Los Angeles Knight Riders vs Texas Super Kings Preview – Major League Cricket 2026 | Statz
2nd July 2026
Los Angeles Knight Riders host Texas Super Kings at Fairgrounds Cricket Stadium in Pomona on Saturday 4 July, with first ball at 01:30 UTC. LAKR sit sixth in the MLC standings and are running out of room for error, while TSK arrive in third place and desperate to pull clear of the logjam at the top of the table. This one matters for both sides. For full head-to-head records, projections and lineups, visit the Los Angeles Knight Riders vs Texas Super Kings fixture page on Statz.
The Venue
Fairgrounds Cricket Stadium is a relatively new addition to the MLC circuit and Statz data covers just one match at this ground so far. That single contest produced an average match total of 218 runs – a notably low figure that signals this surface can be challenging for batters. Seam bowlers have dominated, accounting for 85.7% of wickets at an economy of 6.4, while spinners have been even more economical at 6.25 but have taken only 14.3% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as Bowler Friendly by Statz. Boundaries have made up just 46.8% of scoring, and the top scorer in the only match here came from the middle order.
For the home side specifically, LAKR have played one match at this venue and lost it. Their record reads W0 L1, with Rovman Powell top-scoring with 30 and Sunil Narine leading the wicket-takers with 2. TSK have no record at this ground at all. Check the Fairgrounds Cricket Stadium page on Statz for the latest venue data.
Form and Table
Los Angeles Knight Riders – 6th (P5 W2 L3, 4 pts, NRR +0.038)
LAKR have lost three of their last five and the wheels have come off badly in recent outings. They were bowled out for just 108 against Washington Freedom on 2 July, and their last three results make grim reading:
- 02 Jul vs WSF (H): L – LAKR 108/10 (17.5), WSF 110/4 (17.1)
- 28 Jun vs SO (H): L – LAKR 134/8 (20), SO 154/7 (20)
- 27 Jun vs MINY (H): L – LAKR 103/10 (17.5), MINY 144/6 (20)
- 21 Jun vs SO (H): W – LAKR 196/10 (20), SO 115/10 (15.3)
- 19 Jun vs SFU (H): W – LAKR 154/3 (13.4), SFU 150/7 (14)
Three consecutive defeats, two of them involving being bowled out inside 18 overs. The batting has been brittle and the pressure is mounting.
Texas Super Kings – 3rd (P6 W3 L3, 6 pts, NRR +0.021)
TSK are level on points with three other sides in the top four but hold the edge on net run rate over Washington Freedom. Their recent form is mixed – a narrow defeat to WSF on 28 June followed by two away wins before that:
- 28 Jun vs WSF (A): L – TSK 185/4 (20), WSF 187/9 (20)
- 26 Jun vs MINY (A): W – TSK 132/4 (19), MINY 127/9 (20)
- 25 Jun vs SFU (A): W – TSK 161/8 (20), SFU 139/10 (17.4)
- 22 Jun vs MINY (A): L – TSK 158/10 (19.2), MINY 162/2 (17.3)
- 20 Jun vs SFU (A): L – TSK 152/9 (20), SFU 153/3 (17.5)
Standings Snapshot
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco Unicorns | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | +0.489 |
| 2 | Seattle Orcas | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | +0.277 |
| 3 | Texas Super Kings | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | +0.021 |
| 4 | Washington Freedom | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -0.888 |
| 5 | MI New York | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +0.285 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Knight Riders | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +0.038 |
LAKR are two points adrift of the top four with fewer matches played than most sides above them. A win here is not just desirable – it is close to essential if they want to stay in contention.
Head-to-Head
Texas Super Kings have the better of this fixture historically. In four meetings recorded by Statz, TSK have won three to LAKR’s one. The last five results from LAKR’s perspective read L, L, W, L – a pattern that underlines TSK’s dominance in this matchup. A win for the home side on Saturday would represent a genuine upset against the historical trend. Full records are available on the Statz H2H page.
Statz Projections
The Statz projections give Texas Super Kings a clear edge regardless of the toss outcome.
If LAKR bat first: Projected first-innings total of 162.3, match total of 317.1. Win probability – LAKR 36.6%, TSK 61.4%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 127 to 193.
If TSK bat first: Projected first-innings total of 171.5, match total of 326.0. Win probability – LAKR 38.6%, TSK 59.4%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 146 to 198.
The model projects a match total of around 322 overall – well above the single-match venue average of 218, suggesting the model is drawing on broader surface data rather than the limited ground history. Either way, TSK are strong favourites in both scenarios. The projected captain pick from the Statz model is Jason Holder, who tops the projected Dream11 points chart in both batting-first scenarios with projections of 91.7 and 90.5 points respectively.
Competition Season Leaders
Top Run-Scorers – MLC 2026
| Player | Team | Runs | Inn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Owen | Washington Freedom | 343 | 6 |
| Lhuan-dre Pretorius | San Francisco Unicorns | 297 | 5 |
| Tim Seifert | Seattle Orcas | 266 | 6 |
| Shayan Jahangir | Seattle Orcas | 196 | 6 |
| Faf du Plessis | Texas Super Kings | 180 | 5 |
Top Wicket-Takers – MLC 2026
| Player | Team | Wkts | Inn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jasdeep Singh | Seattle Orcas | 12 | 6 |
| Ottneil Baartman | Seattle Orcas | 11 | 6 |
| Andre Russell | Los Angeles Knight Riders | 9 | 4 |
| Sunil Narine | Los Angeles Knight Riders | 9 | 5 |
| Corbin Bosch | MI New York | 8 | 4 |
LAKR Season Leaders
Runs: Colin Munro – 172 runs, avg 34.4, HS 64 | Andre Fletcher – 143 runs, avg 28.6, HS 44 | Rovman Powell – 102 runs, avg 20.4, HS 37
Wickets: Sunil Narine – 9 wkts, best 2 | Andre Russell – 9 wkts, best 4 | Shadley van Schalkwyk – 7 wkts, best 3
TSK Season Leaders
Runs: Faf du Plessis – 180 runs, avg 36.0, HS 113 | Rilee Rossouw – 145 runs, avg 24.17, HS 49 | Donovan Ferreira – 135 runs, avg 22.5, HS 45
Wickets: Amshi de Silva – 8 wkts, best 4 | Adam Milne – 7 wkts, best 2 | Hardus Viljoen – 4 wkts, best 1
Predicted XIs
Los Angeles Knight Riders (based on XI vs Washington Freedom, 2 Jul 2026)
- Colin Munro
- Andre Fletcher (wk)
- Jahmar Hamilton
- Rovman Powell
- Andre Russell
- Matthew Tromp
- Jason Holder (c)
- Sunil Narine
- Shadley van Schalkwyk
- Ali Khan
- Karthik Gattepalli
Texas Super Kings (based on most recent starting XI)
- Faf du Plessis (c)
- Saiteja Mukkamalla (wk)
- Rilee Rossouw
- Shubham Ranjane
- Wiaan Mulder
- Donovan Ferreira
- Milind Kumar
- Akeal Hosein
- Adam Milne
- Amshi de Silva
- Abhimanyu Lamba
These lineups are based on the most recent starting XI for each side. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain
Based on Statz projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:
Captain: Jason Holder (LAKR) – projected ~91.7 pts (LAKR bat first) / 90.5 pts (TSK bat first). The West Indian all-rounder tops the projections in both scenarios. Bowling at the death with genuine pace and contributing lower down the order, Holder’s dual-threat value makes him the standout captain option.
Vice Captain: Shadley van Schalkwyk (LAKR) – projected ~81.5 pts. The all-rounder has taken 7 wickets this season at a 1+ wicket hit rate of 80%, and his projected 1.47 wickets per match leads all bowlers in the model. A reliable source of points across both disciplines.
Also consider:
- Faf du Plessis (TSK) – projected ~79.8 pts (TSK bat first) – 180 season runs, HS 113, 40% hit rate for 20+ runs
- Sunil Narine (LAKR) – projected ~79.0 pts – 9 season wickets, 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket, 80% for 2+
- Donovan Ferreira (TSK) – projected ~74.2 pts (TSK bat first) – 135 season runs, projected strike rate of 173.2
Key Players
Jason Holder (Los Angeles Knight Riders)
The LAKR captain is the model’s top projected performer and the most important player in this side. Holder has 77 runs this season alongside a 60% hit rate for taking 1+ wicket per match. His last three scores of 0, 21 and 5 show the bat has been quiet recently, but the bowling has remained consistent. With LAKR needing a big performance to stay in contention, Holder’s leadership and all-round ability are central to any hope of a win.
Sunil Narine (Los Angeles Knight Riders)
Narine has been LAKR’s most reliable wicket-taker this season – nine wickets from five innings with a 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket and 80% for 2+. His last three returns of 1, 2 and 2 wickets show consistent pressure. On a bowler-friendly surface with a low economy rate of 6.25 for spinners at this venue, Narine could be the difference-maker.
Faf du Plessis (Texas Super Kings)
The TSK captain leads the side’s run-scoring with 180 runs at an average of 36.0 and a high score of 113 this season. He sits fifth in the MLC competition run charts. His last three scores of 40, 13 and 8 suggest he is due a big one, and his 40% hit rate for 20+ runs across five matches this season underlines his consistency at the top of the order.
Adam Milne (Texas Super Kings)
The New Zealand quick has been TSK’s most penetrative seamer with 7 wickets from five innings. His 1+ wicket hit rate stands at 80% and he has taken 2+ wickets in 60% of his matches this season – the best such rate among TSK bowlers. On a surface where seam has accounted for 85.7% of wickets, Milne is a key weapon.
Verdict and Betting Angles
The Statz model gives Texas Super Kings a 60.4% win probability overall, with LAKR at 37.6%. That is a strong lean – not a marginal call. TSK hold a 3-1 H2H advantage, they are in better form, their batting lineup is deeper, and their bowling attack is more varied. LAKR have been bowled out twice in their last three matches and their batting has looked fragile against quality opposition.
The one caveat is home advantage and the threat of Andre Russell, who has taken 9 wickets from just 4 innings this season with a 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket and 50% for 2+. If Russell fires with both bat and ball, LAKR are capable of turning this around. But the weight of evidence points firmly to TSK.
Verdict: Texas Super Kings to win. The Statz model rates this a strong call at 60.4%. TSK’s superior depth, H2H record and consistent bowling attack make them the side to be with here – nothing is guaranteed in T20 cricket, but the data leans clearly in one direction.
Bet Builder Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture. With best_bets data limited, the following angles are drawn from the season hit rate data:
- Sunil Narine 1+ wicket – 100% season hit rate across 5 matches. The most consistent bowling line in this game from either side.
- Andre Russell 1+ wicket – 100% season hit rate across 4 matches. Taken at least one wicket every time he has bowled this season.
- Colin Munro 20+ runs – 100% season hit rate across 5 matches. The LAKR opener has reached 20 in every single innings this season – the standout batting line in this fixture.
- Sunil Narine 2+ wickets – 80% season hit rate. Stepping up to two wickets still has strong backing from the data.
- Adam Milne 1+ wicket – 80% season hit rate. TSK’s most reliable wicket-taker has struck in four of his five outings.