire prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win Manchester Super Giants vs Welsh Fire?
A: Manchester Super Giants are slight favourites at 48.4% win probability according to Statz projections, but this is a coin-flip contest. Welsh Fire’s superior form (3 wins from 4) and head-to-head record (3-2) make them a genuine threat despite Manchester’s home advantage.
Q: What is the projected match total?
A: Statz projects a match total of around 282-283 runs. The first-innings P10-P90 range is 120-172 depending on which side bats first, with a full match total range of 255-310.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: The toss is unlikely to heavily favour either side, but the team batting second will have a slight edge. If Manchester win the toss, they should bowl first to chase under lights, where their win probability rises to 49.9%.
Q: Is Manchester Super Giants a good bet?
A: Manchester are slight favourites at 48.4% win probability, but they are on a three-match losing streak. Welsh Fire’s momentum and proven record in this fixture make them an attractive alternative. Neither side is a strong value bet at current odds – this is a genuine coin-flip match.