Leicestershire vs Durham Preview – T20 Blast 2026 | Statz

7th July 2026

Leicestershire host Durham at Grace Road on Tuesday for a T20 Blast clash with both sides fighting to stay in contention. First ball is at 17:30 BST on 8 July.

Leicestershire sit 16th in the table on 12 points from 9 matches, having won just three games. Durham are marginally better off in 15th, also on 12 points but from the same number of matches, with a superior net run rate of 0.335 to Leicestershire’s -1.427. Both sides have six group matches remaining and need to arrest their slide if they are to have any realistic chance of reaching the quarter-finals. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Leicestershire vs Durham fixture page on Statz.

The Venue

Grace Road has been a run-fest this season. Across the last 10 T20 matches here, the average match total stands at 332.3 and the average first-innings score is 181.4. Leicestershire as hosts have won 40% of their matches at this ground since 2021 – a modest home record that reflects their overall struggles this season.

Seam bowlers have dominated the wicket-taking, accounting for 64.3% of dismissals at an economy rate of 8.8, while spinners have been more economical at 8.64 but take just 30.8% of wickets. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz. The most recent T20 at this ground saw Nottinghamshire beat Leicestershire by 74 runs on 28 June (NOT 209/4, LEI 135/10).

Form and Table

Leicestershire – 16th (P9 W3 L6, 12 pts)

Leicestershire have been in freefall. Three consecutive defeats heading into this match – losses to Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and Lancashire – have left them bottom-half and desperately short of momentum:

Durham – 15th (P9 W3 L6, 12 pts)

Durham’s form is equally concerning. Two defeats in their last three away matches – losses to Nottinghamshire and Yorkshire – have stalled any momentum they might have built:

Standings Snapshot

Pos Team P W L Pts NRR
1 Northamptonshire 9 8 1 32 1.288
2 Hampshire 9 7 2 28 0.635
3 Nottinghamshire 10 7 3 28 0.188
…
15 Durham 9 3 6 12 0.335
16 Leicestershire 9 3 6 12 -1.427
17 Sussex 9 2 7 8 -1.487

This is a genuine six-pointer. Both sides are fighting for survival in the group stage, and a win here could prove crucial in the battle to avoid the wooden spoon and maintain any hope of a quarter-final berth.

Head-to-Head

The all-time record between these two sides is relatively balanced. In nine meetings since 2021 (Statz data), Leicestershire have won five to Durham’s three, with one no-result. However, recent form tells a different story – Durham have won two of the last three encounters, including a dominant 218/6 away at Middlesex on 28 June.

At Grace Road specifically, the record is level at 2-2 from four meetings. Leicestershire won here in June 2023 and July 2025, while Durham won in June 2024 and May 2022. Durham’s away record at this venue since 2021 reads W2 L2 – nothing to suggest they cannot compete on this ground.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections give Durham a slight edge in what is otherwise a tightly matched contest.

If Leicestershire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 174.8, match total of 338.2. Win probability – LEI 42.9%, DUR 55.1%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 139 to 207.

If Durham bat first: Projected first-innings total of 178.4, match total of 341.7. Win probability – LEI 47.8%, DUR 50.2%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 147 to 208.

Both projected match totals (338-342) sit just above the Grace Road average of 332.3, suggesting the model rates both attacks as reasonably strong. The projected first-innings totals of around 175-178 are slightly below the venue average of 181.4 – expect a competitive pitch that rewards discipline. Match total P10-P90 range: 262 to 349.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap – Top 5 Run-Scorers

Player Team Runs Inn
Beau Webster Warwickshire 552 10
George Munsey Nottinghamshire 460 10
Alex Lees Durham 385 9
Liam Livingstone Lancashire 379 8
James Rew Somerset 372 7

Purple Cap – Top 5 Wicket-Takers

Player Team Wkts Inn
Hasan Ali Yorkshire 22 9
Mohammad Ali Nottinghamshire 19 10
Scott Currie Hampshire 18 9
James Sales Northamptonshire 18 9
Andrew Tye Yorkshire 17 10

Leicestershire Season Leaders

Runs: Nick Kelly – 243 runs, avg 27.0, HS 61 | Ashton Turner – 212 runs, avg 23.56, HS 57 | Ben Cox – 187 runs, avg 20.78, HS 51

Wickets: Ben Green – 10 wkts, best 2 | Liam Trevaskis – 9 wkts, best 2 | Rehan Ahmed – 7 wkts, best 3

Durham Season Leaders

Runs: Alex Lees – 385 runs, avg 42.78, HS 108 | Graham Clark – 214 runs, avg 23.78, HS 62 | Ollie George Robinson – 158 runs, avg 17.56, HS 48

Wickets: Matty Potts – 15 wkts, best 3 | Callum Parkinson – 14 wkts, best 3 | Kasey Aldridge – 13 wkts, best 3

Predicted XIs

Leicestershire (based on recent XI)

  1. Stevie Eskinazi
  2. Rishi Patel
  3. Rehan Ahmed
  4. Nick Kelly
  5. Ashton Turner
  6. Ben Cox (wk)
  7. Ben Green (c)
  8. Liam Trevaskis
  9. Josh Hull
  10. Josh Davey
  11. Alex Green

Durham (based on recent XI)

  1. Graham Clark
  2. Alex Lees (c)
  3. David Bedingham
  4. Ben McKinney
  5. Ollie George Robinson (wk)
  6. Colin Ackermann
  7. Kasey Aldridge
  8. Ben Raine
  9. Matty Potts
  10. Nathan Sowter
  11. Callum Parkinson

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:

Captain: Matty Potts (DUR) – projected ~95 pts. The all-rounder has been Durham’s standout performer with 15 wickets this season at an average of 1.88 per match. He has taken 1+ wicket in 75% of matches and 2+ wickets in 62.5% – a bowler in exceptional form who also contributes with the bat.

Vice Captain: Ben Raine (DUR) – projected ~91 pts. The seamer has 10 wickets from 5 matches and projects for 1.63 wickets per game with a strong economy rate of 8.15. A reliable all-rounder option with both batting and bowling upside.

Also consider:

Key Players

Alex Lees (Durham)

Durham’s standout batter and the competition’s third-highest run-scorer with 385 runs at an average of 42.78. Lees has been in exceptional form – his last three scores of 108, 73 and 44 demonstrate a player in complete control. The Statz bet builder shows Lees has hit 20+ runs in 66.7% of matches this season and 30+ runs in the same proportion – a genuinely elite consistency rate that makes him the most bankable batter in this fixture.

Matty Potts (Durham)

The Purple Cap race is led by Hasan Ali with 22 wickets, but Matty Potts is right in the conversation with 15 wickets from just 8 matches. His strike rate is extraordinary – he has taken 1+ wicket in 75% of matches and 2+ wickets in 62.5%. His last three returns of 3, 0 and 3 wickets show a bowler who can single-handedly dismantle an opposition batting order. He is the key to Durham’s bowling attack.

Nick Kelly (Leicestershire)

Leicestershire’s leading run-scorer with 243 runs at an average of 27.0 and a high score of 61. Kelly has been the most consistent batter for the home side, though his 66.7% hit rate for 20+ runs suggests he is capable of bigger scores. In a side struggling for form, Kelly remains a bright spot and will be crucial to Leicestershire’s chances here.

Callum Parkinson (Durham)

The off-spinner has taken 14 wickets this season and boasts an 88.9% hit rate for taking 1+ wicket – one of the most reliable bowlers in the competition. His ability to control the middle overs and pick up crucial breakthroughs makes him a vital cog in Durham’s bowling machine, especially on a Balanced pitch where spin will play a role.

Conditions

Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Grace Road with temperatures around 21 degrees at the start and humidity at 56%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 4.2 km/h from the south-west – conditions that should favour cricket throughout the afternoon and early evening.

Verdict and Betting Angles

This is a genuine toss-up between two sides fighting for their T20 Blast lives. The Statz projections give Durham a slight lean – 52.7% win probability to Leicestershire’s 45.4% – and their recent form, particularly Alex Lees‘ exceptional run of form and Matty Potts‘ bowling prowess, makes them the marginally better-backed side.

However, Leicestershire have home advantage and Grace Road’s high-scoring nature could suit their batting lineup. The projected match total of 340 sits comfortably above the venue average, suggesting runs will be on offer for both sides.

I am leaning Durham here. Their bowling attack – led by Potts, Parkinson and Raine – is stronger than Leicestershire’s, and Lees’ form with the bat gives them a clear edge in the batting department. A win here would be huge for their quarter-final hopes.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture: