Inter v AC Milan: Predictions, Betting Tips & Statz Preview

21st November 2025

Just two points separate Inter and AC Milan at the summit of the Serie A table.

That adds an extra layer of intrigue to what is already one of the fiercest rivalries in world football when they meet on Sunday at the San Siro (19:45 GMT).

So who will claim the bragging rights and the all-important three points?

Inter Milan vs AC Milan: Preview

Inter have generally been the more progressive of the two Milan outfits in recent times, winning the Serie A title in 2023/24 before reaching the Champions League final in 2025 (admittedly getting a good tonking from PSG).

Last season, AC Milan finished eighth in Serie A – their worst campaign in a decade.

But here’s a fun anomaly to intrigue punters: Inter haven’t beaten AC Milan in any of their last five attempts. Will the hoodoo end on Sunday?

Inter Milan vs AC Milan: Statz Projections

This is one of those rare occasions when home advantage isn’t a factor – both these sides play at the San Siro, remember, but even so our projections model makes Inter a 1.86-1.25 favourite in terms of expected goal supremacy.

Indeed, it’s Inter that will deliver the most action-packed performance of the pair – as per our machine learning model – with the Nerazzurri expected to dominate the shot, corner, tackle and foul count.

But we’re also expecting Christian Chivu’s side to come out on top in the all-important metric: winning the game.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Betting Tips & Predictions

One of the more intriguing projections from the Statz model is for Inter Milan to have 5.20 shots on target on Sunday.

There is then scope for a bet on AC Milan’s goalkeeper, likely to be Mike Maignan, to make four or more saves – available at odds of 6/5.

As we switch to the player projections model, another slice of possible value emerges. We’re projecting Alessandro Bastoni to commit 1.91 fouls. Can we round that up to two?

Well, that’s a selection that would have landed in four of his last five outings… this is a centre back that loves getting stuck in. So, Bastoni to commit two or more fouls (5/6, bet365) seems a fair bet.

We’re expecting Inter to have somewhere in the region of 16 or more shots in this game, with two players that we expect to start modelling very nicely as the main contenders: Lautaro Martinez and Hakan Calhanoglu.

Martinez has had three or more shots in four of his last five outings for an 80% hit rate; our projections put him at 3.37 for this Milan derby.

Calhanoglu, meanwhile, is Inter’s main set piece taker and has a Statz projection of 2.47 for shots at goal on Sunday. He loves a long-range effort, so two or more shots for the Turk – which has landed in four of his last five – seems viable.

Double up Martinez 3+ shots and Calhanoglu 2+ shots at odds of around 6/4.

And if you really want to get some skin in what will surely be a fascinating game, you can bundle these selections together in a Bet Builder at a juicy 7/1.

·   Mike Maignan 4+ Saves

·   Alessandro Bastoni 2+ Fouls

·   Lautaro Martinez 3+ Shots

·   Hakan Calhanoglu 2+ Shots