Ligue 1 Tips 2025/26 Preview

15th August 2025

It’s hard to see past current Champions League holders PSG for a fifth consecutive Ligue 1 crown. Yet, main challengers Monaco and Marseille have been far more active in the transfer market, and PSG’s short summer break after the Club World Cup could test their early-season sharpness. Adding to the intrigue is the return of the Parisian derby, with newly promoted Paris FC joining the top flight. With the league kicking off on Friday, August 15th, Statz.ai’s projected league table gives us a glimpse of the season ahead — and where the betting value may lie.

Ligue 1 Season Preview Image

New Signings

Paul Pogba’s move to Monaco is the story of the Ligue 1 transfer window. Donnarumma’s likely PSG exit after being left out of the Super Cup is a close second though. Monaco have also added Ansu Fati and Eric Dier, joining the likes of Minamino and Biereth already at the club. Last season’s runners-up Marseille have signed Paixão, Angel Gomes, and Timothy Weah. PSG were quiet, adding Zabarnyi from Bournemouth and keeper Chevalier from Lille, who have brought the 2011/12 Ligue 1 Top Goalscorer Olivier Giroud back to France.

Top Contenders

Marseille and Monaco face a huge task to cut last season’s 19-point gap to PSG. Statz.ai’s projections suggest the race will be tighter, but the champions are still clear favourites. Monaco are tipped to edge Marseille for second place. A shock title — their first since 2016/17 — looks unlikely, yet they still offer the best odds of toppling PSG. The final projected league table separates Monaco and Marseille by five points with the same or similar for third to fourth (Nice) and then fifth (Lyon) making a Monaco and Marseille top-three double quite an attractive proposition.

Statz.ai Top of the Table Tips (Bet365)

Promoted Teams

Some excitement to see Paris FC in the Ligue 1 after 46 years and the acquisition of Porto FC’s Otavio for a reported 17 million Euros signals their intent to survive. Statz.ai predicts that they will be able to achieve that with a 15th placed finish. FC Lorient and FC Metz return to the top flight after just the one year down in Ligue 2.

Relegation Candidates

All three promoted teams may escape the immediate return to the second tier with last season’s strugglers Le Havre expected to finish bottom, with Angers SCO joining them on a low projected points total of 25. Above the automatic relegation places FC Metz may find things tough and are predicted to have the second worst defence in the league.

Top Goalscorer Outrights

Marseilles’ Mason Greenwood and PSG’s Moussa Dembele are expected to battle it out for top scorer again after ending last season neck-to-neck with 21 goals a piece. Monaco’s Mika Biereth scored 0.72 goals per game last season after winter transfer window move and is an attractive 12/1 for top scorer (Bet365) this campaign outside of the two favourites.

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