John Deere Classic 2026 Power Rankings
1st July 2026
The John Deere Classic 2026 rolls into TPC Deere Run this week with 155 players chasing what historically sits among the PGA Tour’s lowest winning totals. The Statz model has crunched the numbers – blending recent form, course fit, course setup suitability, course history, and strokes gained profiles – to produce our definitive power rankings for Silvis.
Here are the 10 players best positioned to contend this week.
John Deere Classic 2026 Power Rankings
10. Davis Thompson
The 2024 champion knows how to win at TPC Deere Run better than anyone in this field. Davis Thompson posted a ridiculous -28 here two years ago and carries a course history score of 0.73. The model projects him at -18 with a 2.3% win probability and 15.8% top-10 chance. His recent form has cooled slightly, but course knowledge and comfort count for plenty at a venue where he dismantled the field not long ago.
9. Michael Thorbjornsen
Michael Thorbjornsen finished T2 here in 2024 at -24 and returns with a massive 0.95 course setup score. His game translates beautifully to what TPC Deere Run asks – he is projected at -18 with a 2.3% win probability. The young American is building an impressive track record at this venue, and his blend of length and precision fits the par-71 layout perfectly.
8. Aldrich Potgieter
The South African teenager continues to force his way into conversations at PGA Tour events. Aldrich Potgieter leads the entire field with a 0.97 course setup score and gains 0.66 strokes off the tee over his last 24 rounds. His projected finish of -18 comes with a 2.4% win probability. Recent form sits at 0.68 – strong and trending upward. He is raw in places, but the ceiling is enormous.
7. Rico Hoey
Rico Hoey has quietly become one of the most consistent performers on tour this season. His course history score of 0.71 shows he has handled TPC Deere Run well before, and the model projects him at -19 with a 2.9% win probability and 17.5% top-10 chance. His recent form rating of 0.55 is solid, and his all-round game has no glaring holes to exploit on a course that rewards balance.
6. Rickie Fowler
The fan favourite arrives in Silvis with genuine credentials. Rickie Fowler carries a 0.71 course history score and a 0.70 course fit rating – his putting touch and iron play marry up nicely with the 34.8% putting and 30.8% approach demand profile here. Projected at -19 with a 3.1% win probability, Fowler has the game and the experience to feature prominently on Sunday.
5. Keith Mitchell
Keith Mitchell is surging at the right time. His last-16-round strokes gained total sits at +1.01, placing him ninth in the field on recent form. The model gives him a 0.92 course setup score and projects -20 with a 3.4% win probability and 18.2% top-10 chance. Mitchell has the length to overpower TPC Deere Run and the putting chops to capitalise on scoring opportunities. He is a live threat all week.
4. Kevin Yu
Kevin Yu might be the most well-rounded player in this field. His last-24-round profile shows gains in approach (+0.30), off the tee (+0.36), and around the green (+0.12) – he does everything competently. A 0.71 course history score confirms he has played well here before. Projected at -20 with a 4.0% win probability and 19.5% top-10 chance, Yu is a model darling this week for good reason.
3. Chris Gotterup
Big things are expected from Chris Gotterup this week. His 0.96 course setup score trails only Potgieter in the field, and his last-16-round form of +1.09 strokes gained total shows a player in excellent nick. The model projects -20 with a 4.1% win probability. Gotterup gains 0.68 strokes putting and 0.35 off the tee over his last 24 rounds – a potent combination on a course where the flat stick is king.
2. Ben Griffin
Ben Griffin has elite putting numbers and a history of going low at TPC Deere Run. His T5 finish at -23 in 2024 proved he can handle this venue, and his current putting form of +0.78 strokes gained per round is outstanding. Projected at -20 with a 4.4% win probability and 19.9% top-10 chance, Griffin has the flat-stick firepower to torch a course that gives 34.8% of its scoring variance to the putter.
1. Eric Cole
Eric Cole sits atop the Statz model projections and it is hard to argue against him. He leads the field in projected score at -22, holds a 6.9% win probability and 21.8% top-10 chance – the highest marks in both categories. His strokes gained profile over the last 24 rounds reads +0.80 putting and +0.57 approach, which is precisely the combination TPC Deere Run rewards most. A course fit score of 0.75 and a recent form rating of 0.78 – the best in the field – seal the deal. Cole is the man to beat this week.
Honourable Mentions
Pierceson Coody ranks 11th in the model with a 0.93 course setup score and deserves to be on your radar. Hayden Springer combines a 0.75 course fit with a 0.69 course history rating and finished T7 here in 2024 at -21. Max Greyserman brings a 0.75 course fit score and the ball-striking to compete on this layout. Beau Hossler rounds out the 14th spot in model projections. And then there is Max Homa – the hottest mover in the field with a +2.86 strokes gained delta, backed by a 0.87 course fit score that ranks among the best at TPC Deere Run. If Homa’s recent surge carries into Thursday, he could gatecrash this top 10 in a hurry.
Dive into the full projections, field analysis, and model breakdowns on the John Deere Classic tournament page at Statz.