GT vs RR Prediction – IPL 2026 Match Preview

2nd April 2026

Gujarat Titans host Rajasthan Royals at Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad on Saturday April 4 (3pm GMT). GT are carrying the weight of an early-season loss – they’re 0-1 after being beaten by PBKS in their IPL 2026 opener – while RR arrive top of the table having beaten CSK. The Statz model favours GT at 63% vs 35% for RR, with 100% model confidence. GT have home advantage and the model is firmly behind them, but RR’s current form and the firepower of Vaibhav Suryavanshi at the top make this more interesting than the probabilities suggest.

Venue

The Narendra Modi Stadium is the largest cricket ground in the world and a genuine high-scoring venue. Across 30 T20 matches (2023-2026), first innings average 185.2 runs and teams batting first win 52.7%. The boundary rate is 62.3% – one of the highest on the circuit – and the ground averages 15.9 sixes per match. Pace dominates with 69% of wickets, while both seam (9.68) and spin (9.45) economies are very similar. The 1.07x sixes factor for GT reflects the big-ground, big-bat conditions. Statz projects 383 runs total against a 373 ground average. Sixes are coming, whoever bats first.

Form and H2H

Gujarat Titans form makes uncomfortable reading: L L L L W across their last five, with that sole win just before losing their IPL 2026 opener to PBKS. They’re on home turf now, which matters in a ground where the toss advantage is marginal (52.7% bat-first) but the crowd factor is real. Rajasthan Royals go W W L L L – won their most recent two after a mid-season dip last campaign, and opened IPL 2026 with that win over CSK. They’re early-season favourites and 1-0 on the campaign. The 28-point model gap (63% vs 35%) suggests GT’s home advantage and squad depth outweigh RR’s current momentum in the model’s assessment.

Statz Projections

GT are projected 63% winners. Two players lead GT’s D11 table almost equally: Jason Holder at 103.9 and Sai Sudharsan at 102.0. For RR, Vaibhav Suryavanshi leads at 96.1 D11 with a projected 218.6 SR – the most explosive batting projection in this match. The model projects a 194-run first innings, exactly matching the ground average. Full projections at Statz Cricket.

Predicted Lineups

Gujarat Titans (likely XI): Shubman Gill (c), Sai Sudharsan, Glenn Phillips, Washington Sundar, Jos Buttler (wk), Tom Banton, Anuj Rawat, Jason Holder, Shahrukh Khan, Rahul Tewatia, Kumar Kushagra. Check the fixture page for confirmed changes post-toss.

Rajasthan Royals (likely XI): Riyan Parag (c), Vaibhav Suryavanshi, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Dhruv Jurel (wk), Shimron Hetmyer, Donovan Ferreira, Dasun Shanaka, Ravindra Jadeja, Jofra Archer, Lhuan-dre Pretorius, Shubham Dubey. Check the fixture page for confirmed changes post-toss.

Key Players

Jason Holder (GT) – The joint-top D11 in this match at 103.9. The West Indian all-rounder delivers 20.6 runs at 156.7 SR and a full 3.5 overs at 9.7 economy with 1.4 wickets. His wicket projection is the highest for any bowler in this match. A pace bowler at a pace-dominant ground (69% of wickets) with the highest individual wicket projection – Holder is the primary bowling target for this fixture.

Sai Sudharsan (GT) – 102.0 D11. The young Indian batter projects for 54.3 runs at 145.7 SR, 5.6 fours and 1.6 sixes across 37 balls. That 54.3 projected runs is the highest batting projection in this match. Sudharsan has been in excellent IPL form and at his home ground, batting at the top of a GT lineup with serious batting depth, he’s the primary batting angle for the home side.

Vaibhav Suryavanshi (RR) – RR’s standout at 96.1 D11 with a 218.6 projected SR – by far the highest strike rate projection in this match. The model has him for 44.1 runs from just 20 balls with 4.2 sixes. At a ground with a 1.07x sixes factor, Suryavanshi coming out at 220 SR in the powerplay is a fantasy and a prop market in one. The caveat – with high SR comes high variance.

Yashasvi Jaiswal (RR) – 83.1 D11. Projected 38.4 runs at 157.2 SR with 4.5 fours and 1.8 sixes. RR’s other opening batter provides the more reliable anchor alongside Suryavanshi’s fireworks. At a ground where chasing is viable (52.7% bat-first), Jaiswal setting a platform if RR chase is a consistent scoring angle.

Washington Sundar (GT) – 76.2 D11 with all-round contribution: 20.0 runs at 133.0 SR and 2.8 overs at 9.6 economy with 0.8 wickets. Sundar adds spin variety to a GT attack where pace dominates the wicket-taking. His off-spin at Ahmedabad – where spin economy (9.45) nearly matches pace (9.68) – is more competitive than most grounds in this fixture list.

Verdict

Gujarat Titans at 63% with full model confidence is a strong call, backed by home advantage and arguably the best batting player in the match (Sudharsan). The concern is GT’s recent run – four losses before their last win is a serious confidence question mark. RR are the table leaders, won their opener against CSK, and Suryavanshi at 218 SR in powerplay overs is a genuine match-turner. Lean GT on the model and home advantage, but the real edge is in player props – Sudharsan runs, Holder wickets, Suryavanshi sixes are the highest-value individual markets.

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